舰载跟踪雷达捕获概率分析

论述了舰载跟踪雷达捕获概率的分析与计算方法,给出了影响跟踪雷达照准概率的误差环节,并对搜索雷达稳定平台的隔离剩余误差作了较详尽的分析。     

Untruthful probabilistic demand forecasts in vendor‐managed revenue‐sharing contracts: Coordinating the chain

Vendor‐managed revenue‐sharing arrangements are common in the newspaper and other industries. Under such arrangements, the supplier decides on the level of inventory while the retailer effectively operates under consignment, sharing the sales revenue with his supplier. We consider the case where the supplier is unable to predict demand, and must base her decisions on the retailer‐supplied probabilistic forecast for demand. We show that the retailer's best choice of a distribution to report to his supplier will not be the true demand distribution, but instead will be a degenerate distribution that surprisingly induces the supplier to provide the system‐optimal inventory quantity. (To maintain credibility, the retailer's reports of daily sales must then be consistent with his supplied forecast.) This result is robust under nonlinear production costs and nonlinear revenue‐sharing. However, if the retailer does not know the supplier's production cost, the forecast “improves” and could even be truthful. That, however, causes the supplier's order quantity to be suboptimal for the overall system. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

静态初始条件下的歼击机中距攻防引导方法决策

在静态初始条件下,歼击机中距攻防引导方法的选择是一个定性与定量相结合的类别划分问题,因此,将粗糙集理论与概率神经网络相结合用于该问题的解决。首先,利用粗糙集理论实现专家知识约简、空战态势信息集压缩,得到最小决策信息集;其次,利用概率神经网络进行概率决策推理;最后,通过实例分析,结果表明决策推理正确,在不确定环境下仍然有效,提高了决策过程的自动化程度。     

基于统一理论框架的故障诊断模型及学习进化方法

本文以概率图理论为基础,系统研究了基于这一理论框架的故障诊断模型,对模型的构建方法以及在不同场景下的模型演化方案进行了探讨,使得在统一理论框架下可实现多模式系统故障诊断、耦合故障诊断、动态故障诊断、故障预测等复杂情形的诊断。为了弥补单独利用基于模型的方法和基于数据的方法的缺陷,研究了诊断模型的学习进化策略,实现了诊断效果的改进和优化。另外,对模型后续的能力扩展和可能的研究方向进行了展望,为后续理论研究提供了参考。     

基于VR与PNN相结合的机电液控制系统故障诊断方法

针对大型复杂机电液控制系统故障诊断中存在的数学模型获取困难、历史故障数据匮乏问题,提出了一种将虚拟样机与概率神经网络相结合的故障诊断混合方法。建立系统的虚拟样机,并对其可信性进行校核与验证。在此基础上进行大量随机性故障植入与仿真实验,获取故障仿真数据。经过特征提取与概率神经网络模式识别训练,形成用于诊断的知识库,从而实现故障诊断。以操舵系统作为研究案例,得到了较高的故障检测和隔离精度与较低的虚警及漏警率,验证了该方法的可行性,为大型复杂机电液控制系统故障诊断提供新的思路。     

基于PDA-UKF的杂波环境下单目标跟踪算法

提出将概率数据关联算法和不敏卡尔曼滤波相结合,用于杂波环境下的单目标跟踪。该算法同时解决了测量方程非线性情况下的滤波问题和杂波环境下的目标跟踪问题。给出了PDA-UKF算法的仿真过程,提供了一个基于距离、方位角、俯仰角的目标跟踪问题的仿真算例。理论分析与仿真结果均表明,该算法提高了滤波的稳定性和跟踪的精确性,具有较高的实用价值和广泛的应用前景。     

基于概率图模型的海上多目标跟踪

针对海上复杂环境中多运动目标跟踪问题,提出了一种融合概率图模型和粒子滤波的跟踪方法.该方法采用二元马尔可夫随机场构建多目标模型,利用势函数表示其联合概率分布,最后用变差分法和粒子滤波推理后验概率密度.通过二阶回归模型准确构建状态转移方程,以及Mean-Shift迭代加速粒子采样,提高了算法精确度和运行效率.实验表明:该方法能很好地实现海上复杂环境中的多目标实时跟踪.     

一种可实现TF/TA2的无人飞行器三维航迹规划方法

从规划空间的有效表达着手对无人飞行器三维航迹规划展开研究,基于地形和威胁提出的飞行器航迹规划方法将航迹规划分为学习阶段和查询阶段,环境信息和飞行器的大部分约束条件结合在路线图的构造过程中,航迹搜索在此路线图中进行并最终实现全部约束条件.试验结果显示,该方法可以实时获得实现TF/TA2的三维航迹.     

Probabilistic analysis of an asymptotically optimal solution for the completion time variance problem

Scheduling a set of n jobs on a single machine so as to minimize the completion time variance is a well‐known NP‐hard problem. In this paper, we propose a sequence, which can be constructed in O(n log n) time, as a solution for the problem. Our primary concern is to establish the asymptotical optimality of the sequence within the framework of probabilistic analysis. Our main result is that, when the processing times are randomly and independently drawn from the same uniform distribution, the sequence is asymptotically optimal in the sense that its relative error converges to zero in probability as n increases. Other theoretical results are also derived, including: (i) When the processing times follow a symmetric structure, the problem has 2^{⌊(n−1)/2⌋} optimal sequences, which include our proposed sequence and other heuristic sequences suggested in the literature; and (ii) when these 2^{⌊(n−1)/2⌋} sequences are used as approximate solutions for a general problem, our proposed sequence yields the best approximation (in an average sense) while another sequence, which is commonly believed to be a good approximation in the literature, is interestingly the worst. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 373–398, 1999