Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014     

A stochastic model for burn‐in procedures in accelerated environment

Burn‐in procedure is a manufacturing technique that is intended to eliminate early failures of system or product. Burning‐in a component or system means to subject it to a period of use prior to being used in field. Generally, burn‐in is considered expensive and so the length of burn‐in is typically limited. Thus, burn‐in is most often accomplished in an accelerated environment in order to shorten the burn‐in process. A new failure rate model for an accelerated burn‐in procedure, which incorporates the accelerated ageing process induced by the accelerated environmental stress, is proposed. Under a more general assumption on the shape of failure rate function of products, which includes the traditional bathtub‐shaped failure rate function as a special case, upper bounds for optimal burn‐in time will be derived. A numerical example will also be given for illustration. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Designing a screening experiment for highly reliable products

Within a reasonable life‐testing time, how to improve the reliability of highly reliable products is one of the great challenges to today's manufacturers. By using a resolution III experiment together with degradation test, Tseng, Hamada, and Chiao (1995) presented an interesting case study of improving the reliability of fluorescent lamps. However, in conducting such an experiment, they did not address the problem of how to choose the optimal settings of variables, such as sample size, inspection frequency, and termination time for each run, which are influential to the correct identification of significant factors and the experimental cost. Assuming that the product's degradation paths satisfy Wiener processes, this paper proposes a systematic approach to the aforementioned problem. First, an intuitively appealing identification rule is proposed. Next, under the constraints of a minimum probability of correct decision and a maximum probability of incorrect decision of the proposed identification rule, the optimum test plan (including the determinations of inspection frequency, sample size, and termination time for each run) can be obtained by minimizing the total experimental cost. An example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 514–526, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10024     

分段履带式水陆两栖车减阻增速试验及数值仿真

为了研究分段履带式水陆两栖车的水动力性能,实现减阻增速,将尾翼板安装到水陆两栖车的方艉部,并开展了水池试验和仿真研究,两者的研究结果具有较好的一致性。通过仿真研究了车体的纵向重心位置、尾翼板的长度和角度对水陆两栖车阻力性能的影响,并分析了阻力成分的变化趋势。研究结果表明:车体纵向重心位置在540～560 mm 时,车体所受水阻力最小;在速度为3～5 m/s时,长度为156 mm,与水平面夹角为10°的尾翼板减阻效果最明显,相比于原裸车体的阻力,减阻率达到34.3%;加装尾翼板可以增加车体的尾部中空区长度,相当于增加了水线长,增大了长宽比。该研究表明:适当调节重心位置和优化尾翼板参数,可以有效实现水陆两栖车的减阻增速。     

A note on defence spending in turkey: New findings

The relationship between defence spending and economic growth has been examined extensively in recent years using the Feder (1983) model. These studies suffer from poor statistical results. In this paper, the earlier findings of Sezgin (1997), which used the Feder model are re‐estimated. Firstly, the stationarity of variables is tested. Due to the non‐stationarity of some variables, regressions are performed using first differences of variables. Secondly, lags are introduced into the Feder model. The statistical results are highly improved. Not only is a strong positive association between defence spending and economic growth found for Turkey, but also human capital is positively correlated to Turkish economic growth with a lag.     

Alternative models of Greek defence expenditures

This paper models and estimates Greek defence spending over the 1950–1989 period. It employs the Stone‐Geary welfare function and estimates levels of defence expenditures by the Engle‐Granger two‐step procedure. The Dickey‐Fuller test regression for cointegration is specified in terms of the significance of additional augmentations. The Deaton‐Muellbauer functional form is then employed and an estimating equation for the expenditure share of defence is derived. This specification is compared with the levels equation through a number of non‐nested tests involving model transformation.     

基于改进March SS算法的存储器测试技术研究

摘要：针对存储器的特点,介绍了存储器简化的功能故障模型．基于一种既可以测试静态简化故障又可以测试动态简化故障的MarchSS算法,提出了一种改进的存储器测试算法MarchSSI算法．该算法不仅能测出MarchSS算法测试的所有功能故障,而且能够覆盖MarchSS算法遗漏的故障,使算法故障覆盖率有了一定的提高．通过仿真,验证了算法的可行性．     

语言测试的反拨效应与英语测试改革的几点建议

目前,我国英语测试种类繁多,并对教学产生了一些负面影响,致使英语教学存在着一定的应试倾向,而语言测试的正反拨效应,即以测试促进教学的作用却没有得到充分体现。如何使测试对教学起到促进作用,解决此问题的关键就是修改英语测试的题型,使题型多样化,尽量采用能考查学生语言应用水平的题型,并增设英语口语水平测试。通过语言测试的正反拨效应促进英语教学,提高英语教学质量。     

FE modeling of concrete beams and columns reinforced with FRP composites

Compression and flexure members such as columns and beams are critical in a structure as its failure could lead to the collapse of the structure. In the present work, numerical analysis of square and circle short columns, and reinforced concrete (RC) beams reinforced withfiber reinforced polymer composites are carried out. This work is divided into two parts. In thefirst part, numerical study of axial behavior of square and circular concrete columns reinforced with Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) and Basalt Fiber Reinforced Polymer (BFRP)bars and spiral, and Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) wraps is conducted. The results of the first part showed that the axial capacity of the circular RC columns rein-forced with GFRP increases with the increase of the longitudinal reinforcement ratio. In addition, the results of the numerical analysis showed good correlation with the experimental ones. An interaction diagram for BFRP RC columns is also developed with considering various eccentricities. The results of numerical modeling of RC columns strengthened with CFRP wraps revealed that the number and the spacing between the CFRP wraps provide different levels of ductility enhancement to the column. For the cases considered in this study, column with two middle closely spaced CFRP wraps demonstrated the best performance. In the second part of this research,flexural behavior of RC beams reinforced with BFRP, GFRP and CFRP bars is investigated along with validation of the numerical model with the experimental tests. The results resembled the experimental observations that indicate significant effect of the FRP bar diameter and type ont he flexural capacity of the RC beams. It was also shown that Increasing the number of bars while keeping the same reinforcement ratio enhanced the stiffness of the RC beam.     

Modeling of the whole process of shock wave overpressure of free-field air explosion

The waveform of the explosion shock wave under free-field air explosion is an extremely complex problem. It is generally considered that the waveform consists of overpressure peak, positive pressure zone and negative pressure zone. Most of current practice usually considers only the positive pressure. Many empirical relations are available to predict overpressure peak, the positive pressure action time and pressure decay law. However, there are few models that can predict the whole waveform. The whole process of explosion shock wave overpressure, which was expressed as the product of the three factor functions of peak, attenuation and oscillation, was proposed in the present work. According to the principle of explosion similarity, the scaled parameters were introduced and the empirical formula was absorbed to form a mathematical model of shock wave overpressure. Parametric numerical simulations of free-field air explosions were conducted. By experimental verification of the AUTODYN numerical method and comparing the analytical and simulated curves, the model is proved to be accurate to calculate the shock wave overpressure under free-field air explosion. In addition, through the model the shock wave overpressure at different time and distance can be displayed in three dimensions. The model makes the time needed for theoretical calculation much less than that for numerical simulation.