多属性决策在防空作战部署方案评估中的应用

为适应防空作战新的作战任务,从空防对抗作战的复杂性、不确定性和人类思维的模糊性出发,对防空作战部署方案评估的目的进行了分析,在此基础上建立了防空作战部署方案评估指标体系.针对评估指标的多样性和不确定性,提出了基于属性值为区间数的多属性决策(MADM)评估方法,并详细阐述了区间数比较的可能度公式、区间数排序和综合评估过程,最后通过一个实例对防空作战部署方案评估的具体过程进行了论证.     

信息熵与TOPSIS装备保障力量部署方案优化

针对装备保障力量部署方案复杂性和模糊性特点,在分析装备保障力量部署的内容、影响因素及方案优化目的基础上,建立了装备保障力量部署方案评估指标体系,采用信息熵理论来确定评估指标的权重,并提出了基于熵权TOPS IS的装备保障力量部署方案优选方法,使装备保障力量部署方案决策更加科学合理,具有一定的实用性。     

基于灰色关联决策的地面防空部署方案

地面防空部署方案的评价是一个多属性决策问题。基于灰色关联决策理论,建立了地面防空部署方案的评价模型与优选算法。该方法能充分利用主客观信息,避免求取属性权重估计值的计算,并能反应指挥员对部署方案的偏好,使得部署方案的评价易于编程计算。     

逼近理想点法在防空兵战斗部署方案排序中的应用

针对指挥员就多个防空兵战斗部署方案难以取舍的问题,运用逼近理想点法进行排序。在分析影响防空兵战斗部署方案因素的基础上确定影响方案优劣的几个重要指标。根据现有的防空兵战斗部署方案,假设不可能存在的一个正理想方案和一个负理想方案,运用逼近理想点法,计算各个方案到理想方案的相对贴近度,得到贴近度最大的为最佳方案。通过实例分析对该方法进行了检验,可为指挥员定下决心提供参考。     

基于Memetic算法的要地防空兵力机动部署优化方法

兵力部署优化问题是防空作战筹划的重要研究内容之一。针对要地防空作战过程中的兵力机动调整部署问题,改进防区离散化方法得到部署方案集,将基于战场实时态势的部署方案对空防御效能作为优化目标,将机动部署过程中的机动距离作为约束,建立了防空兵力机动部署优化模型,并利用Memetic算法进行求解。仿真实验验证了优化模型的有效性和合理性,可为科学制定兵力机动部署方案提供参考。     

一种结合主客观评价的部署方案优选方法

地面防空部署方案的评价是一个多属性决策问题.结合主观评价和客观评价,建立了地面防空部署方案的评价模型与优选算法.该方法既融入了指挥员的主观意见,又避免了各评价指标之间的比较、评分,使得部署方案的评价优选易于编程计算,快捷方便,具有较好的实用价值.     

改进的混合蛙跳算法在雷达网部署中的应用

针对雷达组网优化部署的原则,建立了区域雷达组网优化部署的数学模型,提出了一种基于改进的蛙跳算法的雷达组网优化部署方法。在阐述了改进方法的基础上,与先前方法进行了对比分析。最后,通过计算机仿真试验进行了验证,结果表明:改进的混合蛙跳算法能够快速得到多种优化部署方案,且操作性强,能较好地应用于雷达组网优化。     

基于模糊综合评价法的装甲团城市市区进攻战斗部署方案优化研究

战斗部署的内容是决心方案的主体部分,战斗部署确定的合理与否,将会直接影响到战斗方案的质量。因此,准确的评估战斗部署方案,对提高作战指挥决策的科学性,保障指挥员定下正确、合理的战斗决心具有重要意义。论文根据战斗部署的定义和战斗部署的要求,建立了城市市区进攻战斗部署的评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定其权重,最后使用模糊综合评价法对战斗部署方案进行评估。     

基于模糊综合评价法的装甲团城市 市区进攻战斗部署方案优化研究

战斗部署的内容是决心方案的主体部分,战斗部署确定的合理与否,将会直接影响到战斗方案的质量。因此,准确的评估战斗部署方案,对提高作战指挥决策的科学性,保障指挥员定下正确、合理的战斗决心具有重要意义。论文根据战斗部署的定义和战斗部署的要求,建立了城市市区进攻战斗部署的评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定其权重,最后使用模糊综合评价法对战斗部署方案进行评估。     

雷达网优化部署仿真系统研究

雷达网优化部署仿真系统可以模拟雷达网的部署,自动地计算出雷达网各项战术指标,并能对雷达网的部署方案进行评估、调整、选优.主要描述了雷达网优化部署仿真系统的组成、其核心部分优化部署模块数学模型的建立及其理论依据、该数学模型优化算法的实现及其与其它优化方法的性能比较.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.