世界新军事变革对国际反恐行动的负面影响及对策

首先,世界新军事变革发展的不平衡性造就和助长了世界军事霸权,刺激国际恐怖活动进一步滋长蔓延。随着军事霸权而来的是政治霸权、经济霸权和文化霸权,成为了国际恐怖主义的助推器。霸权主义的政治输出和干涉他国内政,造成了一些国家的政治动荡;对弱小国家的经济掠夺和不平等竞争,不断拉大世界的贫富差距;意识形态和文化的侵略,引发了错综复杂的宗教纷争和民族仇视,为恐怖主义的滋长和蔓延埋下了种子。延续多年、难有尽期的巴以民族仇杀,就是美国插手中东、偏袒以色列的恶果。     

多措并举的2014年国际反恐

时值年末,回首2014年,全球先后发生恐怖袭击事件9000余起,共造成18000余人死亡,其中半数以上发生在伊拉克、巴基斯坦、阿富汗、印度、菲律宾、泰国、尼日利亚、也门、叙利亚和索马里。一年来,为打击和根除恐怖主义,国际社会虽付出了巨大努力,取得了一定成效,但由于恐怖主义的产生、发展与蔓延有着复杂的历史、社会、政治、经济、民族与宗教背景,短时间内还是难以遏制,世界反恐怖形势仍十分严峻。当前,我们正在经历恐怖主义的一次回潮,值得引起国际社会的高度关注和警惕。     

兵团如何更好地发挥屯垦戍边的作用

胡锦涛同志先后两次到新疆考察工作,一再强调,敌对势力加紧对我国实施西化、分化战略;国际恐怖主义、民族分裂主义、宗教极端主义三股势力活动猖獗,对我国新疆的影响不可忽视;新的形势,对加强兵团建     

国际恐怖主义活动弧形地带及其影响分析

当前,国际恐怖主义活动集中分布于一个狭长、连续的"弧形地带",即中东-中亚-南亚-东南亚恐怖主义活动地带.受这一"弧形地带"的包围与影响,我国主要面临以"东突"为代表的民族分裂势力、宗教极端势力和恐怖主义"三位一体"的威胁.同时,也要警惕"藏独"分裂势力发展及其恐怖化.此外,还要注意国内少数刑事犯罪分子有可能受这一"弧形地带"的影响,效仿其恐怖活动方式与手段铤而走险,对社会实施暴力恐怖犯罪活动.     

恐怖主义的主要特征及我国的边防对策

恐怖主义已成为世界一大公害,这一特殊的暴力形式具有以下特征政治性的目的;多样性的暴力手段;使民众产生恐慌心理的作用;杀伤目标的宽泛性;错综复杂的形成原因等.我国在边疆地区也面临着恐怖活动的威胁.恐怖主义、民族分裂势力和宗教极端势力成为危害社会安定与发展的重大隐患.边防部门应合理利用自身优势,采取有效的防范与打击措施,保证社会主义各项事业的顺利进行.     

做好军警民联合反恐斗争准备

冷战结束后,恐怖主义不断发展,呈现出组织国际化、力量军事化、破坏扩大化、手段多样化的趋势,已经成为国际公害,成为除战争之外对人类社会安全的最大威胁,严重影响着世界的和平与发展。在国内,受国际恐怖活动的影响,“东突”恐怖势力与宗教极端主义和民族分裂主义实施了一系列恐怖破坏活动,对我国各族人民的和平生活和生命财产安全构成了严重的威胁。     

谈恐怖主义的形成发展及反恐对策

恐怖主义的形成是与社会客观现实紧密联系在一起的,世界多极化、霸权主义、经济全球化、宗教文化冲突、传媒效应等社会现实问题是促使当代恐怖主义形成并迅速发展的根本原因,而这些原因反映出恐怖主义本质上就是一个社会问题。因此,要从根本上消除恐怖主义,必须以解决社会问题的思路来制定相应的对策,才能真正达到“治本”的目的。     

边疆反恐作战中的军交运输保障

近年来,恐怖主义势力对边疆地区的渗透已经成为严重威胁各国安全与稳定的一个焦点问题。国际社会对于边疆地区的反恐斗争日益重视,并采取了很多的联合行动,在一定程度上遏制了恐怖主义势力的进一步蔓延和发展。但由于边疆地区地理环境和民情、社情比较特殊,制约因素较多,特别是军事交通     

我国跨境恐怖主义犯罪特征分析

现代恐怖主义正在迅速蔓延全球，恐怖主义活动已经严重威胁了各国的国家安全和人民的正常生活，而且，现代恐怖主义越来越朝着国际化的方向发展，这种国际性恐怖主义犯罪活动的危害性和有效打击难度都明显加大。我国也不可避免地卷入到跨境恐怖主义犯罪漩涡中来。深入研究我国跨境恐怖主义犯罪活动的特征，以期提高防范和惩治我国跨境恐怖主义犯罪活动的针对性。     

防范和打击恐怖活动是我军神圣的历史使命

恐怖主义 :黑色力量进入 2 1世纪以来 ,恐怖主义作为当今世界第一大公害 ,在我们这个星球上毒瘤般地蔓延开来 ,对世界和平与安全构成严重威胁 ,给人们带来极大的心理震慑和心理恐慌。把恐怖主义称为“二十一世纪的政治瘟疫”、“一场永无休止的地下世界大战” ,一点也不为过。据美国兰德公司统计 ,当今世界上以极端主义、民族分裂主义、宗教主义、国家法西斯和黑社会性质为代表的恐怖组织有 1 0 0 0多个。恐怖主义的恶果冲击着整个世界 ,重大恐怖事件每年就造成数万人伤亡和上万亿美元的经济损失 ,反恐怖斗争已经成为看不见战线的正义战争 ,…     

东突恐怖主义成因分析

突厥文化和泛突厥主义的泛滥、伊斯兰复兴运动和泛伊斯兰主义的传播、新疆周边国家各种恐怖势力的影响、国际敌对势力的怂恿、改革开放以来国际交流的加强以及新疆特殊的地理位置 ,是我国新疆地区“东突”恐怖主义形成的重要条件 ,并对“东突”恐怖主义的泛滥起到了催化作用     

以色列反恐情报战略探讨

以色列是世界上第一个遭受国际恐怖主义威胁的国家。但通过明确分工和行之有效的反恐措施,以色列已经能够对付不断升级的恐怖主义威胁。自“9·11”事件以来,全球许多国家都开始向以色列求教国土安全方面的知识和专业技术。     

SECURITY BRIEF

September 11 2001 precipitated the introduction of anti-terrorism legislation in most states and enhanced cooperation between states around the world. Africa may not have witnessed many incidents of international terrorism on its soil, yet the continent has, in the post 9/11 era, often been referred to as the ‘breeding ground of terrorism’ or the conduit for international terrorists. The assumption that countries with weak governments and failing economies (as in most of the continent) seems to be one of the factors that earned Africa this negative image. While the validity of the assumption is debatable, it is clear that prosecuting cases of terrorism is fraught with legal intricacies. This article deals with the difficulties involved.     

Why a small probability of terror generates a large macroeconomic impact

The basic narrative of bargaining theory predicts that, all else equal, anarchy favors concessions to challengers who demonstrate the will and ability to escalate against defenders. For this reason, post-9/11 political science research explained terrorism as rational strategic behavior for non-state challengers to induce government compliance given their constraints. Over the past decade, however, empirical research has consistently found that neither escalating to terrorism nor with terrorism helps non-state actors to achieve their demands. In fact, escalating to terrorism or with terrorism increases the odds that target countries will dig in their political heels, depriving the non-state challengers of their given preferences. These empirical findings across disciplines, methodologies, as well as salient global events raise important research questions, with implications for counterterrorism strategy.     

Defence industries adjusting to change 1

This paper analyses the impact of terrorist activity on international tourist flows. To this end, we have estimated a cross‐sectional gravity equation for tourism from the G‐7 countries to a sample of 134 destinations over the period 2001–2003. Within this framework, we evaluate the deviation from ‘normal’ tourist flows due to terrorist activity, which is considered as negative advertising for the affected country. The analysis suggests that both domestic victims and international attacks are relevant factors when foreign tourists make their choice. This result is robust under alternative specifications. Moreover, the impact of terrorism is more severe in developing countries.     

TERRORISM AND AFRICA

This article first looks at the relationship between international terrorism and terrorism in Africa. Since sub-state terrorism is already endemic to Africa, the future threat potential in the continent lies in a complex mixture of sub-national and international terrorism. Africa may come to play a central role in international terrorism. The motivation, means and targets all exist and these opportunities will not go unheeded for much longer. Africa presents both a facilitating environment and a target-rich environment for terrorists that seek to attack the United States, and indeed the global system. The article concludes with some remarks on counter-strategies.     

Determining a role for a military ombudsman in the South African National Defence Force

In recent years, South Africa has come to be used by international terrorists as a safe house, for paramilitary training purposes, as a base from which to plan attacks on other countries and as a conduit for financial transactions. South Africa's own counter-terrorism initiatives have been labelled ‘reactive’ by analysts. Indeed, the existing counter-terrorism regime suffers from a lack of political will to issues of corruption and ineptitude bedevilling the security apparatus of the state. However, using lessons learned from other countries, Pretoria can yet turn the tide against international terrorism by adopting more pro-active measures and by undertaking steps aimed at the depoliticisation and decriminalisation of the security forces.     

境外反恐行动的理论研究与实践探索

境外反恐行动在国际上已有大量先例，对于一个境外目标面临恐怖威胁或遭受恐怖袭击的国家，是不容回避的现实问题。通过对境外反恐行动产生的根源、各国境外反恐的对策、采取的方式及其制约因素的综合分析，能够得出有益的启示。反恐怖斗争的严峻现实和发展趋势，要求我们探索境外反恐对策，切实保护国家利益和人民生命财产安全，同时为国际反恐斗争作出应有的贡献。     

Empirical Investigation into the Determinants of Terrorism: Evidence from Fragile States

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of terrorism in countries that are in the top category of the Fragile States Index (FSI), and are also prone to terrorism. Panel data for 38 countries mainly from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia for the years 2005–2014 are used. Findings from the negative binomial and fixed effects estimation show that fragile state, number of refugees and youth unemployment have positive and significant impacts on terrorism. Military spending is positive but less robust across models. Conversely, FDI and remittances have a negative impact on terrorism with the former less robust. Governance and foreign aid are negative and insignificantly related to terrorism. Policy implications follow from the findings.