含裂纹钢板复合材料修补疲劳寿命数值分析

用ANSYS有限元软件对复合材料修复含边裂纹、中心裂纹和切口的钢板的疲劳寿命进行了数值分析.研究了边裂纹、中心裂纹长度对钢板疲劳寿命的影响,分析了碳纤维增强复合材料对3种损伤钢板疲劳寿命的修复效果.计算结果显示,修补后结构件的疲劳寿命可延长3～50倍.     

一种计算自行火炮构件全寿命里程的新方法

传统的计算车辆构件全寿命里程的方法首先要编制反映全寿命里程的载荷谱.基于Miner线性损伤累积理论,提出一种计算自行火炮构件全寿命里程的新方法.该方法原理明了,计算简便,避开了繁琐的编谱过程,充分利用了单一工况寿命里程结果,大大提高了计算构件全寿命里程的效率.这种方法对其他车辆构件的全寿命里程计算也有借鉴意义.     

鱼雷寿命周期费用参数的灰色敏感性分析

鱼雷寿命周期费用受多种因素的影响,各因素对寿命周期费用的作用不同,有的作用大,有的作用小.在对鱼雷寿命周期费用建立模型时,需要分析哪些因素是影响寿命周期费用的主要因素,哪些因素是影响寿命周期费用的次要因素,即对寿命周期费用参数进行敏感性分析.利用灰色系统理论的灰色关联度对鱼雷寿命周期费用参数进行敏感性分析,可对这些参数按重要性进行分类, 有利于建立模型时对参量的选择.     

GM(1,1)模型预测火炮研制费用的应用

随着科学技术的发展,寿命周期费用日益受到重视,尤其是寿命周期费用中研制阶段的费用对寿命周期费用起到决定作用.利用GM(1,1)灰色理论对自行火炮寿命周期费用中的研制费用进行分析,建立了基于GM(1,1)灰色理论的自行火炮研制费用分析通用时间序列模型,并以某自行火炮研制费用为实例,利用SPSS统计软件对文中建立的灰色预测模型进行了分析计算.其计算和检测的结果表明模型可靠、精度较高,为自行火炮研制费用分析提供新的理论分析方法.     

坦克推进系统分段寿命试验统计分析

本文用生存分析方法,对坦克分段寿命试验进行了统计分析,并从理论上说明了坦克分段寿命试验的合理性.     

自行火炮武器系统的寿命周期费用分析

随着技术的发展,寿命周期的研究正日益受到关注.评述了国内外寿命周期费用方面的研究现状,介绍了火炮寿命周期费用研究方法的内容及用途,探讨了费用估算的一般方法,在火炮寿命周期费用分解原则的基础上给出了火炮寿命周期费用分解结构,讨论了寿命周期费用研究方法急需解决的主要问题.     

存在工作历程产品的加速寿命试验统计分析

加速寿命试验(ALT)可在较短时间内获得产品的寿命及可靠性信息.利用ALT对产品的剩余寿命进行评估时,常常将已工作过的产品进行抽样并投入试验,在这一类样本的ALT数据统计分析时如何处理初始工作时间,成为ALT应用中的一个重要问题.工程实际中评估此类样本的剩余寿命时常常忽略初始工作时间,将其视为"用后如新"或"无记忆性"产品.但此假设必须以产品寿命服从指数分布为前提,而大部分机电产品的寿命服从Weibull分布,因而该方法在应用时必然会产生较大误差.针对这一问题提出了一种新的基于时间折算的ALT数据统计分析方法,并利用Monte Carlo仿真对其估计特性进行对比研究,结果表明此方法能有效评估存在初始工作历程产品的剩余寿命,估计精度优于原方法.     

基于仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计

针对竞争失效产品加速寿命试验存在试验时间长、费用高、效率低的问题,提出了一种基于Monte-Carlo仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计方法.采用Monte-Carlo对步降加速寿命试验进行仿真模拟,以正常使用应力下的p阶分位寿命渐进方差估计最小为目标,以各试验应力水平及对应应力下的试验截尾数作为设计变量,采用MIE理论进行统计分析,建立了基于仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计模型.最后,通过实例分析表明:该方法具有可行性、有效性.     

逐步Ⅰ型混合截尾试验下Burr部件的可靠性分析

在逐步Ⅰ型混合截尾试验下,研究了Burr部件寿命参数及可靠性指标的极大似然估计和Bayes估计.利用简单迭代方法,给出了寿命参数和可靠性指标的极大似然估计的数值解.然后利用Lindely Bayes近似算法得到了平方损失下寿命参数以及可靠性指标的Bayes估计.最后,运用Monte-Carlo方法对各估计结果作了模拟比较,结果表明Bayes估计较极大似然估计的误差小.     

武器系统模糊寿命周期费用模型

武器系统的寿命周期费用建模较多采用参数法,而参数法中最常用的是最小二乘回归.考虑费用统计数据的模糊性,提出用模糊最小二乘回归来建立武器系统模糊寿命周期费用模型,并结合实例对武器系统寿命周期费用进行了分析.结果表明,这种方法能达到令人满意的拟合精度,具有实用价值.     

R^3,1中具有平行平均曲率向量的类时曲面

用可积系统方法给出了4维Minkowski空间R^3,1中具有平行平均曲率向量的正则类时曲面的表示。与类空曲面不同,这些类时曲面由Klein-Gordon方程ωxy＋｜H｜sinhω=0,ωxy-｜H｜coshω=0,ωxy＋1/2｜H｜eω/2=0所决定,表明这类曲面在R3,1中是丰富的。     

Life cycle costs for decision support ‐ a study of the various life cycle costs used at different levels of defence policy and management∗

Debates on many aspects of defence economics ‐ on the scale of defence expenditure, on the allocation of that expenditure to various military capabilities, and on the selection of equipment offering the best value for money ‐ are bedevilled by misunderstandings and misconceptions about the costs of defence equipment. This paper seeks to improve understanding of defence equipment costs by defining a hierarchy of defence equipment within which the direct and indirect life cycle costs of defence equipment may be allocated at different levels. Having reviewed the direct and indirect components of the life cycle cost, this paper then shows how different costing studies for different purposes require different approaches to life cycle costing, and that there is no unique life cycle cost which can be assigned to one particular item of defence equipment. There is instead a range oflife cycle costs, each of which is appropriate for a particular study, and it is important that a quoted cost of an item of defence equipment should be used only in the pertinent circumstances. The paper is written from a UK perspective and accordingly uses British nomenclature, but its principles should be relevant to defence cost studies in other nations.     

Properties of some stochastic orders: A unified study

The notions of the likelihood ratio order of degree s (s ≥ 0) are introduced for both continuous and discrete integer‐valued random variables. The new orders for s = 0, 1, and 2 correspond to the likelihood ratio, hazard rate, and mean residual life orders. We obtain some basic properties of the new orders and their up shifted stochastic orders, and derive some closure properties of them. Such a study is meaningful because it throws an important light on the understanding of the properties of the likelihood ratio, hazard rate, and mean residual life orders. On the other hand, the properties of the new orders have potential applications. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

作战活动分析方法与建模

作战功能是作战节点具备的履行作战活动的能力,作战任务是作战节点履行作战活动的原因和目的.首先,从研究作战任务、作战功能、作战活动等基本概念着手,分析作战任务、作战功能和作战活动三者之间的关系.然后,建立模型,通过数学关系式a=A(f,t)说明作战活动是作战功能、作战任务的二维函数,作战节点履行什么作战活动由作战功能和需要完成的作战任务共同决定;在此基础上,构建作战功能、作战任务、作战活动三者的关系矩阵,用关系矩阵的形式分析、描述作战节点履行的作战活动;最后,结合IDEF0建模方法,给出分析、确定作战活动的基本步骤.     

The hnbue and hnwue classes of life distributions

Different properties of the HNBUE (HNWUE) class of life distributions (i.e.), for which \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$\int_t^\infty {\,\,\,\mathop F\limits^-(x)\,dx\, \le \,(\ge)\,\mu }\]$\end{document} exp(?t/μ) for t ≥ 0, where μ = \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$\int_t^\infty {\,\,\,\mathop F\limits^-(x)\,dx}$\end{document} are presented. For instance we characterize the HNBUE (HNWUE) property by using the Laplace transform and present some bounds on the survival function of a HNBUE (HNWUE) life distribution. We also examine whether the HNBUE (HNWUE) property is preserved under the reliability operations (i) formation of coherent structure, (ii) convolution and (iii) mixture. The class of distributions with the discrete HNBUE (discrete HNWUE) property (i.e.), for which \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$\sum\limits_{j=k}^\infty {\mathop{\mathop P\limits^-_{j\,\,\,}\, \le(\ge)\,\mu(1 - 1/\mu)^{^k }}\limits^{}} $\end{document} for k = 0, 1, 2, ?, where μ =\documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$\sum\limits_{j=0}^\infty {\mathop {\mathop P\limits^- _{j\,\,\,\,\,}and\mathop P\limits^ - _{j\,\,\,\,\,}=}\limits^{}}\,\,\sum\limits_{k=j+1}^\infty {P_k)}$\end{document} is also studied.     

谈人口老龄化给消防工作带来的问题及对策

对老年人消防安全形势进行分析,结合两起老年人死亡的典型火灾案例,说明了老年人日常生活中火灾隐患的严峻形势,同时通过对我国社会老龄化趋势分析,阐明了必须大力加强老年人消防安全工作,并提出了加强老年人消防安全工作的建议。     

Storage life prediction under pre-strained thermally-accelerated aging of HTPB coating using the change of crosslinking density

In order to predict the storage life of a certain type of HTPB (hydroyl-terminated polybutadiene) coating at 25 C and analyze the influence of pre-strain on the storage life, the accelerated aging tests of HTPB coating at 40 C, 50 C, 60 C, 70 C with the pre-strain of 0%, 3%, 6%, 9%, respectively were carried out. The variation regularity of the change of crosslinking density was analyzed and the aging model of HTPB coating under pre-strained thermally-accelerated aging was proposed. The storage life of HTPB coating at 25 C was estimated by using the Berthelot equation as the end point of the aging life with a 30% decrease in maximum elongation. The results showed that the change of crosslinking density of HTPB coating increased with the increase of aging temperature and aging time, and decreased with the in-crease of pre-strain. Under 0% pre-strain, the relationship between the change of crosslinking density of HTPB coating and the aging time can be described by the logarithmic model with the confidence probability greater than 99%.The stress relaxation phenomenon existed under 3%, 6% and 9% pre-strained aging. The aging model considering chemical aging and pre-strain was established with the confidence probability greater than 90%. The storage life of HTPB coating was 15.2935 years at 25 C under 0% pre-strain, which was reduced by 13.9007%, 75.6949% and 89.7859% under 3%, 6% and 9% pre-strain, respectively. The existence of pre-strain has a serious impact on the storage life of HTPB coating, therefore, the pre-strain should be avoided as much as possible during the actual storage.     

An approach for predicting digital material consumption in electronic warfare

Electronic warfare is a modern combat mode, in which predicting digital material consumption is a key for material requirements planning (MRP). In this paper, we introduce an insensitive loss function (ε) and propose a ε-SVR-based prediction approach. First, we quantify values of influencing factors of digital equipments in electronic warfare and a small-sample data on real consumption to form a real combat data set, and preprocess it to construct the sample space. Subsequently, we establish the ε-SVR-based prediction model based on “wartime influencing factors - material consumption” and perform model training. In case study, we give 8 historical battle events with battle damage data and predict 3 representative kinds of digital materials by using the proposed approach. The results illustrate its higher accuracy and more convenience compared with other current approaches. Taking data acquisition controller prediction as an example, our model has better prediction performance (RMSE = 0.575 7, MAPE (%) = 12.037 6 and R² = 0.996 0) compared with BP neural network model (RMSE = 1.272 9, MAPE (%) = 23.577 5 and R² = 0.980 3) and GM (1, 1) model (RMSE = 2.095 0, MAPE (%) = 24.188 0 and R² = 0.946 6). The fact shows that the approach can be used to support decision-making for MRP in electronic warfare.     

Opening behavior of PELE perforation on reinforced concrete target

Impact velocity (v0), target strength (fc) and target thickness (hc) are important factors affecting opening damage ((D)) of PELE penetration into RC target. In this paper, based on the three influence factors of v0, fc and hc, experimental and numerical simulation studies on PELE penetration into RC target were carried out. The study results show that: (1) Since interaction force (or penetration resistance) between pro-jectile and target is positively correlated with v0 and fc, with the increase of v0 and fc, deformation mode of jacket is changed from small bending deformation to large bending deformation and then to curling deformation. Therefore, the variation of jacket deformation mode causes opening diameter of RC target to increase first and then to decrease. It is found that the two factors approximately satisfy a quadratic function relationship, respectively. (2) For PELE projectile penetrating RC targets with thickness of 80—400 mm, the opening diameter of six sets of RC targets grows from 240 to 500 mm, and hc with (D) approximately satisfy a linear relationship. (3) Based on the above study results, the relationship be-tween two dimensionless parameters (I= (mv20/d31fc) and H= hc/l ) and dimensionless opening diameter ((D)/d1) was determined. Combined with the results of previous research, a dimensionless opening diameter model (D)/d1=f1(Q,G,I)f2(H) was established. By tests verified, the test results are all within ±10％error of the theoretical model, which verifies the accuracy of the model.     

一种胆碱酯酶贮存寿命的预测方法

用差热分析 (DTA)和等温加速老化法 ,测定了用生物化学方法检测有机磷、氨基甲酸酯类农药或毒剂的试剂———胆碱酯酶的贮存寿命。获得了所测定的该种胆碱酯酶的贮存寿命与贮存温度之间的关系式。这种测定方法简便快捷、实用可靠。