COUPS AND COUP ATTEMPTS IN AFRICA

Coups and coup attempts are a phenomenon that has ravaged the African continent from the time of independence to the present. Despite the common belief that increased democratic practices should lead to fewer incidents of coups or coup attempts, this appears not to be the case. Despite the political determination not to reward military governments or those that have arisen from extra-constitutional arrangements, through welcoming them into the community of states, the scourge continues. This article seeks to identify other possible explanations for the prevalence of this phenomenon. The suggested models include greed and a crisis of expectations; naivety, ignorance and gullibility; and foreign intervention. The paper also provides a review of the prevalence of coups on the continent and a brief coverage of conceptual factors, which provides some understanding of civil-military relations as well as an indication of what the future holds.     

基于单一聚类方法的航空器相撞HFACS诱发模式分析

为了有效防控航空器相撞事故的发生,保证航空系统安全、有序和高效运行,提出一种基于单一聚类过程的人为因素分析分类系统(HFACS)诱发模式分析方法。在该方法中,首先,根据航空器相撞的具体特点建立了HFACS。然后,利用HFACS对发生的航空器相撞事故/事故征候进行量化,构建历史信息的数据表。最后,采用单一聚类方法对得到的数据表进行诱发模式分析,识别出重要的诱发模式及模式中包含的重要影响因素,并据此提出防相撞的管控措施。实例分析表明,所提出方法的实现过程简便,定性定量结合,形式易于理解,分析结果也更加贴近实际,对于提升防相撞的管理和决策水平,防范航空器相撞及减少造成的损失具有重要的实用价值。     

TERRORISM: FACTS FROM FIGURES 1

If international terrorism is on a rising trend, an important source of confirmation or refutation of this is time‐series data on terrorist activity. Using chiefly data collected by the RAND/MIPT consortium we show using basic statistical analysis that in the period 1968–2005 the yearly number of all international terrorist incidents shows no trend over time, but fluctuates year on year in a random manner. On the other hand some indicators do show a definite trend over time, principally the steady rise in the number of incidents that are death‐dealing in nature. A further conclusion is drawn, showing that the proportion of these incidents leading to deaths above a given level is virtually fixed.     

浅析邓小平处置群体性事件的思想方法

改革开放初期，随着人民群众利益关系调整和思想观念转变，一些地方相继发生了学生请愿游行、群众械斗、聚众冲击党政机关等群体性事件。邓小平同志从处理改革发展稳定的关系入手，形成了“冷静分析形势、端正处置态度、积极化解矛盾”等处置群体性事件的正确思想和方法，展现出高超的政治智慧。这些思想方法，对现阶段武警部队履行维护国家安全和社会稳定、保障人民安居乐业的职能使命具有很强的指导意义。     

The management of security incidents by private security

This article is about the management of security incidents in organisations and companies which are under the protection of private security personnel, whether in-house or contracted. Incidents can be defined as accidental or anecdotal (bird flies into a camera) to a violation of law or company policy. Managing security incidents is one of the key functions of a private security service provider. The purpose of this study is to explore the management of security incidents and the information related thereto, identify shortcomings and find solutions for managing these shortcomings. Interviews were used to gain insight from personnel within the private and government sectors which are served by the private security industry. It was found that security incidents are handled in a routine way by organisations from the different sectors. One major shortcoming is that security incidents and the information related thereto are not managed by security service providers according to an operational framework or model with the required infrastructure and resources. The significance of this study is for security incidents to be managed correctly, so that the information related thereto may be captured accurately, analysed and used proactively and reactively to improve physical protection systems, develop preventative strategies and provide actionable information products in order to reduce crime, increase detection rates and prevent losses.     

武警高原处突、维稳分队官兵身体习服

高原低氧环境下的处突、维稳已成为现阶段武警部队的重要任务。提高低氧习服能力是保证官兵健康和部队战斗力的重要手段,运动锻炼、营养改善、睡眠保证以及易感个体的预测,是促进部队低氧习服的有效措施。     

群体性事件网络舆情传播规律与对策研究

随着互联网的不断普及,现实世界发生的群体性事件往往迅速在虚拟的网络世界引起强烈反响,一旦处理不当将会引发甚至恶化群体性事件。通过分析群体性事件与网络舆情之间的关系,研究群体性事件网络舆情形成机制与传格规律．并在此基础上提出应对群体性事件网络舆情的对策。     

处理群体性事件应注意的语言方法艺术

随着新旧体制的更换、经济转轨和社会转型,由各种社会矛盾引发的群体性事件愈来愈多,并呈现愈来愈复杂和激烈的特点。但是绝大部分群体性事件仍然属于人民内部矛盾,只能采取团结-批评-团结、说理教育等解决人民内部矛盾的方法来平息,因而对领导干部掌握正确的处理群体性事件的语言方法艺术提出了紧迫而严格的现实要求。本文正是从这一现实背景出发,通过分析群体性事件的特点,结合各级各部门多年来处理群体性事件的经验,提出处理群体性事件应注意的十点语言方法艺术。     

面元法的红外制导图像边缘检测

红外图像通常存在着噪声大、目标和背景之间具有较小的灰度差、边缘较模糊的特点,使现有的方法不能有效地提取红外图像的边缘。而图像的表面积特征能较好地针对红外图像的这些特征提取出边缘,因此利用图像的表面积特征提出了一种实用的面元边缘检测法。在对图像灰度值变化情况进行分析的基础上,使用了一种十字面积计算公式以满足边缘检测的需要。通过噪声误差对面元法和梯度法计算结果的影响分别进行分析,发现面元法比梯度法的噪声抑制能力至少高两倍,而且在边缘处的噪声抑制能力更高。将面元法几种常用模板算子法的红外图像边缘检测结果进行实际对比后发现,所提出的面元法对红外图像的目标边缘检测能取得良好的结果。     

速射转管炮射击精度的影响因素及对策

速射转管炮作为近程反导武器系统的重要一员,射击精度影响着其最终防御效果,通过对速射转管炮特点及其射击偏差机理的分析,研究了转管炮射击过程中身管转速、弹丸初速等多种因素对射击精度的影响,并在转管炮初始设计、弹道模型和校射等方面提出了修正误差、提高射击精度的方法。     

Success and Failure in Terrorist Investigations: Research and Lessons from Northern Ireland

Police investigations of terrorist incidents are rarely straightforward. This paper reports the findings of research that looked at low-level paramilitary attacks in Northern Ireland which have taken place during the ceasefire era. Of 500 incidents studied, 28 were followed by the arrest of suspects. The study examines what factors were important for linking later arrests with other features of the incident. These results are discussed in terms of the wider implications for the successful investigation of paramilitary offences and in terms of the specific implications for investigative policing within Northern Ireland.     

Place–time correlation of robbery incidents in metropolitan Lagos: a Mantel index analysis

This article investigates the correlation of space and time in the clustering of robbery incidents in metropolitan Lagos. Analysis was carried out on 781 selected robbery incidents in 2013. Using the Mantel index to correlate place and time intervals for pairs of robbery incidents, the results show that robberies are respectively concentrated in residential areas, transport nodes and public places, peaking at midnight during weekdays. The results further show that this concentration is most likely greater than what would be expected on the basis of a chance distribution. The study concludes that various factors may exist which cause clusters of robberies to occur in these places at these times.     

Uranium yellowcake trafficking incidents in Africa

The perpetuation of an otherwise astute fissile material safeguards model by the current non-proliferation regime raises a number of concerns, not least the efficacy of the approach in reducing clandestine weapon developments and the nuclear terrorism threat. Mindful of potential shifts in illicit nuclear material and weapon acquisition, following an excessive focus on fissile material safeguards and the proliferation of nuclear weapon technology, this article uses proliferation trend and scenario analysis in a bid to identify potential proliferation threats and non-proliferation opportunities. The results of the article's assessment of reported incidents (1992–2013) involving theft, unauthorised possession, and attempts to smuggle or sell highly enriched uranium (HEU), plutonium, low-enriched uranium (LEU), natural uranium and uranium yellowcake reveal a decline in occurrences involving fissile material but an increase in uranium yellowcake incidents, particularly in Africa. Presumptions that yellowcake may have provided the newest threat to clandestine weapon developments and nuclear terrorism wane amid concerns over possible biases in reporting, scepticism over an organised and demand-driven nuclear black market, and the difficulties of non-state actors’ development of crude nuclear weapons off the tedious yellowcake conversion-enrichment-fabrication pathway. To secure Africa's uranium yellowcake from potential proliferators, the article proposes concerted domestic, regional and multilateral non-proliferation efforts.     

别斯兰事件后俄罗斯反恐机制的重建

随着苏联的解体,本来著称于世的强效反恐机制一夜之间分崩离析,反恐部门权责不清,协调不畅,反恐不力,恐怖势力乘虚而入,俄罗斯频频处于恐怖事件威胁之下。别斯兰事件给俄罗斯敲响了警钟。通过实施一系列有效措施,俄罗斯重建反恐机制,并取得明显效果。     

弹药库防静电方法研究

根据弹药库静电危险场所的分类等级,以形成静电危害的3个基本条件为依据,讨论了弹药库防静电危害常用措施:设施设备静电接地、防静电工作台、人体静电防护、铺设导电(或防静电)地面以及各自防静电要求.这些措施为防止和消除弹药库的静电危害提供了根本保障.     

面向突发事件的应急指挥控制敏捷性度量及仿真?

现阶段，国内外应急事件时有发生，如何快速有效地实施应急指挥控制是处置社会公共安全突发事件的核心要求之一。因此，以OODA模型为基础提出了一种基于敏捷性指标的应急指挥控制过程模型和一种基于Lotka?Volterra模型的度量指挥控制敏捷性的数学计算方法，并以地铁突发爆炸事故为背景，对应急指挥控制的敏捷性与指挥控制效果进行了仿真分析和对比。     

An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case

In this paper we evaluate what terrorism policies have worked best in handling the Spanish ETA terrorism using time series data from 1968 to 2000. We consider the political, deterrence and economic effects, and conclude that their influence on terrorism incidents is mixed. A parsimonious model shows that the behaviour of different terrorism incidents is distinct and the lagged effect is a primary concern. A policy to manage this case is devised.     

Is South Africa's 20 years of democracy in crisis? Examining the impact of unrest incidents in local protests in the post-apartheid South Africa

This article assesses South Africa's 20 years of democracy, which has frequently been bedevilled by local protests. This article is particularly interested in those unrest incidents that have been distinct for one reason or another. In South Africa, the surge in local unrest incidents is often linked to police behaviour, which has become increasingly militant and brutal when quelling protests. While the right to protest is constitutional, the damage caused during protest action can be immense owing to acts of violence. Protestors' resorting to violent protest action is often linked to increased frustrations as a result of the government's inability to live up to the expectations of marginalised and poor communities. While this article draws primarily on existing scholarly debates focusing on social protests, the primary objective is to examine the impact of unrest incidents on local protests in post-apartheid South Africa. The article further argues that ‘spaces’ for participation in local governance should be created so that citizens can become architects of development and their own future.     

An approach to the allocation of common costs of multi-mission systems

Many Naval systems, as well as other military and civilian systems, generate multiple missions. An outstanding problem in cost analysis is how to allocate the costs of such missions so that their true costs can be determined and resource allocation optimized. This paper presents a simple approach to handling this problem for single systems. The approach is based on the theory of peak-load pricing as developed by Marcel Boiteux. The basic principle is that the long-run marginal cost of a mission must be equal to its “price.” The implication of this is that if missions can cover their own marginal costs, they should also be allocated some of the marginal common costs. The proportion of costs to be allocated is shown to a function of not only the mission-specific marginal costs and the common marginal costs, but also of the “mission price.” Thus, it is shown that measures of effectiveness must be developed for rational cost allocation. The measurement of effectiveness has long been an intractable problem, however. Therefore, several possible means of getting around this problem are presented in the development of the concept of relative mission prices.