证据推理方法中不完备信息影响因素分析

不确定条件下的不完备信息分析是多属性决策中的主要内容之一,Yang提出的证据推理方法可以较好地处理这类信息。研究了证据推理方法中不完备信息的影响因素,包括规则中的不完备信息,规则的权重以及规则的一致性,并以此为基础分析了评估结果中不完备信息的取值范围,得出了初步结论:评估结果中不完备信息的信度必然小于作为输入的规则中不完备信息中的较大者,但不一定大于其中的较小者。进一步分析了规则一致性的逻辑意义和几何意义,指出规则的一致性实际描述了规则之间的冲突程度。     

The Long and Winding Road: The US Army Managerial Approach to Command and the Adoption of Mission Command (Auftragstaktik)

The purpose of the current paper is to examine the adoption and adaptation process of mission command (Auftragstaktik) in the US Army. This concept, developed by the Prussians, denotes a decentralized command approach wherein superiors dictate their intent and allow subordinates to formulate their operational plans independently and change it according to the emerging situation. The paper examines the US command approach prior to the adoption of mission command. It argues that it was heavily influenced by corporate management practices which inherently contradict mission command approach. It continues and investigates how the US Army endeavored to emulate the approach in its doctrine and in major operations.

While it has officially incorporated mission command into its doctrine, it has been less successful in utilizing it in operational situations. This state of affairs has to do with the cultural legacy of the managerial approach to command that still persist. Despite the partial success, the US Army has recently reaffirmed its commitment to this approach.     

A comprehensive review on material selection for polymer matrix composites subjected to impact load

Polymer matrix composites (PMC) are extensively been used in many engineering applications. Various natural fibers have emerged as potential replacements to synthetic fibers as reinforcing materials composites owing to their fairly better mechanical properties, low cost, environment friendliness and biodegradability. Selection of appropriate constituents of composites for a particular application is a tedious task for a designer/engineer. Impact loading has emerged as the serious threat for the composites used in structural or secondary structural application and demands the usage of appropriate fiber and matrix combination to enhance the energy absorption and mitigate the failure. The objective of the present review is to explore the composite with various fiber and matrix combination used for impact applications, identify the gap in the literature and suggest the potential naturally available fiber and matrix combination of composites for future work in the field of impact loading. The novelty of the present study lies in exploring the combination of naturally available fiber and matrix combination which can help in better energy absorption and mitigate the failure when subjected to impact loading. In addition, the application of multi attributes decision making (MADM) tools is demonstrated for selection of fiber and matrix materials which can serve as a benchmark study for the researchers in future.     

The Pitfalls of Cross-National Comparison in Conflict Research

Professor Joseph Soeters shows admirable ambition in comparing national styles of conflict resolution and is extremely eager to draw historical lessons from such comparative exercises. However, he gets entangled in national mythmaking as he underestimates the complexity of comparative history of this kind. Particularly the establishment of true causal links between national (strategic) cultures and actual tactical behaviour on the ground is far more difficult than he suggests in his recent book chapter and his reply to my article in this journal.     

Strategic “defensivism” and post-reset blues: US–Russian nuclear arms reductions,missile defenses and minimum deterrence

US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy may be moving, by design and by inadvertence, toward a posture of strategic “defensivism”. Strategic “defensivism” emphasizes the overlapping and reinforcing impact of: (1) reductions in US, Russian and possibly other strategic nuclear forces, possibly down to the level of “minimum deterrence,” (2) deployment of improved strategic and/or theater antimissile defenses for the US, NATO allies and other partners; and (3) additional reliance on conventional military forces for some missions hitherto preferentially assigned to nuclear weapons. This article deals with the first two of these aspects only: the interaction between missile defenses and offensive force reductions in US–Russian strategy and policy. The findings are that stable deterrence as between the USA and Russia is possible at lower than New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty levels, but reductions below 1000 deployed long-range weapons for each state, toward a true minimum deterrent posture, will require multilateral as opposed to bilateral coordination of arms limitations. Missile defenses might provide some denial capability against light attacks by states with small arsenals, but they still fall short of meaningful damage limitation as between powers capable of massive nuclear strikes.