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Using a data set of historical battles from 1600 to 1973, this paper analyzes the empirical determinants of tactical success in modern war. Based on a reduced form approach we consider key elements of military theory as production factors for combat success as an output of a military production function. The paper focuses on the relationship of material and non-material factors to battlefield success, and especially on the role of superior force strengths. Contrary to the emphasis on technology which can be found in the recent literature, our estimation results indicate that numerical superiority has retained its crucial role for battlefield performance throughout history. In general, human elements of warfare, like leadership, morale and surprise, have continued to be important determinants of battle outcome despite technological progress in weapons. 相似文献
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基于兰彻斯特方程的大区域防空作战效能评估模型 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对大区域防空参战兵力多,体系结构、交战过程复杂的特点,引入作战效能、战斗编组、火力毁伤及任务分配等矩阵,建立了基于兰彻斯特方程的大区域防空作战效能评估模型,包括战斗力指数、战斗编组、毁伤指数、任务分配、指挥控制和作战实力损耗等部分。每个模型的建立均通过设定相应矩阵,分析战斗力指数,得出其计算模型。并以相关抗击率以及安全率表征总体效能指标,较好地解决了对大区域防空作战效能的评估问题。模型简洁,便于理解,易于计算。 相似文献
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面向作战任务的弹药消耗预测模型研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
针对战时弹药供应存在断供以及盲供问题,从实战情况出发,按照宏观把握与微观分析相结合的思想,在重点分析弹药消耗规律与补给特点的基础上,建立了基于消耗规律的战时弹药预测模型.以红蓝双方对抗演习为背景,以影响弹药消耗与补给的各类因素为落脚点,通过数值计算与结果对比分析,验证了预测方法的有效性,一定程度上为指挥员宏观层面上整体把握弹药消耗规律,快速制定弹药补给方案提供了重要的辅助支撑作用. 相似文献
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针对多要素在非对称作战中运用的复杂影响,建立了基于Multi-Agent的仿真模型,对非对称作战的有效性进行了数学解释;给出了Multi-Agent的系统结构,在EINsTein仿真平台中设置了指挥决策Agent、态势感知Agent、通信协作Agent和作战行动Agent,以此模拟作战要素在非对称作战中运用的主要功能,进而演示非对称作战的过程,获得非对称作战的仿真实验数据;仿真模型描述了多要素影响下作战体系的突变现象;通过作战目的的实现和高倍增的作战效果,实证了仿真模型的有效性和可行性。 相似文献
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James G. Taylor 《海军后勤学研究》1982,29(4):617-633
This paper studies Lanchester-type combat between two homogeneous forces modeled by the so-called general linear model with continuous replacements/withdrawals. It demonstrates that this model can be transformed into a simpler canonical form, which is also shown to arise from fixed-force-level-breakpoint battles modeled by Lanchester-type equations for modern warfare. Analytical expressions for the force levels for the general variable coefficient linear model with continuous replacements/withdrawals are constructed out of so-called general Lanchester functions for the model without replacements/withdrawals, for which all solutions are shown to be nonoscillatory in the strict sense. These force-level results are unfortunately so complicated and opaque that the constant-coefficient version of the model must be studied before any insights into the dynamics of combat may be analytically obtained. Thus, fairly complete results are given for the general linear model with constant attrition-rate coefficients and constant rates of replacement/withdrawal. However, the expressions for the force levels are still so complicated that we have not been able to develop battle-outcome prediction conditions directly from them alone but have had to establish general results on the qualitative behavior of solutions. A significant result (and one that greatly complicates the prediction of battle outcome) is that all solutions to the model with replacements/withdrawals are no longer necessarily nonoscillatory in the strict sense, i.e., both sides force levels can take on negative values if the force-on-force attrition equations are not “turned off” at the right time. Thus, this paper shows that the addition of continuous replacements/withdrawals to a Lanchester-type model may significantly change the qualitative behavior of the force-level trajectories. Battle-outcome prediction conditions are nevertheless given, and important insights into the dynamics of combat are briefly indicated. 相似文献
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This article analyses the impact of the Korean War on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), particularly the period of positional warfare from 1951 to 1953. In the war of movement between October 1950 and June 1951, the PLA relied on its civil war era weapons and experience, including the doctrine of ‘battle of annihilation’. Operations in early 1951 suggested that the civil war legacies of the PLA no longer applied to the realities of combat in Korea. Based on both Soviet aid and domestic mobilisation, the PLA managed to build the material foundation for positional warfare and rapidly improved its logistics. Operationally, on the defensive, the PLA developed combined operations integrating infantry, artillery, and armoured forces. The PLA learned the lessons of the Korean War and strengthened its ties with the Soviet armed forces in order to modernise itself. The Korean War thus transformed the PLA from Civil War victor to Cold War guard. 相似文献
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Kirstin J. H. Brathwaite 《Defence Studies》2018,18(1):1-18
How do we understand combat effectiveness – soldiers’ performance in battle? Despite the broad consensus that understanding combat effectiveness is important both for scholars and policymakers, there is widespread disagreement about what combat effectiveness is. More specifically, studies of effectiveness tend to focus on either the skill of soldiers in battle, or their will to fight. Yet both skill and will are essential components of an effective fighting force. This article argues that understanding combat effectiveness requires understanding both of these key components of effectiveness. In other words, combat effectiveness requires both the skill and will to engage the enemy in an organized manner. It then demonstrates the usefulness of this conceptualization by applying it to the cases of British, Indian, and Australian forces fighting the Japanese during the Second World War. Only when scholars are talking about the same concept will our understanding of the conditions under which militaries are effective in battle progress. By comparing different units fighting the same opponent under the same material conditions, I demonstrate that units vary both in their combat skill and their will to fight, and that understanding their effectiveness in battle requires analyzing both of these key factors. 相似文献
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This paper investigates the multivariate Polya distribution (MPD) for application in combat models for which enemy targets must be randomly assigned to fighting units. Six sets of actual combat data motivate the allocation model. Scenarios include air‐to‐air combat, tank, and submarine warfare. Goodness of fit tests are derived which verify the validity of the MPD, and reinforce the notion that multinomial allocation is too simplistic for such combat models. Simulations to determine optimal allocations for minimal combat cost are applied in order to illustrate the role of the MPD in combat modeling. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons,Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 1–17, 2001 相似文献
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In modern warfare, many believe the decisive factor in winning a battle is seizing the right moment to shift from defense to attack, or vice versa. This paper attempts to bring that perspective to Lanchester's differential equations of warfare, and continues the application of Lanchester's linear law to the analysis of the World War II battle of Ardennes, as reported in earlier issues of Naval Research Logistics by Bracken and by Fricker. A new variable, shift time, accounting for the timing of the shift between defense and attack is explicitly included in our version of the model, and it helps obtain improved goodness of fit to historical data. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:653–661, 2001 相似文献
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James G. Taylor 《海军后勤学研究》1983,30(1):113-131
This article considers combat between two homogeneous forces modeled by variable- coefficient Lanchester-type equations of modern warfare and develops new “simple-approximate” battle-outcome-prediction conditions for military engagements terminated by two different types of prescribed conditions being met (fixed-force-level-breakpoint battles and fixed-force-ratio-breakpoint battles). These battle-outcome-prediction conditions are sufficient (but not necessary) to determine the outcome of battle without having to explicitly compute the force-level trajectories, and they are characterized by their simplicity, requiring no advanced mathematical knowledge or tabulations of “special functions” for their application. Integrability properties of the Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients figure prominently in their results, and involved in their development is a generalization of Lanchester's famous square law to variable-coefficient Lanchester-type combat and several other novel mathematical developments for the analysis of ordinary differential equations. Examples are given, with the attack of a mobile force against a static defensive position (both sides armed with weapons whose firepower is range dependent) being examined in detail. 相似文献
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James G. Taylor 《海军后勤学研究》1980,27(1):109-121
This paper studies combat between two homogeneous forces modelled with variable-coefficient Lanchester-type equations of modern warfare with supporting fires not subject to attrition. It shows that this linear differential-equation model for combat with supporting fires may be transformed into one without the supporting fires so that all the previous results for variable-coefficient Lanchester-type equations of modern warfare (without supporting fires) may be invoked. Consequently, new important results for representing the solution (i.e. force levels as functions of time) in terms of canonical Lanchester functions and also for predicting force annihilation are developed for this model with supporting fires. Important insights into the dynamics of combat between two homogeneous forces with such supporting fires are discussed. 相似文献
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测速雷达使用新方法研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
通过舰炮武器系统测速雷达作战使用分析,提出初速预测新模型、修正量新模型等测速雷达使用新方法。分别对使用新方法前后效能进行比较仿真,仿真证明,本方法极大地提高了舰炮武器系统对海作战时首群命中效能。所提出的方法对于提高舰炮武器作战效能具有理论和实际意义。 相似文献
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Benjamin Armstrong 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2013,24(1):171-193
Maritime interests in the twenty-first century are not immune to the growing number of irregular challenges and hybrid threats that have come to dominate land warfare. In order to better understand these challenges a study of naval history can help provide a vital foundation. In the early 1830s the United States Navy dispatched the frigate USS Potomac to Sumatra to investigate a pirate attack on the spice trader Friendship. Potomac's crew of sailors and Marines conducted a landing at the village Quallah Batoo and fought a pitched battle. As the navies of the world approach naval irregular warfare in the new century, studying past examples like Potomac's mission can help illuminate the principles of successful naval irregular warfare. 相似文献