Threshold incentives over multiple periods and the sales hockey stick phenomenon

In this article, we study threshold‐based sales‐force incentives and their impact on a dealer's optimal effort. A phenomenon, observed in practice, is that the dealer exerts a large effort toward the end of the incentive period to boost sales and reach the threshold to make additional profits. In the literature, the resulting last‐period sales spike is sometimes called the hockey stick phenomenon (HSP). In this article, we show that the manufacturer's choice of the incentive parameters and the underlying demand uncertainty affect the dealer's optimal effort choice. This results in the sales HSP over multiple time periods even when there is a cost associated with waiting. We then show that, by linking the threshold to a correlated market signal, the HSP can be regulated. We also characterize the variance of the total sales across all the periods and demonstrate conditions under the sales variance can be reduced. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

方差分量的Bayes二次无偏估计及可容许估计的非负性

对于有P 个方差分量的线性模型,本文导出了方差分量线性函数的Bayes 不变二次无偏估计的显示表达式,证明了Bayes 不变二次无偏估计类形成了可容许的不变二次无偏估计的完全类。在可容许的不变二次无偏估计类中,讨论了非负参数函数的非负估计问题,给出了可容许的非负定估计存在的充要条件。     

刀具磨损监测的随机向量相关度量法

本文提出了一种运用功率累积和与n 维随机向量相关度量监测刀具磨损的新方法,即通过计算刀具三向振动加速度的相关度量系数,主轴扭矩或某项振动加速度的功率累积和综合监测刀具的磨损、破损以及刀具磨损的程度。该法在简单性、可靠性等方面比以往提出的方法有较大的进步,因而使得本方法具有很大的应用前景。文中对该法的理论基础进行了严格的证明,并给出了实验论证结果。     

基于集对分析的海上油料补给方法选择优化

针对各种复杂环境对海上油料补给方法选择的不确定性影响,在分析海上油料补给方法选择影响因素的基础上,确定了海上油料补给方法选择的属性要素,运用集对分析理论建立了海上油料补给方法选择的优化模型;采用变异系数法计算属性权重,通过构建海上油料补给方法选择的正、负理想方案,确定了各备选方案与理想方案之间的联系度。算例分析结果表明,将集对分析运用于海上油料补给方法的选择,能够有效降低多种复杂因素对油料补给方法选择的不确定性影响。     

The impact of operational decisions on the design of salesforce incentives

When facing high levels of overstock inventories, firms often push their salesforce to work harder than usual to attract more demand, and one way to achieve that is to offer attractive incentives. However, most research on the optimal design of salesforce incentives ignores this dependency and assumes that operational decisions of production/inventory management are separable from design of salesforce incentives. We investigate this dependency in the problem of joint salesforce incentive design and inventory/production control. We develop a dynamic Principal‐Agent model with both Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection in which the principal is strategic and risk‐neutral but the agent is myopic and risk‐averse. We find the optimal joint incentive design and inventory control strategy, and demonstrate the impact of operational decisions on the design of a compensation package. The optimal strategy is characterized by a menu of inventory‐dependent salesforce compensation contracts. We show that the optimal compensation package depends highly on the operational decisions; when inventory levels are high, (a) the firm offers a more attractive contract and (b) the contract is effective in inducing the salesforce to work harder than usual. In contrast, when inventory levels are low, the firm can offer a less attractive compensation package, but still expect the salesforce to work hard enough. In addition, we show that although the inventory/production management and the design of salesforce compensation package are highly correlated, information acquisition through contract design allows the firm to implement traditional inventory control policies: a market‐based state‐dependent policy (with a constant base‐stock level when the inventory is low) that makes use of the extracted market condition from the agent is optimal. This work appears to be the first article on operations that addresses the important interplay between inventory/production control and salesforce compensation decisions in a dynamic setting. Our findings shed light on the effective integration of these two significant aspects for the successful operation of a firm. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 320–340, 2014     

Screening and selection procedures with control variates and correlation induction techniques

We consider the problem of identifying the simulated system with the best expected performance measure when the number of alternatives is finite and small (often < 500). Recently, more research efforts in the simulation community have been directed to develop ranking and selection (R&S) procedures capable of exploiting variance reduction techniques (especially the control variates). In this article, we propose new R&S procedures that can jointly use control variates and correlation induction techniques (including antithetic variates and Latin hypercube sampling). Empirical results and a realistic illustration show that the proposed procedures outperform the conventional procedures using sample means or control variates alone. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

试论中小学校长专业发展素质构成要素

校长专业发展是指校长的专业素质结构不断更新、演进和丰富的过程。参照体现校长实现专业发展的五个方面内容,将态度和能力归纳为中小学校长专业化发展素质构成的重要维度。根据心理学理论的划分,将态度及能力的构成经过合理的整合,提出专业精神、专业知识和专业能力是中小学校长专业化发展素质构成的三大要素,并根据校长职业角色维度对三要素进行深入分析和细化,继而提出若干子要素,分析了各要素之间的关系,可作为中小学校长拟(初)从职人员参照依据。     

PCA和ICA的舰船尾流后向散射光信号检测

水体的后向散射光信号是舰船尾流后向散射光信号检测的常见干扰,由于其在频域十分接近且信号强度大于尾流信号,因此严重影响了有用信号的提取。针对这一问题,提出了一种基于主成分分析(PCA)和独立成分分析(ICA)相结合的尾流散射光信号检测方法。首先使用主成分分析对采集的散射光信号进行降维,去除冗余成分,之后使用基于负熵的F astICA算法对数据进行处理,分离了水体和舰船尾流的散射光信号,通过实验验证了该算法的有效性。     

原始变量守恒形式控制方程的时间准确性分析

基于压力、速度和温度的原始变量为自变量的守恒形式的控制方程可应用于定常流动问题，但是在求解非定常问题，例如某一典型激波管问题时，激波后温度出现过冲现象，即使通过细化网格、提高空间格式精度或者换用其他通量格式仍不能消除，这表明误差可能来自该方法本身。采用一维Euler方程对该方法进行数值分析。分析结果表明，数值误差来自时间项。通过构造相应的双时间步方程，虚拟时间项采用原始变量，而物理时间项采用守恒变量，并在两个相邻物理时间步内作为定常问题求解，可以收敛到相应的守恒形式，消除上述误差，得到准确的非定常数值解。     

Properties of a mean residual life function arising from renewal theory

The present article discusses the properties of the mean residual life function in a renewal process. We examine the relationship this function has with the failure rate function and the conventional mean, variance and coefficient of variation of residual life. We also discuss some monotonicity properties of the mean residual life function. A partial order based on the renewal mean residual function is introduced along with its interrelationship with some existing stochastic orders. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010