Nuclear deterrence and cyber warfare: coexistence or competition?

Nuclear deterrence and cyber war seem almost antithetical in their respective intellectual pedigrees. Nuclear weapons are unique in their ability to create mass destruction in a short time. Information or “cyber” weapons, at least for the most part, aim at sowing confusion or mass disruption instead of widespread physical destruction. Nevertheless, there are some intersections between cyber and nuclear matters, and these have the potential to become troublesome for the future of nuclear deterrence. For example, cyber attacks might complicate the management of a nuclear crisis. As well, information attacks on command-control and communications systems might lead to a mistaken nuclear launch based on false warnings, to erroneous interpretations of data or to panic on account of feared information blackout. It is not inconceivable that future nuclear strike planning will include a preliminary wave of cyber strikes or at least a more protracted “preparation of the battlefield” by roaming through enemy networks to plant malware or map vulnerabilities.     

Concept costing for defence projects: the problem and its solution

It is intrinsic to the nature of military competition that the unit acquisition costs of defence systems rise generation by generation. Traditional “bottom‐up” methods of cost‐estimating cannot meet the increasing demands for extensive studies of many options before commencing design and, while “top‐down” estimating techniques are an improvement, in particular by reducing the time required for preparing estimates, they also are inadequate to meet current requirements. A new method has been devised, therefore, further developing “top‐down” methods using Bayesian techniques to make best use of the available information, whether certain or uncertain, and its accuracy established by example.     

Toward a multi-stage information conversion model of the research and development process

Research and development activities in a business firm or government laboratory are portrayed as a multi-stage information generation and conversion process. A “basic research” phase generates opportunities, in the form of findings in a set of scientific disciplines, which are available for subsequent exploitation. It is assumed that increments to information in a subject area are stochastic, proportional to the amount of knowledge which already exists in the area, and have values which are randomly distributed. An “exploratory development” phase is viewed as a process of selecting a subset of alternative research opportunities, improving each opportunity in the direction of its applications, estimating the value of the improved opportunity and using these estimates to choose the exploratory development results to be implemented in engineering development. The “engineering development” phase makes the value of exploratory results realizable without changing value or risk. Engineering development costs are assumed to increase as value increases. If exploratory development is not successful, additional costs in engineering development must be incurred to bring the design up to a minimum desirable level. The model is intended as a step toward formulating and analyzing problems in management planning and control of the several interrelated stages of the research and development process.     

Advancing “Defence-in-depth”: intelligence and systems dynamics

This article aims to encourage the fostering of more systems thinking, and its greater exploitation, within the domain of contemporary intelligence. With particular focus on “micro systems thinking” and with reference to key intelligence processes, such as intelligence analysis, the utility of many systems dynamics within the intelligence context seeks to be further revealed. Through their greater collective harnessing, including up to “System of Systems” (“SoS”) dynamics, and promoting all that they can offer, more sophisticated overarching operational-to-strategic/policy “ends,” notably that of “defence-in-depth,” can be viably further advanced in a sustainable manner into the future. Arguably, a much-needed transformative impact on contemporary intelligence can also be increasingly realised through comprehensively engaging in and with more systems and SoS thinking. Aiding civil protection tasks, crisis management, emergency planners, and civil contingency practitioners likewise gain.     

“Effing” the military: a political misunderstanding of management

The use of commercial business management techniques is widespread in all government departments, including the Ministry of Defence. This article examines the use of popular management techniques in the Armed Forces and argues that their application is misplaced. It looks at what the “effs” – “efficiency” and “effectiveness” – mean in the business world and to the Armed Forces. It compares the definitions both in business and the Armed Forces and finds that there are few, if any, situations where the same measurements can be applied. Whilst many management techniques are suited for business, the function of the Armed Forces and its output cannot be measured in the same way, complicated by the different metrics of “efficiency” in peace and in war. This difference may not be clearly understood by some politicians, or indeed by some senior military personnel. Using examples from some of the most popular management techniques such as “Lean” and “Agile” it is possible to see that their use might actually diminish the capabilities of the Armed Forces when it comes to performing their principal role – the use of force to achieve political objectives.     

Optimal selection with alternative information

This article examines the problem of optimally selecting from several unknown rewards when there are given alternative, costly sources of information. The optimal rule, indicating the information to be purchased and the reward to be selected, is specified as a function of the decision maker's prior probabilities regarding the value of each alternative. The rule is surprisingly complex, balancing prior beliefs, the “informativeness” of the relevant information system, and the cost of acquiring information.     

Missile systems: “Flexible modularity” and incremental technological change in military production∗

It is often stated that technological change in the military field is characterised by the introduction of radical innovations rather than by incremental processes of technological change. This article illustrates the diversity of military innovation by arguing that technological change in missiles systems is dominated by incremental change. While some large weapons platforms display the design rigidities normally associated with complex systems, missiles are characterised by “flexible modularity”. Flexible modularity facilitates the continuous introduction of upgrades, and makes missile systems amenable to gradual technological change. Besides, it has significant implications for the future role of missile systems, and poses special problems for missile disarmament and technology control initiatives.     

大数据在信息作战指挥决策中的运用

针对信息作战指挥决策中大数据的运用问题，通过对大数据的海量信息检索能力、交叉复现的分析能力、“全信息”运算能力、智能决策执行能力的研究，提出了大数据为其提供按需订制的情报信息、多元多维的决策视角、动态实时的决策支持、智能自主的决策方式的观点，初步探索了大数据在信息作战指挥决策中的运用，对将大数据引入信息作战指挥决策具有十分重要的指导意义。     

Requirements of an “optimizer” for computer simulations

Computer simulation has many advantages. However, one major disadvantage is that, in all too many cases, the attempt to use computer simulation to find an optimum solution to a problem rapidly degenerates into a trial-and-error process. Techniques for overcoming this disadvantage, i. e., for making optimization and computer simulation more compatible, are applicable at two points in the development of the overall computer simulation. Techniques which are used within actual construction of the mathematical models comprising the simulation will be labeled as internal methods, while those which are used after the simulation has been completely developed will be termed external methods Because external methods appear to offer the largest potential payoff, discussion is restricted to these methods, which are essentially search techniques. In addition, the development of an “Optimizer” computer program based on these techniques is suggested Although drawbacks to the use of search techniques in the computer simulation framework exist, these techniques do offer potential for “optimization.” The modification of these techniques to satisfy the requirements of an “Optimizer” is discussed.     

U.S. SPACE WEAPONS

Under the administration of President George W. Bush, Pentagon rhetoric has increasingly articulated a more robust vision of space as a future battlefield. This analysis details some of the ongoing spending for research and development programs identified in current U.S. Air Force, Missile Defense Agency (MDA), and Defense Advanced Research and Planning Agency (DARPA) planning and budget documents related to “space control” and “space force projection.” This analysis finds that current support for “space superiority” and “space control” systems remains largely rhetorical—with little actual budgetary support. Unclassified technology development programs included in the six-year Future Years Defense Plan are a decade or more away from deployment. Programs related to offensive counterspace, space-based missile defense interceptors, and space-based strike total slightly less than $300 million in FY 2006 funding. We conclude significantly higher expenditures in research and development would be required to develop and deploy killer micro satellites, space-based missile defense interceptors, and military space planes.     

Strategic capacity decision‐making in a stochastic manufacturing environment using real‐time approximate dynamic programming

In this study, we illustrate a real‐time approximate dynamic programming (RTADP) method for solving multistage capacity decision problems in a stochastic manufacturing environment, by using an exemplary three‐stage manufacturing system with recycle. The system is a moderate size queuing network, which experiences stochastic variations in demand and product yield. The dynamic capacity decision problem is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP). The proposed RTADP method starts with a set of heuristics and learns a superior quality solution by interacting with the stochastic system via simulation. The curse‐of‐dimensionality associated with DP methods is alleviated by the adoption of several notions including “evolving set of relevant states,” for which the value function table is built and updated, “adaptive action set” for keeping track of attractive action candidates, and “nonparametric k nearest neighbor averager” for value function approximation. The performance of the learned solution is evaluated against (1) an “ideal” solution derived using a mixed integer programming (MIP) formulation, which assumes full knowledge of future realized values of the stochastic variables (2) a myopic heuristic solution, and (3) a sample path based rolling horizon MIP solution. The policy learned through the RTADP method turned out to be superior to polices of 2 and 3. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2010     

决策系统的信息机理

本文从信息与决策的角度,分析了决策系统信息特性的几个侧面,为研究信息对决策系统的作用机理做了一些基础性的定量工作。     

Understanding contemporary conflicts in Africa: a state of affairs and current knowledge

Understanding contemporary conflicts in Africa remains directly dependent on the approaches employed to decipher or interpret them. This article first examines the bias of conventional approaches (inherited from the Cold War) and then those of a series of supposedly “newer” approaches. Relying primarily on West African examples, it offers a brief overview of current knowledge, issues, and avenues for research, based on three apparent characteristics of a “new generation” of conflicts: the regionalization of wars, the privatization of violence and security, and the recourse to extreme forms of brutality. These three major trends bear witness to a rapid transformation of war and armed violence over the past 20 years, but they are not sufficient to establish a radical historical break between “old” and “new” conflicts in Africa. By concealing elements of continuity a priori, the most influential “new” approaches actually make it impossible to ponder their own limits. To that end, fashionability and struggles for influence within the Africanist field play a major role in perpetuating dominant, sensationalistic, or simplistic (and invariably incorrect) portrayals of African conflicts.     

Dynamic impact protective body armour: A comprehensive appraisal on panel engineering design and its prospective materials

Personal body armour is one of the most important pieces of equipment to protect human beings from various critical and fatal injuries. In today’s modern world, various organizations including law enforcement and security service have made it mandatory for their personnel to wear personal protection system while on field duty. However, the systems should comprise an improved ballistic performance, light-weighted, flexible as well as comfortable panel not only to be accepted with a wider range but also for effective performances of the consumer. Generally, the overall performances of the protective body armour could be affected by various parameters including armour design techniques, type of materials used and finishing of the panels. The current paper aims to critically review state-of-art for armour panel design techniques and the different perspective body armour materials. The paper starts by discussing the different body armour and its category. Later, the different states of technology for armour panel design (mostly for women), its problems and the possible solutions will be cited. Later, the commonly used different polymeric fibrous and the future possible advanced materials including carbon nanotube (CNT), Graphene CNT and shear thickening fluids (STFs) treated materials for developing the reinforced body armour panel will be discussed. The authors believe that this paper will enlighten useful guidelines and procedures about the different panel design techniques and current and promising future materials for researchers, designers, engineers and manufacturers working on the impact resistance body armour field.     

The reliability of multicomponent systems subject to cannibalization

A reliability model for multicomponent multistate systems is presented. This is a generalization of a model previously studied by Hirsch, Meisner, and Boll. In the earlier model, when a failure occurs for which no replacement spare is available, the locations using the same type of part as that having failed are “cannibalized” so as to allocate the shortages to locations where they are least detrimental to system performance. Here, we permit certain restrictions to be imposed upon the cannibalization procedure, and develop effective techniques for relating the probability laws governing the level of system performance to the system structure, cannibalization policy, kit of spare parts, and part reliabilities.     

基于SOA的网络化维修保障信息系统体系结构研究

随着信息技术的迅猛发展,网络化维修模式将会成为未来武器装备维修模式变革的潮流,而面向服务的体系架构即SOA(Service-Oriented Architecture),可以有效地解决传统的维修信息系统中所面临的"信息孤岛"和"功能孤岛"的问题,是实现网络化维修保障的重要基础之一。分析介绍面向服务架构SOA的概念、体系架构、技术实现,并结合网络化维修保障的具体需求,提出了一个基于SOA的网络化维修保障体系框架。     

计算机网络战防御技术分析

针对未来信息化战争中计算机网络易受攻击的问题,探讨了网络战防御体系结构,分析了防御体系各组成部分间关系和整个体系的管理模式;依照防御体系重点,对主要的防御技术进行了归纳和描述;指出对众多的网络防御技术采用集成和综合运用的意义,介绍了几种主要的系统集成方式。     

“微时代”下大学生思想教育研究

在大量数据充斥的“微时代”，各个领域的信息以多样化的方式传播到大学生群体中，碎片化的信息为原有高校思想教育带来了机遇和挑战。本文通过“微时代”对大学生思想教育的影响进行总结，调查、归纳其影响产生的原因。“微时代”对现代大学生思想教育的影响具有正、负两面，而究其产生的原因则是大学生对网络的频繁使用及“微时代”信息的隐蔽性。根据这些原因，本文对现在的大学生思想教育工作进行总结，并对未来的教育提出建议。     

Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimates of operational readiness and reliability in a two-state system

This paper obtains the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimates of two indices of performance of a system which alternates between two states “up” or “down” in accordance with a Markov process. The two indices are (1) operational readiness, which measures the probability that the system will be up when needed; and (2) operational reliability, which measures the probability that the system will be up during the entire time of need. For the purpose of obtaining these estimates, two types of observations are considered: (a) those which reveal only the state of system at isolated time-points, and (b) those which continuously record the duration of the “up” and “down” times of the system.     

Sensitivity curves for effective project management

A key problem in project management is to decide which activities are the most important to manage and how best to manage them. A considerable amount of literature has been devoted to assigning “importance” measures to activities to help with this important task. When activity times are modeled as random variables, these activity importance measures are more complex and difficult to use. A key problem with all existing measures is that they summarize the importance in a single number. The result is that it is difficult for managers to determine a range of times for an activity that might be acceptable or unacceptable. In this paper, we develop sensitivity curves that display the most useful measures of project performance (in terms of schedule) as a function of an activity's time. The structure of the networks allows us to efficiently estimate these curves for all desired activities, all desired time ranges, and all desired measures in a single set of simulation runs. The resulting curves provide insights that are not available when considering summarized measures alone. Chief among these insights is the ability to identify an acceptable range of times for an activity that will not lead to negative scheduling consequences. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 481–497, 2003