武器装备LCC估算的不确定性问题研究

由于武器装备及武器装备采购市场的特殊性，使得武器装备LCC估算面临许多不确定性，影响估算装备寿命周期费用时的准确性和精确性。文章多角度地分析了武器装备面临的不确定性及其对武器装备LCC估算的影响，探讨了运用减少、简化、技术处理三步法对不确定性进行处理，以提高武器装备LCC估算的准确性和置信性。     

遗传规划在机载电子设备费用估算中的应用

在对现有电子设备费用估算方法进行简要回顾的基础上,对遗传规划的原理与方法进行了分析和研究,提出了基于遗传规划的机载电子设备生产费用估算模型,并完成了算法设计和程序编制工作.以历史数据为学习样本,根据所建模型对不同型号的机载电子设备生产费用进行了估算.结果表明, 模型简单易行、精度较高,为机载电子设备费用估算提供了一条新途径.     

基于系统贴近度的装备中修费用估算模型

装备维修费用是装备中修过程最直接、最敏感的决策因素,为科学合理地估算修理机构装备中修费用,通过对装备中修范围和中修费用结构的分析,运用模糊数学中的隶属度和贴近度相关理论以及平滑指数法建模思路,构建了基于系统贴近度的装备中修费用估算模型,并通过对某新入役装备进行估算分析,验证了该模型的科学性和结果的可靠性.     

软件保障费用估算模型研究

分析了软件保障费用的基本构成和一般表达式，构建了软件错误更改费用估算模型、新功能保障费用估算模型和有时间限制的保障费用估算模型，并结合实例进行了分析。软件保障模型估算的研究对提高软件保障费用估算的精度和效率有重要意义。     

地空导弹武器系统使用保障费用模型研究

从武器系统的使用保障特性入手,对地空导弹武器系统的使用保障费用进行了研究.确定了地空导弹武器系统使用保障费用结构,并建立了相应的费用模型.采用类比法估算新型号地空导弹武器系统使用保障费用并给出了实例,结果与实际支出费用相一致.估算结果可以为分析者、决策者做出正确结论和决策提供依据.     

装备再制造费用预测估算方法

在装备再制造周期及再制造费用基本概念的基础上,给出了再制造费用参数的相关内容,并阐述了工程估算法、专家判断估算法、参数估算法、类比估算法等4种装备再制造费用分析及预测估算的方法,构建了基于工程估算法的再制造费用分解结构,并对再制造费用分析流程进行了详细描述,可为形成正确的再制造设计方案提供费用决策依据。     

消防设备的费用估算

通过对防火设备、灭火装备的费用估算,介绍如何利用数学建模的方式进行消防设备费用估算的具体方法,并对火灾过程中装备费用的精确估算方法进行了初步探讨.     

地空导弹武器装备研制费用估算方法

通过对装备研制费用的组成和影响因素进行分析,建立了以系统设计水平、先进程度及重复设计为因子的参数费用估算模型,并建立了系统目标特性、射击能力、抗干扰性、可用性和地面机动性与系统设计水平、先进程度及重复设计的关系模型,实例证明此方法对地空导弹装备研制费用的估算切实有效.     

某型近程导航装备使用保障费用分析

使用保障费用的估算是寿命周期费用管理的重要组成部分.根据对使用保障费用类型的分析,建立了某型近程导航装备费用分解结构,描述了每类费用,并指出影响费用的因素.采用类比法详细分析了使用保障费用,依据敏感性分析的一般步骤,对费用进行敏感性分析,并给出了分析结果.该分析既指导该型装备年度使用保障费用的计划,又为降低费用提供途径,也为新装备费用的合理确立提供了参考方法.     

武器装备费用估算的一般程序

文章提出了我国武器装备费用估算过程的一般估算程序,主要内容包括:提出问题,制定目标;系统描述;明确假定和约束条件;选择费用估算方法,建立费用分解结构;选择已有类似装备或基准比较系统;收集和处理数据;建立费用模型并计算;分析评价;编写费用估算报告。     

Sensitivity analysis on responsive pricing and production under imperfect demand updating

This paper examines three types of sensitivity analysis on a firm's responsive pricing and responsive production strategies under imperfect demand updating. Demand has a multiplicative form where the market size updates according to a bivariate normal model. First, we show that both responsive production and responsive pricing resemble the classical pricing newsvendor with posterior demand uncertainty in terms of the optimal performance and first‐stage decision. Second, we show that the performance of responsive production is sensitive to the first‐stage decision, but responsive pricing is insensitive. This suggests that a “posterior rationale” (ie, using the optimal production decision from the classical pricing newsvendor with expected posterior uncertainty) allows a simple and near‐optimal first‐stage production heuristic for responsive pricing. However, responsive production obtains higher expected profits than responsive pricing under certain conditions. This implies that the firm's ability to calculate the first‐stage decision correctly can help determine which responsive strategy to use. Lastly, we find that the firm's performance is not sensitive to the parameter uncertainty coming from the market size, total uncertainty level and information quality, but is sensitive to uncertainty originating from the procurement cost and price‐elasticity.     

The fast deployment logistic ship project: Economic design and decision technique

This paper describes the way in which economic analyses, particularly life-cycle cost analyses and tradeoffs were structured for use as an integrated analysis and design technique at all levels of the Contract Definition of the Fast Deployment Logistic Ship. It describes system, subsystem and major component economic analysis and design methodology as well as economic analyses of special subjects such as the ship production facility design. Illustrations are provided of several major system parametric studies and of shipyard and manning/automation analyses.     

Problems in life cycle support cost estimation

Although industry is expected to design hardware to fit into a general support system and to be capable of arguing life-cycle system costs, adequate information has not been available on the support system in terms of policies and operating decision rules. Policies and operating decisions by users dominate engineering design decisions in determining life-cycle support costs. The relative effect of each of these decision areas on support costs has yet to be resolved empirically. Without an understanding of the sensitivity of support costs to alternative designs, capability is limited in design improvement and support of end items. Life-cycle costing of analysis under cost-effectiveness and the maintainability of integrated logistics support is open to question.     

Risk‐sensitive sizing of responsive facilities

We develop a risk‐sensitive strategic facility sizing model that makes use of readily obtainable data and addresses both capacity and responsiveness considerations. We focus on facilities whose original size cannot be adjusted over time and limits the total production equipment they can hold, which is added sequentially during a finite planning horizon. The model is parsimonious by design for compatibility with the nature of available data during early planning stages. We model demand via a univariate random variable with arbitrary forecast profiles for equipment expansion, and assume the supporting equipment additions are continuous and decided ex‐post. Under constant absolute risk aversion, operating profits are the closed‐form solution to a nontrivial linear program, thus characterizing the sizing decision via a single first‐order condition. This solution has several desired features, including the optimal facility size being eventually decreasing in forecast uncertainty and decreasing in risk aversion, as well as being generally robust to demand forecast uncertainty and cost errors. We provide structural results and show that ignoring risk considerations can lead to poor facility sizing decisions that deteriorate with increased forecast uncertainty. Existing models ignore risk considerations and assume the facility size can be adjusted over time, effectively shortening the planning horizon. Our main contribution is in addressing the problem that arises when that assumption is relaxed and, as a result, risk sensitivity and the challenges introduced by longer planning horizons and higher uncertainty must be considered. Finally, we derive accurate spreadsheet‐implementable approximations to the optimal solution, which make this model a practical capacity planning tool.© 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

典型航天装备试验鉴定总体策略研究

航天装备具有面向任务、科研性强、全系统的技术状态难以固定，以及小子样等特点，在全寿命周期内的试验策略与常规武器装备的差异很大。本文在介绍装备试验鉴定模式改革的基础上，分析了航天装备试验鉴定按照新模式进行的相应调整，重点给出了卫星系统、运载火箭和航天测控装备等典型航天装备的全寿命周期模型，设计了新体制下全寿命周期内的试验阶段和关键时间节点、主要试验类型、决策支持依据、试验方式方法，以及与原试验要求的继承关系等总体策略；同时，鉴于航天装备试验鉴定数据量小等特殊性，给出了有别于常规装备的数据采信原则。该试验鉴定总体策略和数据采信原则可为航天装备试验鉴定顶层设计、组织实施、数据分析和决策支持提供参考。     

A bayesian approach to evaluating military investments in product improvement and testing

Two issues of frequent importance in new product development are product improvement and reliability testing. A question often faced by the developer is: Should the product be distributed in its present state, or should it be improved further and/or tested before distribution? A more useful statement of the question might be: What levels of investment in further improvement and testing are economically permissible? Products for which this question is relevant may vary widely in type and intended use. This paper presents a model for determining these levels for one such product—an equipment modification procedure. The model presented makes use of present value analysis to compare cost streams and of Bayesian statistics to relate the costs to various outcomes under conditions of uncertainty. The model is applied to an actual military problem and a method is described for examining the sensitivity of the results to changes in the prior probabilities and discount rate.     

鱼雷寿命周期费用参数的灰色敏感性分析

鱼雷寿命周期费用受多种因素的影响,各因素对寿命周期费用的作用不同,有的作用大,有的作用小.在对鱼雷寿命周期费用建立模型时,需要分析哪些因素是影响寿命周期费用的主要因素,哪些因素是影响寿命周期费用的次要因素,即对寿命周期费用参数进行敏感性分析.利用灰色系统理论的灰色关联度对鱼雷寿命周期费用参数进行敏感性分析,可对这些参数按重要性进行分类, 有利于建立模型时对参量的选择.     

C4ISR体系结构工程概念研究

通过分析国内外C4ISR系统体系结构开发、研究中存在的问题,提出了C4ISR体系结构工程的设想,即采用工程的概念、原理、技术和方法,从技术和管理两方面研究如何更好地开发、维护C4ISR系统的体系结构.定义了C4ISR体系结构工程的相关概念,提出并详细介绍了体系结构的生命周期.     

Single‐commodity stochastic network design under demand and topological uncertainties with insufficient data

Stochastic network design is fundamental to transportation and logistic problems in practice, yet faces new modeling and computational challenges resulted from heterogeneous sources of uncertainties and their unknown distributions given limited data. In this article, we design arcs in a network to optimize the cost of single‐commodity flows under random demand and arc disruptions. We minimize the network design cost plus cost associated with network performance under uncertainty evaluated by two schemes. The first scheme restricts demand and arc capacities in budgeted uncertainty sets and minimizes the worst‐case cost of supply generation and network flows for any possible realizations. The second scheme generates a finite set of samples from statistical information (e.g., moments) of data and minimizes the expected cost of supplies and flows, for which we bound the worst‐case cost using budgeted uncertainty sets. We develop cutting‐plane algorithms for solving the mixed‐integer nonlinear programming reformulations of the problem under the two schemes. We compare the computational efficacy of different approaches and analyze the results by testing diverse instances of random and real‐world networks. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 154–173, 2017     

Easily computed approximations for (s,S) inventory system operating characteristics

The operating characteristics of (s,S) inventory systems are often difficult to compute, making systems design and sensitivity analysis tedious and expensive undertakings. This article presents a methodology for simplified sensitivity analysis, and derives approximate expressions for operating characteristics of a simple (s,S) inventory system. The operating characteristics under consideration are the expected values of total cost per period, holding cost per period, replenishment cost per period, backlog cost per period, and backlog frequency. The approximations are obtained by using least-squares regression to fit simple functions to the operating characteristics of a large number of inventory items with diverse parameter settings. Accuracy to within a few percent of actual values is typical for most approximations. Potential uses of the approximations are illustrated for several idealized design problems, including consolidating demand from several locations, and tradeoffs for increasing service or reducing replenishment delivery lead time.