船用核动力装置可靠性与安全性分析的关系探讨

以船用核动力装置为对象,探讨其可靠性与安全性分析的发展及现状,对二者关系进行分析,从概念、方法和工程背景角度提出作者的观点.     

有温度反馈时中子动力学方程的新解法

当引入大阶跃反应性时 ,应用去耦合法求解中子动力学方程 ,导出了堆功率新的响应表达式 .与老的表达式相比 ,该表达式的应用范围更广 ,适用于初始功率为任意值     

弹道导弹防御中多目标拦截的策略

多目标拦截是弹道导弹防御的重大难题,也是目前美国导弹防御系统所遇到的最大的技术难点。在将多目标问题分为单弹头攻击和多弹头攻击2类问题的基础上,结合美国的相关研究计划,分别针对核爆炸防御、助推段防御、先进的目标识别器和多拦截器防御等多目标拦截策略进行了分析研究。     

Does aid cause conflict in Pakistan?

This study provides evidence from Pakistan on how the delegated task of achieving strategic objectives of the donor can lead to incompatibility of aid objectives which then generates perpetual and multidimensional domestic conflict in the recipient society. We use count data method to estimate the relationship between aid and conflict. At the aggregate level, social sector spending, regime change and youth bulge are positively and significantly related with conflict. However, aid per capita gives ambiguous results. It is significant with conflict count in the terrorism data-set and insignificant for data on armed conflict. Inclusion of youth bulge and unemployment rate confirms the marginalization hypothesis of conflict. Inflation rate and the tax variables are insignificant. This confirms that aid erodes fiscal capacity. At project-level data, conflict is strongly related with aid commitment and purpose. Discrepancy in aid allocation and commitment may accentuate conflict.     

Too much Western bias? The need for a more culturally adaptable approach to post-conflict security sector reform

The existing guidelines for security sector reform (SSR) tend to draw on theoretical work in the field of civil–military relations, which in turn has been derived from Western, liberal democratic models of governance. Although guidelines strongly advise that local culture and context need to be considered when drawing up objectives for post-conflict SSR programmes, this is not often reflected in practice. This article considers some of the reasons for this, citing both in-country challenges and donor-related issues, and suggests that one of the biggest problems is a lack of alternative, non-orthodox models of civil–military relations to draw upon. It is further suggested that elements of suitable alternative models may be found in states which possess political structures not entirely dissimilar to the Western, liberal democratic ideal, but which can offer different perspectives. Detailed research of these structures should produce a pool of sub-models which could then be employed to create bespoke, culturally appropriate objectives for use in post-conflict SSR programmes.     

加快推动国防科技和武器装备军民融合发展

国防科技和武器装备领域是军民融合发展的重点,也是衡量军民融合发展水平的重要标志。加快国防科技和武器装备军民融合发展,是保军强军的重要支撑,更关乎国家安全和发展一系列重大问题,必须从战略高度深刻领会其全局意义,以清醒头脑研判国防科技和武器装备军民融合发展形势,用务实举措推动国防科技和武器装备军民融合创新发展。     

Security sector reform in Africa: Donor approaches versus local needs

Many African states have security sector reform (SSR) programs. These are often internationally funded. But how do such programs account for previously existing security institutions and the security needs of local communities? This article examines SSR all over Africa to assess local ownership and path dependency from a New Institutionalist perspective. It finds that SSR, particularly in post-conflict countries, tends to be driven by ideas and perceptions of international donors promoting generalized blueprints. Often, such programs only account in a very limited way for path-dependent aspects of security institutions or the local context. Hence, the reforms often lack local participation and are thus not accepted by the local community eventually.     

从大国博弈视角解读与应对第三次抵消战略

在常规军力优势相对衰落、经费预算日益缩紧的背景下,美军为维持其军事霸权,提出了旨在实现兵力全球自由投送的第三次抵消战略(Third Offset Strategy)。通过梳理抵消战略的现实背景、历史沿革和战略目的,我们发现如果把第三次抵消战略简单视作美军的军事技术发展战略甚至军事战略,就会陷入片面而幼稚的认识误区。除了防范潜在的技术诱骗和技术突袭,更应该从大国博弈的战略视角出发,全面审视和应对第三次抵消战略对我国的挑战。美军实现国家利益的需求导向、自我变革的决心勇气和创新能力、科技兴军的先进理念和以军为主的军民融合成功经验值得借鉴。要以我为主参与制定未来战争的"游戏规则",做到"你打你的,我打我的";要深入研究美军作战体系和美国国家战略的薄弱环节,有针对性地"攻其所必救",从而化解重大安全挑战,争得新的战略机遇期。     

核试验地震核查的模糊逻辑推理综合识别方法

建立了一种增强性模糊推理方法,用来满足综合地震事件识别判据的需求。利用这种推理方法进行了地震事件模糊逻辑推理综合识别方法研究,给出了方法的框架。实例研究表明这种综合识别方法在核试验地震监测中有减少可疑事件数量的能力。