HUMAN STABILITY AND CONFLICT IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

States in the Horn of Africa have limited control of their economic situation and very little autonomy in security matters. Globalisation, the growing militarisation of conflicts and an ideological vacuum are some of the reasons for this. The idea that a central power (the state) can, or should, bring order to the periphery, should be questioned. When the rule of law is maintained at the expense of diversity, catastrophic conflict may arise. Regional organisations have too few resources to implement conflict prevention, management or resolution strategies. Refugees and displaced populations are the result. Authoritarian statism, fostered by international capitalist interests, has not prevented the tragic conflicts in the Horn. This Western model has not brought democratic rule, equality or human rights and it should be resisted in future peace efforts. A regional, co-operative union with a strong civil society drawing on pre-colonial wisdom offers the Horn a better path to prosperity and stability.     

War,vagueness and hybrid war

It has frequently been observed in the literature on hybrid wars that there is a grey zone between peace and war, and that hybrid wars are conflicts which are not clear cases of war. In this paper, I attempt to illuminate this grey zone and the concept and nature of war from the philosophical discussions of vagueness and institutional facts. Vague terms are characterized by the fact that there is no non-arbitrary boundary between entities which lie in their extension, and entities which do not lie in their extension. I apply a theory of vagueness to notions such as “war” and “peace” and go on to suggest that the exact boundary for what counts as a war or not is arbitrary. However, the context in which the conflict occurs determines a range of possible locations for this boundary. The most important contextual parameter is in this respect how the parties to the conflict themselves conceptualize the conflict. I suggest that this can in various ways help us understand grey-zone conflicts.     

South Africa and Peace Support Operations: Limitations,Options and Challenges

Abstract

Malawi's political transition from single-party rule to multiparty democracy in June 1994 raised expectations for sustainable peace in the country by, among others, passing a new legal framework that provided for conflict resolution mechanisms and good governance. However, political conflicts that have posed challenges to the foundations of peace and political stability have been a characteristic of the multiparty dispensation, leading to interventions by indigenous institutions whose aim is to build peace. This paper, which is based on field research, analyses the major political conflicts that have occurred on Malawi's political scene since the 1990s. Using the Public Affairs Committee as a case study, the paper illustrates the challenges facing the indigenous conflict resolution mechanisms. It also shows that despite the political transition, the socio-political environment still exhibits political behaviour and norms formed during the 30 years of single-party rule. There is a need for capacity-building and deliberate policy to enhance the indigenous-based mechanisms in order to promote sustainable peace in the country.     

Conditions for Successful Multiparty Mediation in Separatist Armed Conflicts: A Fuzzy-Set Analysis

Contemporary international mediation is often multiparty and involves a number of states and multilateral organisations. What are the conditions that account for successful multiparty mediation in conflict resolution? To address this question, I use qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and focus on individual dimensions of mediation, namely internal cohesion of the mediating coalition, the use of reward and coercive power, and the presence of a ‘mutually hurting stalemate’ (MHS). I posit that the presence of a cohesive mediating coalition is a necessary condition for conflict resolution, whereas the provision of security guarantees, the imposition of sanctions and the presence of an MHS play a causal role in conflict resolution only in conjunction with other conditions. I test these conditions using a fuzzy-set approach and data from 20 mediated agreements over separatist conflicts in the post-cold war era. Empirical findings provide support for some of these propositions and challenge relevant theories of international mediation. More specifically, this research shows that a high convergence of interests among mediators is the only necessary – albeit not sufficient condition – for conflict resolution. Second, the analysis highlights the presence of two main sufficient paths for mediation success.     

Hydropolitics of the Nile: The case of Ethiopia and Egypt

This article analyses the political relationship between Ethiopia and Egypt. It aims to provide an analytical framework to unpack this complex relationship and assess the impacts that the Nile River has on the nature of this relationship. It further identifies geopolitical factors determining the impacts of the Nile River on frameworks of actions and political opportunity structures in which political actors operate. Accordingly, the different combinations of these determinants lead to the formation of political actors and ensuing actions that can fuel conflict, sustain the status quo or build peace. The article seeks to provide tentative answers to the following questions: what can be done or what mechanisms might be used to reduce the risk of conflict? What parties should participate and what will be their roles? And how can modern technology and science contribute to a possible solution?     

Pursuing sustainable peace through post-conflict peacebuilding: The case of Sierra Leone

Many of the world's poorest states have experienced violent conflict in the past decades and it is today widely accepted that armed conflicts require sustained efforts that address not only the military, but also the political, humanitarian, economic and social dimensions of conflicts. For some years there has been a growing international concern with and emphasis on peacebuilding programming in the area of conflict resolution and peacekeeping. In Sierra Leone, a country that was engulfed in a brutal civil war for more than ten years, peace was hard won—a peace that would not have been possible without the presence and active post-conflict assistance of the United Nations (UN). However, Sierra Leone remains in a precarious state, being one of the poorest countries in the world, and needs the commitment of the international community in ongoing post-conflict peacebuilding to sustain its delicate peace. This article examines the challenges, extent and achievements of peacebuilding programming in Sierra Leone, and assesses the prospects for sustainable peace in this once war-torn West African state.     

Conflict circuit breakers in the Great Lakes Region of Africa

Conflict resolution in the African Great Lakes Region has been linked to the protocols and projects agreed upon at the Second International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR). The ICGLR created a continental-wide framework of conflict circuit breakers focused on resolving the structural and surface situational causes of the 1996 to 2003 armed conflicts that drew in at least six nations and destabilised the entire region. The implementation of these protocols and projects will serve as a test for the African Great Lakes Region to move away from conflict and into a cooperation and development phase; however, the effort to bring peace, stability and development will face obstacles not only in the security sector, but also in developing infrastructure, civil society, and good governance. In summary, this article contends that peace in the Great Lakes Region will depend equally on two factors: internal governance and building civil society institutions, and focused regional interlocking circuit-breaking institutions.     

Mediation,Peacekeeping And Civil War Peace Agreements

The post-civil war agreement phase is vulnerable to credible commitment problems, a lack of government capacity to implement, and/or mutual vulnerability to retribution from violating the agreement. This study’s main contribution is to demonstrate the combined utility of mediation and UN peacekeeping. Mediation builds trust and confidence and works with the parties to design an efficacious agreement conducive to, among other features, tamping down post-agreement violence. Peacekeeping stems violence and facilitates the implementation of the agreement. Agreements that are mediated and followed by UN peacekeeping are expected to be more robust in terms of staving off violence. We report the effects of the mediation–peacekeeping interaction using a method correcting for a common misinterpretation of interaction terms. We test logit and hazard models using a sample of full and partial civil war peace agreements signed between 1975 and 2011. Controlling for agreement design, democracy, and income per capita, the results indicate mediation and its interaction with peacekeeping reduce the probability of renewed/continuing violence and have a positive impact on agreement duration. We also report brief case study evidence from the 1990s peace process in Guatemala.     

THE PEACE DIVIDEND EFFECT OF TURKISH CONVERGENCE TO THE EU: A MULTI‐REGION DYNAMIC CGE MODEL ANALYSIS FOR GREECE AND TURKEY

This paper examines the peace dividend effect of Turkish convergence to EU membership. By employing a multi‐region dynamic CGE model, we examine the prospect for conflict resolution if Turkey becomes an EU member. The model allows us to analyse several scenarios that imply varying amounts of reduction of the military expenditure/GDP ratios. On the one hand, this change will cause a decrease in sectoral demand for military expenditures, while on the other hand, reallocation of the reduced expenditure on (i) education, (ii) tax decrease, and (iii) infrastructure, should have a huge growth impact. Our dynamic CGE simulation experiments emphasize the economic gain for all parties involved.     

Mediation and the Dynamics of Civilian Victimisation in Intrastate Conflicts in Africa

ABSTRACT

Reports about mass atrocities are often accompanied by demands for action against the perpetrators. Mediation allows third parties to demonstrate their active involvement against civilian victimisation. However, whether mediators are successful in contributing to lower levels of one-sided violence is far from clear. Conflict actors might continue or even intensify violence to enhance their bargaining position during peace talks. Based on our tests with monthly data for intrastate conflicts in Africa we find no support for the expectation that one-sided violence declines in the aftermath of mediation onset. Instead, we observe rather an increase in civilian victimisation.     

‘Fighting for peace’

In Africa, most of the present conflicts are civil, intra-state wars where belligerent groups use guerrilla tactics to achieve various political, economic or ideological objectives. The atrocities and the effect of these on-going wars on innocent civilians, human suffering, poverty and development are beyond comprehension. Not surprisingly, the majority of current peace operations are in Africa, with more than 70 countries contributing forces to these conflict zones. On the continent, South Africa has come to assume a leading role in peace operations and is now a major troop-contributing country to UN and AU missions. In the past 11 years, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) has taken part in no fewer than 14 peace missions. This article provides a brief background of the conflicts in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan, the different United Nations (UN) and African Union (AU) mandates under which peacekeepers had to operate as well as their objectives, and the extent of South Africa's involvement in the various missions. In the last section, the major challenges, that these operations have posed are highlighted.     

South Africa's arsenal of terrorism legislation

After only ten years in existence, the African Union (AU) has already made its mark on the landscape of peace and security in Africa. This paper seeks to explore the relationship between the AU's leading collaborative interstate security policy, the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), and sustainable peace in the Horn of Africa. It examines four countries – Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Kenya – and how engaging with the APSA through early warning systems can contribute to developing the elements necessary for sustainable peace, namely regional stability, conflict management, and good governance.     

The viability of civil war peace agreements

Civil war peace agreements are prone to collapse. While some research suggests that multiple layers of power-sharing provisions lead to more viable agreements, others have suggested that negotiated settlements are not only more likely to return to violence, but that those cases will be more deadly as a result. We suggest here that previous research has failed to address the various ways that peace agreements emerge and that this context is crucial in explaining peace agreement viability. In some situations, rebels are likely to earn those concessions through battlefield success. Governments may feel compelled to address underlying grievances in order to stop the bloodshed and ultimately maintain some political clout in the postwar regime. In other cases, however, governments may feel pressure to engage in discussions and to provide concessions by outside actors, whether in the form of diplomatic intervention, economic, or foreign military intervention. Hypotheses are tested on all civil war peace agreements identified by the UCDP Peace Agreement Data-set for 1975–2011. Findings from logit and hazard models suggest that agreements brought about in the aftermath of military intervention on behalf of rebels are more likely to endure while those earned on the battlefield (i.e., stronger rebels) do not. In addition, mediation enhances peace agreement viability, while interventions on behalf of governments tend to undermine it.     

Evolutionary Psychology and Global Security

Peace and global security are human endeavors, and thus their attainment depends as much on psychology as it does on governance and technology. In this paper I outline 3 ways our evolved psychology is an obstacle to achieving international cooperation and peace. First, humans show strong evidence of adaptations for cooperation within groups, but equally clear evidence that this cooperative nature does not extend to members of other groups. Second, humans evolved to have a relative sense of fairness, and thus will often reject even mutually beneficial agreements if they benefit others more than themselves. Third, humans evolved to be self-deceptive and hypocritical, believing in the unique righteousness and inevitable victory of their own cause, which tends to exacerbate conflict. Nevertheless, these obstacles are not insurmountable and an awareness of them can help in the development of strategies to increase the chances of lasting peace and security.     

THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

The armed conflict in the DRC has been characterised by appalling, widespread and systematic human rights violations. It varies from civil war to a war between national armies. Much of the conflict falls between these two categories due to the involvement of foreign troops in civil strife, as well as foreign rebel groups fighting their home government's troops but on Congolese soil. The most pressing need is to cease hostilities and address the humanitarian situation in the country. Questions of justice and accountability, and issues relating to the rule of law will have to be addressed soon in order to achieve a durable peace in the country and in the region. Since there are links between different conflicts in the region, a broader solution should preferably be found. However, this would further complicate an already difficult proposition. Efforts limited to the DRC would be more feasible and could lead to similar measures in other conflict ridden countries in the region. This essay therefore discusses the available processes for justice.     

INTRA‐GROUP COMPETITION AND INTER‐GROUP CONFLICT: AN APPLICATION TO NORTHERN IRELAND

This paper reviews four economic theories of leadership selection in conflict settings. The ‘credibility rationale’, argues that hawks may actually be necessary to initiate peace agreements. The ‘bargaining rationale’ predicts that while doves are more likely to secure peace, post‐conflict hawks may be rationally selected. The ‘social psychological rationale’ captures the idea of a competition over which group can form the strongest identity. Dove selection can be predicted during conflict, but hawk selection post‐conflict. Finally, the ‘expressive rationale’ predicts that regardless of the underlying nature of the game the large group nature of decision‐making in rendering individual decision makers non‐decisive in determining the outcome of elections may cause them to make choices based primarily on emotions. Finally, the paper analyses the extent to which the theories can throw light on Northern Ireland electoral history over the last 25 years.     

DEFENCE SECTOR TRANSFORMATION

Sub-Saharan Africa is a region facing many problems and challenges. Many of the countries in the region are experiencing internal conflicts and others are involved in processes of peace negotiations and post-conflict peace building. All these countries face the challenge of defence sector transformation in order to align their post-conflict defence departments and military forces with the demands of democratic societies. This is more than a demand for a reduction in defence spending and requires a fundamental change in defence policies, management and practises. There are, however, lessons to be learnt from other similar experiences in the region. This article examines some of those lessons and presents a generic model for defence sector transformation in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Does Spoiling Work? Assessing the Impact of Spoilers on Civil War Peace Agreements

Scholars and policymakers argue that violent actors – termed ‘spoilers’ – pose a significant threat to civil war peace agreements. Yet existing research, which is overly reliant on single-case studies, has not effectively determined how prevalent spoiling is, or thoroughly examined what its ultimate effects are on peace agreements. This article draws on a newly constructed cross-national dataset of spoiling following 241 civil war peace agreements in the post-Cold War era to analyze spoiling. It finds that spoiling intended to terminate an agreement is not as common as typically assumed, but still plagues a sizeable number of peace agreements. Moreover, most actors who resort to this strategy typically fail in their goals and the agreement is not at risk, despite the high publicity and attention given to these threats. Yet particular types of actors, most notably paramilitaries and state security forces excluded from the agreement, can pose a significant threat to peace.     

Business and peace in the Niger Delta: what we know and what we need to know

The global restructuring of state–society relationships driven by neoliberal logic has not only allowed for the taming of the ‘state’, which has paradoxically accentuated its inadequacies, but has also facilitated, for better or for worse, the emergence of business – especially transnational corporations – as a major political force in global governance. Consequently, while the issues of peace and conflict have traditionally been the concern of governments, businesses are now increasingly being expected to make peace and conflict their concern. However, despite claims and counterclaims that businesses can be moneymakers and peacemakers, analyses of the relationship between business and peace remain largely embryonic. This paper seeks to contribute to this emerging business and peace debate by drawing on insights from the Niger Delta conflict to ascertain what we know and what we need to know if businesses are to become peacemakers in conflict zones in Africa.     

When the Going Gets Tough… Monitoring Missions and a Changing Conflict Environment in Sri Lanka, 2002–2008

This article analyzes how the conflict environment in which a civilian monitoring mission is deployed influences the monitors' assessment of the operation. It draws on unique empirical material from the experience of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), deployed to oversee a ceasefire agreement in Sri Lanka 2002–2008. With material from a survey and in-depth interviews, experiences of the monitors are analyzed and changes over time are traced in relation to the monitors' assessment of the mandate and organizational set-up of the mission. The study points to the difficulty of monitoring missions to address escalation during an ongoing peace process. Its function is dependent on the goodwill of the parties. In essence, monitoring missions have the potential to strengthen peace when there is momentum in favor of progress, but when relations between the parties turn sour and the conflict escalates a civilian monitoring mission basically loses its potential. During the final stages of the war, which saw a very large number of civilian casualties, the war-torn areas were closed to international observers. Moreover, international pressure for a short-term ceasefire to alleviate the humanitarian situation was dismissed by the Sri Lankan government, which also saw the backing of several important actors, not the least China.