The “motivated bias” dilemma in warfare and intelligence

The goal of this article is to challenge the assumption of rationality in the behavior of decision-making units involved in security, defense, intelligence and warfare and to consider the influence of “motivated bias” in such instances. A review of motivational literature within international politics and a discussion of literature applying “motivated biases” to warfare and strategic surprise will offer an alternative view of the primacy of rationality in such decisions.     

Deterrence of nuclear terrorism in the context of South Asia

Stability among the great powers during the Cold War is widely theorized in terms of nuclear deterrence. Rationality of states and their preference for survival are the basis of nuclear deterrence. The rationality of non-state terrorist groups is different from that of nation-states. Even though they are also rational actors with their own hierarchy of preferences, survival may not be their ultimate goal. Deterrence of nuclear terrorism is therefore different from deterrence against states. South Asia is more vulnerable to nuclear terrorism than any other region of the world for many reasons. This article analyzes the possibility of nuclear terrorism and the ways of deterrence against it in the context of South Asia.     

非线性积分方程的周期解

以（Cg,｜.｜g）为相空间,研究具有无限时滞非线性积分方程周期解的存在性,利用Schauder-Tychonov不动点定理证明方程解的g一致有界性和g一致最终有界性蕴含周期解的存在性。     

中立型泛函微分方程解的有界性

对于有限时滞中立型泛函微分方程,利用Liapunov泛函的方法,研究了方程解的有界性,得到了便于应用的判据。     

高校去行政化中的“理性”与“非理性”思考

针对高校行政管理只关注效率提升而忽视人的主观性和创造性发挥的行政化现象,文章以马克思·韦伯的理性官僚制理论为基础,以"理性"和"非理性"的关系为着眼点,试图分析高校行政管理中理性和非理性的具体内容,以期为高校去行政化研究提供一种新的认识视角。     

卡尔曼滤波框架下优化增益异类噪声处理方法及其应用

针对基于卡尔曼滤波框架算法只能处理已知高斯噪声系统的局限性,设计能够同时处理含有异类噪声系统的改进算法。将不确定系统受到的干扰分成高斯噪声和未知有界噪声,对噪声特点进行分析,并将其加入状态方程和观测方程;在吸收集员滤波优点的基础上,对标准卡尔曼滤波进行改进,通过计算包含两种异类噪声系统状态的最小均方误差,得到该条件下滤波增益的调整值;将利用集员滤波得到的状态统计量以及两类噪声信息和调整后的滤波增益代入卡尔曼滤波体系,得到改进后的滤波算法。将提出的改进方法应用于不确定车辆导航系统中进行解算,仿真结果表明:改进滤波方法能够有效克服异类噪声的干扰,性能优于扩展卡尔曼滤波方法,对异类噪声具有较好的抵抗能力。     

正规模糊测度空间上的条件期望

讨论了次可加、具有有界变差的正规模糊测度空间上关于模糊测度、内测度及模糊积分的性质，在此基础上定义了此模糊测度空间上随机变量的条件数学期望，它是相对于经典测度空间的一个推广。     

Deterrence of nuclear terrorism in the context of South Asia

Stability among the great powers during the Cold War is widely theorized in terms of nuclear deterrence. Rationality of States and their preference for survival are the basis of nuclear deterrence. The rationality of non-state terrorist groups is different from that of nation-states. Even though they are also rational actors with their own hierarchy of preferences, survival may not be their ultimate goal. Deterrence of nuclear terrorism is therefore different from deterrence against states. South Asia is more vulnerable to nuclear terrorism than any other region of the world for many reasons. This article analyzes the possibility of nuclear terrorism and the ways of deterrence against it in the context of South Asia.     

浅析我国建立军事行政诉讼制度的合理性

近年来,军事行政法作为军事法体系的重要分支日益受到军事法学界的关注。应否建立军事行政诉讼制度这一问题更成为理论界和军法实践中讨论的焦点。试从当今法治趋势、军事行政权特征以及军事行政行为性质三个方面入手进行分析,探讨军事行政诉讼制度建立的必然性、必要性以及可行性,从而论证军事行政诉讼制度建立的合理性,以期有助于军事行政诉讼制度理论的完善和实践的开展。     

Selling to strategic and loss‐averse consumers: Stocking,procurement, and product design policies

Motivated by the presence of loss‐averse decision making behavior in practice, this article considers a supply chain consisting of a firm and strategic consumers who possess an S‐shaped loss‐averse utility function. In the model, consumers decide the purchase timing and the firm chooses the inventory level. We find that the loss‐averse consumers' strategic purchasing behavior is determined by their perceived gain and loss from strategic purchase delay, and the given rationing risk. Thus, the firm that is cognizant of this property tailors its inventory stocking policy based on the consumers' loss‐averse behavior such as their perceived values of gain and loss, and their sensitivity to them. We also demonstrate that the firm's equilibrium inventory stocking policy reflects both the economic logic of the traditional newsvendor inventory model, and the loss‐averse behavior of consumers. The equilibrium order quantity is significantly different from those derived from models that assume that the consumers are risk neutral and homogeneous in their valuations. We show that the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior tends to keep an unnecessarily high inventory level that leads to excessive leftovers. Our numerical experiments further reveal that in some extreme cases the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior generates almost 92% more leftovers than the firm that possesses consumers’ loss‐aversion information and takes it into account when making managerial decisions. To mitigate the consumer's forward‐looking behavior, we propose the adoption of the practice of agile supply chain management, which possesses the following attributes: (i) procuring inventory after observing real‐time demand information, (ii) enhanced design (which maintains the current production mix but improves the product performance to a higher level), and (iii) customized design (which maintains the current performance level but increases the variety of the current production line to meet consumers’ specific demands). We show that such a practice can induce the consumer to make early purchases by increasing their rationing risk, increasing the product value, or diversifying the product line. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 435–453, 2015