The contexts of strategy as a guide for defense planning in the Philippines

Efforts toward developing an independent and credible Philippine defense policy were revived when Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III was elected President of the Philippines in 2010. President Aquino renewed the military modernization program in 2012 and emphasized the necessity of a “minimum credible defense posture.” Given the modernization efforts of the government, this article aims to contribute to the development of the concept of minimum credible defense posture by exploring how theory contributes to defense planning. It argues that the contexts of strategy are useful in planning for national defense because these contexts can provide a conceptual framework for defense planners. It proceeds in three parts: the opening section reviews the literature on defense planning; the second surveys the context of developing strategies as discussed in the General Theory of Strategy; and the last provides a definition of minimum credible defense and applies the context of developing strategies to the case of the Philippines.     

Portfolio analysis for defense: taking account of networking

To manage their assets at an enterprise level, defense organizations have turned to portfolio theory for the planning, analysis and management of their military forces and materiel. Despite being well established in the commercial sector, the application of portfolio approaches in defense is problematic. The vexatious question for defense of how to define and measure benefits arising is complicated by the increased utility and effectiveness achieved through networking of military forces and the equipment they use. The authors discuss the challenges for defense in using a portfolio approach and propose a conceptual model for dealing with the effects arising from networking with information and communications technologies.     

Making defense planning meaningful: the evolution of strategic guidance in the Hungarian Ministry of Defense

Hungary, a former communist state, adapted a Western-style defense planning system during the 1990s and 2000s. Although on the surface the elements of this planning system were similar to the planning programming budgeting system (PPBS) developed by the US Department of Defense, strategic guidance for defense planning has not been properly developed until recently. Thus, albeit PPBS-based defense plans were developed in the Hungarian Ministry of Defense (Hungarian MoD) regularly, they lacked both an expression of clear priorities and strategic focus. This article delineates the evolution of strategic guidance in the Hungarian MoD concentrating on current developments, and introduces the newly elaborated analytical concepts and tools, which helped to create needed strategic guidance in Hungary.     

空天防御效能指标及其标准值的确定方法

空天领域的对抗决定了未来军事行动的进程和战争的胜败,空天威胁也已经成为各国国家军事安全的主要威胁。军事强国的全球打击系统、快速打击系统和弹道导弹的迅猛发展使得未来空天防御作战环境越来越复杂,也对空天防御作战提出了更高要求。空天防御是信息化空天时代的主要作战样式之一,是维护国家安全的重要屏障。本文提出了空天防御的充分性准则以及保证空天防御充分性的主要途径,分析了拟制空天防御力量行动方案的一般流程。文中所提出的空天防御效能指标以及确定和保证标准值指标的方法,能够从经济学视角较为合理、充分地构建和实施空天防御,对空天防御作战规划理论建议有一定参考价值,也能为发展空天防御作战规划系统提供研究思路和技术支撑。     

基于运输问题的国防动员任务规划模型研究

国防动员任务规划为执行动员保障任务提供明确的方案计划,是高效有序开展国防动员协同保障的重要前提和关键环节,既要综合考虑各类影响因素,又要确保对接结果适时、适量、适地、适度。本文分析了动员任务规划的现实问题,通过梳理实际开展动员任务规划的阶段步骤,明确了动员任务规划模型的研究内涵和边界;在此基础上,建立了国防动员任务规划的一般性模型,将动员任务规划问题的核心归结为运输问题,并对其与非平衡运输模型的等效性进行了分析;针对实际信息系统建设实践中动员任务规划的情况,提出了结合动员规模、保障规模、综合效益三类决策因子后的模型改进方案,并提出了相应的模型算法实现思路,对指导相关信息系统的建设具有重要的理论支撑价值。     

用于任务规划的航母编队防空威胁建模

建立正确的航母编队防空威胁模型是反航母任务规划成功的前提,在分析网络化条件下航母编队综合防空反导体系作战特点基础上,综合考虑反舰导弹性能、防空雷达网和编队防空火力威胁等因素,利用加权指数方法建立了网络化条件下航母编队综合防空网络威胁模型。仿真结果表明该模型能够体现航母网络化防空体系的真实情况,可以用于反航母任务规划。     

美国国防部资助的实验室体系架构

美国国防部管理或委托管理的实验室散布在大学、联邦资助的研发中心和直属科研机构中，是美国国防科技创新体系的一支重要力量。文章从科研经费、人员规模、研究特色等方面对这些实验室进行分类介绍和分析，勾勒出其体系架构，以期对我们布局和建设以国防科技研发为核心任务的实验室、中心等科研机构提供参考。     

Japan’s Emerging Trajectory as a ‘Cyber Power’: From Securitization to Militarization of Cyberspace

Japan has been overlooked as a ‘cyber power’ but it now becoming a serious player in this new strategic domain. Japanese policy-makers have forged a consensus to move cybersecurity to the very core of national security policy, to create more centralized frameworks for cybersecurity, and for Japan’s military institutions to build dynamic cyberdefense capabilities. Japan’s stance has moved rapidly toward the securitization and now militarization of responses to cyber challenges. Japan’s cybersecurity stance has bolstered US–Japan alliance responses to securing all dimensions of the ‘global commons’ and extended its defense perimeter to further deter but potentially raise tensions with China.     

US strategic preferences in the early twenty-first century

This article investigates how US national security planners have envisioned the emerging strategic environment during the early twenty-first century and evaluates how their perceptions of this strategic environment have changed during these years. This conceptual evolution can be seen in how defense planners define threats, identify defense priorities, and design security strategies. Five key strategic planning documents serve as the basis for this analysis and illustrate significant shifts in how the US government has envisioned its own security requirements as well as the context within which its strategic vision will need to be realized. These planning documents are: (1) Joint Vision 2020, (2) the Bush Administration's 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States, (3) the Obama Administration's 2010 National Security Strategy, (4) US Strategic Defense Guidance entitled Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21^st Century Defense, and (5) the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Joint Force 2020.     

Robust shortest path planning and semicontractive dynamic programming

In this article, we consider shortest path problems in a directed graph where the transitions between nodes are subject to uncertainty. We use a minimax formulation, where the objective is to guarantee that a special destination state is reached with a minimum cost path under the worst possible instance of the uncertainty. Problems of this type arise, among others, in planning and pursuit‐evasion contexts, and in model predictive control. Our analysis makes use of the recently developed theory of abstract semicontractive dynamic programming models. We investigate questions of existence and uniqueness of solution of the optimality equation, existence of optimal paths, and the validity of various algorithms patterned after the classical methods of value and policy iteration, as well as a Dijkstra‐like algorithm for problems with nonnegative arc lengths.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:15–37, 2019     

Country Survey XIII: Japan's security posture and defense industry prospects

Defense budgets in Japan have been complicated compromises from numerous inputs ‐ including threat perceptions, domestic industrial/technological base development, support for the bilateral security treaty with the United States and internal bureaucratic politics ‐ but with the fall of the former Soviet Union, the clearest justification for higher spending disappeared. Double‐digit defense spending increases that were common in the 1980s have been replaced by annual increases lower than present inflation rates, resulting in negative real growth in the country's defense budget. Domestic economic problems and consistent government pressures for smaller budgets have further slowed annual growth in total spending and have contributed to lower procurement budgets. As a result, the domestic Japanese defense industry is facing far more constrained conditions from the growth years of a decade before.

Government policymakers are examining Japan's regional security environment as well as its alliance with the United States to determine the appropriate course for the country to take in the coming years. The formal security treaty with the United States is likely to remain a major element of government positions, but other aspects of the country's overall security posture are open to debate. Perceptions of a reduced threat environment are fueling additional pressures for defense budget cuts.

The domestic defense industry seeks means to assure its survival in domestic defense markets in this constrained environment. Expansion into overseas markets to offset declining domestic markets is an option that currently is constrained by policy restrictions on arms exports. Industry is advocating re‐examination of those policies and unlike earlier years, government appears willing to respond positively but cautiously to this lobbying.     

When Programming Trumps Policy and Plans: The Case of the US Department of the Navy11

Traditionally, policy and planning have been institutionally weak in the Naval Staff (Office of the Chief of Naval Operations – OPNAV). In their place, the N8 (Programming) has dominated resource decision-making, and, by default, decisions relating to policy and planning. Recent uncertainty over defense authorization and appropriations has resulted in calls for a greater role to be played by the N3/5, Policy and Plans Directorate. The article argues that reform of the Department of the Navy’s planning process is urgently needed. OPNAV’s weak planning and overly dominant programming practices are compared with those of the Departments of the Army and Air Force and are shown to be out of conformance with them. The article concludes with specific and detailed recommendations for reform of both the current planning and programming processes.     

军队科研机构推进国防知识产权转化运用

军队科研机构作为国家科技创新体系的重要组成部分,承担了大量科技创新任务,产生了许多具有自主知识产权的高水平科技成果,推动军队科研机构国防知识产权转化运用,是贯彻军民融合发展战略的必要途径。分析了军队科研机构国防知识产权转化的现状及制约转化的现实障碍,并结合实际探讨了推进军队科研机构国防知识产权转化的建议举措。     

基于随机时间的导弹机动路径规划研究

根据导弹作战机动过程各路段机动时间随机性特点,运用随机规划理论建立了导弹机动任务规划的数学模型,设计了遗传算法求解策略,实现了在一定时间内合理地规划机动路线的任务,并通过算例作了说明。该方法可用于导弹机动路径选择,为导弹作战机动计划的制定提供决策依据。     

要地防卫反无人机装备发展与启示

无人机技术的发展及其在现代战场的广泛应用，给机场、阵地、营地、指挥所等要地的防空体系带来新的挑战。以俄罗斯铠甲武器系统为首的弹炮结合末段防空系统代表了要地防卫装备的重要发展方向。本文从无人机技术发展对要地防空系统的新威胁出发，探讨传统防空武器系统在执行要地防卫过程中应对低、慢、小无人机目标可能存在的技术问题，并对比分析了监测控制类、直接摧毁类和干扰反制类等典型反无人机技术的特点，然后针对俄罗斯“铠甲”弹炮结合武器系统发展的过程、反无人机作战案例及其在要地防卫作战中的应用特点等进行深入探讨，最后针对要地防卫反无人机装备的发展提出若干建议。研究结果可为开展要地防卫反无人机装备的体系规划和发展论证提供参考。     

Initiatives in Africa

Since the 1st oil crisis in 1973, the economies of sub-Saharan Africa have barely kept pace with their burgeoning populations. Women in Sub-Saharan Africa give birth more often than women in any other region of the world, with an average of more than 6.5 live births each. The region's natural increase average 2.5% a year in the 1960s, 2.7% in the 1970s, and in the mid-1980s, it is 3.1% per annum--a rate that will double the regions population in 22 years. National leaders in Sub-Saharan Africa were slow to consider population policy as a key component of the social and economic development effort. The neglect of population issues is reflected in the limited scope of public or private family planning programs in the sub-continent. Donor countries and institutions play an important role in developing the information base by providing technical training to government staff, supporting research, and disseminating information to a broad spectrum of political actors. Some examples of policy reconsiderations in Nigeria, Zambia, Liberia, and Niger are given. These countries are starting to give active consideration to population policies to reduce fertility and high rates of population growth by expanding family planning services, raising the age of marriage, improving the status of women, providing family-life education, and incorporating economic incentives for smaller families into the provision of social services. The highly centralized nature of African governments dictates that the acquiescence of the governmental elite must be obtained before any policy can take hold. Overall, high population growth rates in combination with a stagnating social and economic development effort throughout the region have provided the catalyst for a new look at Sub-Saharan Africa population policy. The ability of African nations to implement policies that reduce fertility is more open to question; no African nation has as yet done so, and the socioeconomics factors contributing to high fertility remain strong.     

加快推动国防科技和武器装备军民融合发展

国防科技和武器装备领域是军民融合发展的重点,也是衡量军民融合发展水平的重要标志。加快国防科技和武器装备军民融合发展,是保军强军的重要支撑,更关乎国家安全和发展一系列重大问题,必须从战略高度深刻领会其全局意义,以清醒头脑研判国防科技和武器装备军民融合发展形势,用务实举措推动国防科技和武器装备军民融合创新发展。     

美国国防太空力量发展的动向及应对 ——基于对美国2020年《国防太空战略》的解读

发展国防太空力量是美国谋划大国竞争的战略支点。特朗普政府执政以来,为捍卫一超独霸的太空地位,加速推进太空军事化进程,已制定《国家太空战略》,签署新的太空政策指令,成立第六军种“天军”。2020年6月,美国公开最新版《国防太空战略》报告。本文对其梳理分析以研判美国国防太空力量发展动向,并运用网络调研法搜集近年美国政府部门关于国防太空力量发展的权威政策文本及知名智库的深度研究报告。在此基础上,把美国2020年最新版《国防太空战略》作为中心文本,以文献分析法归纳美国国防太空力量发展的动因、目标及行动计划。中国作为负责任的发展中太空大国,应当积极借鉴并应对美国2020年《国防太空战略》：内强素质,提升国防太空军事技术硬实力;外树形象,在国际场合积极推动太空和平利用的政策议程。     

野战防空C~3I与防空兵作战指挥控制

陆军防空兵自动化指挥系统已作为防空作战效能“倍增器”列入国家军装武器发展规划,并在近期可能交付防空部队使用。这一新装备、新技术的出现和发展必然会引起防空作战指挥的变化。在分析防空兵指挥自动化对防空作战指挥影响的基础上,对如何发挥防空兵自动化指挥的防空作战效能和防空兵指挥自动化需迫切解决的一些问题加以探讨。     

美军语言智能处理技术的发展策略与启示

发展语言智能处理技术是全球新军事科技研发的重要趋势。美军在几十年的发展过程中,不遗余力地推进新的语言智能技术的研发与应用。在人工智能宏观政策和举措的带动下,美国政府与军方在语言智能领域采取了较为清晰的战略路线:明确需求方向,注重长远规划;重视军民融合,调动地方研发活力;创新技术研发资金的管理模式,提高发展效率;推动技术在关键领域的应用,加快美军战斗力的形成。本文认为,面对这一趋势,我们需要深度布局国防语言智能处理技术战略,重视面向未来需求的长远规划;充分调动语言智能处理技术研发的"民间力量",注重军产学研的协同创新;建立科学适度的项目研发机制,加快颠覆性技术的战斗力转化。