TERRORIST THREATS AND TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL

Previous research has shown that the duration of a civil war is in part a function of how it ends: in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement. We present a model of how protagonists in a civil war choose to stop fighting. Hypotheses derived from this theory relate the duration of a civil war to its outcome as well as characteristics of the civil war and the civil war nation. Findings from a competing risk model reveal that the effects of predictors on duration vary according to whether the conflict ended in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement.     

Nuclear weapons,existential threats,and the stability–instability paradox

Recent scholarship has largely ignored systematic differences in the existential threats that nuclear-weapon possessors pose to other states. This study theorizes that the capacity to pose existential threats shapes nuclear-armed states’ willingness to use military force against one another. We explore three hypotheses regarding how nuclear-based existential threats can deter conflict or encourage it, including under the conditions proposed by the stability–instability paradox. We rely on a statistical analysis of nuclear-armed dyads from 1950 to 2001 and employ the Nuclear Annihilation Threat (NAT) Index to capture variation in the existential threats nuclear-armed states pose to one another. We find that being able to pose an existential threat to another state emboldens potential initiators to use military force but does not deter attacks. The emboldening effects are particularly strong under the hypothesized conditions of the stability–instability paradox. Our study provides unique contributions to ongoing debates over the political effects of nuclear weapons.     

CIVIL SOCIETY AND VIOLENCE—HOW TO MANAGE IN THE TOWNSHIPS WITHOUT THE ARMY

This article discusses the validity of national security threats in Botswana and whether they justified the creation of the Directorate of Intelligence and Security Services (DISS), which has been controversial since its formation. Since its inception in 2008, the DISS has been accused of many human rights violations and politicisation. Without fully deliberating on the basis for its creation, some discourses have focused on the politicised operations without relation to what the DISS is supposed to be doing. The author works under the assumption that debates should be shaped by whether it was necessary to create the DISS, and, if so, how we can shape and steer debates on its oversight, management, reform and operations. This article argues that despite the politicisation of the DISS, Botswana's national security threats are both real and imagined; and that domestic threats to national security have moved from the conceptual ‘imagined’ category to the ‘real’. However, that in itself did not warrant the design and mandate of the DISS, and the article argues that it was external threats that really warranted the creation of a civilian intelligence agency. The article concludes that Botswana faces a plethora of external security threats – traditional and non-traditional – that warranted the creation and continuance of the DISS.     

大口径舰炮将重展雄风

由于浅水战争和不对称威胁,要求在中短距离上攻击各种目标,但这种条件常常严重地阻碍了反舰导弹性能的发挥。同反舰导弹相比,大口径火炮要便宜得多,能更加即时地使用,且快速灵活,所以现在各大军事强国都在加紧研制新型大口径舰炮,重新考虑使用大口径火炮来代替反舰导弹,并且提供海上火力支援,使大口径舰炮重新登上战舰的舞台。为此,介绍了美国、德国、英国、意大利、俄罗斯、法国的大口径火炮研制情况。     

SECURITY GOVERNANCE IN SOUTH AFRICA

In the ten years since the establishment of South Africa's first inclusive democratic government, an ambitious, extensive and systematic process of reform has been carried out in the governance of security. The process is widely regarded as having been successful and a model for other processes of ‘security sector reform’ in the context of transitions from authoritarian forms of governance to democratic ones.

That this been achieved with hardly a shot fired in anger is a remarkable achievement and a credit to visionary political leadership as well as organisational capacity, in other words to effective security governance.

At the same time, progress has been uneven and sometimes fragmentary, policy intentions and commitments have not always been translated into practice, the end results have not been to everyone's liking, and transformation has engendered its own pathologies. Thus several challenges remain in improving security governance.

This article provides a broad overview of the roles played by the various actors in the governance of the security sector, including the executive, parliament and civil society. It examines the main policy frameworks and touches on organisational transformation, because it is impossible to deal with governance in isolation from these issues. Policy processes and the frameworks they give rise to—in particular—are critical for effective governance. This article deals with the defence, safety and security and intelligence fields. A comprehensive overview would need to include the governance of criminal justice and foreign policy. The article does not seek to make an overall evaluation of governance, but to identify achievements, shortfalls and challenges.     

South Africa's threat environment: a guide for the National Planning Commission

Abstract

The mandate of South Africa's recently appointed National Planning Commission includes addressing ‘defence and security matters’. This article seeks to outline the central elements of the threat environment facing South Africa in the foreseeable future. It is argued that South Africa faces no meaningful existential threat from conventional military forces but that its security forces will need to be prepared to address possible raids and attacks by conventional military forces both on home soil and on vital interests beyond the nation's borders. Other threats highlighted include the threats posed by potential insurgencies, by terrorism, and by crime, social unrest and banditry. Also addressed is the danger of so-called hybrid threats, in which two or more of the single threat types outlined here are combined. Finally, the article challenges the National Planning Commission to rethink South Africa's policy on peace operations in the light of the need to ensure the safety and security of the nation's citizenry.     

战场威胁约束下的纯方位探测单观测站轨迹优化

为保证战场环境下单站纯方位无源探测的精度和观测站的战场生存能力,提出一种战场威胁约束下的单观测站轨迹优化方法。对典型战场威胁进行分析,建立战场威胁和单观测站运动轨迹的数学模型。在此基础上综合考虑单观测站探测精度和所受威胁程度,分别构建精度打分函数和威胁打分函数,得到单观测站的路径选择函数,并对观测站不同轨迹进行评价。仿真结果表明,所提方法能够有效规避战场威胁并提高定位精度,保证战场环境下单站纯方位探测的准确性和可靠性。     

针对突发威胁的无人机多机协同路径规划的方法

在无人机多机协同路径规划中,采用V orono i图方法,引入协同变量和协同函数,产生关于已知威胁的路径,使各架无人机能够同时到达目标。在此基础上,利用集合点规划状态图,针对作战过程中的突发威胁实时进行路径规划,从而得到各架飞机的几何路径。仿真结果表明集合点规划状态图的使用对于无人机多机协同路径规划中的突发威胁问题的求解是有效的。     

网络恐怖主义对北京奥运安全的危害及其对策

近年来，网络恐怖主义对奥运安全的危害越来越引起国内和国际社会的广泛关注。当前，北京奥运会也面临着来自网络恐怖主义的威胁。为此，有必要通过转变观念、加强公安网监部门的作用、提高网络系统的安全性、加强国内立法和国际合作等方式来进一步增强北京奥运会防范网络恐怖主义威胁的能力。     

防空系统搜索目标仿真模型

从防空作战仿真与评估的需要出发,讨论了地面防空系统对空搜索、检测目标、截获目标、概略跟踪与初始状态估计等阶段的主要描述指标及其仿真模型,有关模型可直接应用于防空作战仿真及效能评估。