基于模糊层次分析法的面粉厂粉尘爆炸危险性评价

根据面粉企业生产特点，应用层次分析法的原理，建立了粉尘爆炸危险性评价的层次结构模型及判断矩阵，从而确定影响粉尘爆炸事故发生的相关因素重要性排序；然后再运用模糊综合评价方法对粉尘爆炸危险性进行评价，最终确定面粉厂的安全状况。实例研究表明：该方法具有较好的可操作性，对预防面粉企业发生粉尘爆炸事故提供了一种有益的思路。     

粉尘爆炸事故预防及其扑救对策研究

可燃粉尘爆炸是危害人类生产生活的一类主要事故。要有效预防粉尘爆炸事故造成的危害，准确掌握其爆炸原理，研究其爆炸特性是非常必要的。探讨了粉尘爆炸的基本特征，研究了粉尘爆炸的条件和机理及影响粉尘爆炸的因素。详细论述了粉尘爆炸火灾的特点及其危害。研究了预防粉尘爆炸及降低粉尘爆炸破坏作用的对策，并指出了在灭火战斗中应注意的问题。     

油库储油区燃烧爆炸事故树分析

针对油库储油区安全管理点多面广的特点,分析储油区燃烧爆炸事故的相关影响因素和条件,建立完善的事故树模型。通过定性分析理清燃烧爆炸事故与基本事件之间的逻辑关系,定量分析获得各项基本事件的结构重要度排序,找出储油区存在燃烧爆炸隐患的重点部位,制订科学合理的安全信息监控点设置策略,为油库安全管理手段向信息化迈进提供决策依据。     

石油化工企业火灾爆炸事故分析

石油化工企业的火灾爆炸事故易造成重大损失和人员伤亡。为避免重复性火灾爆炸事故的发生,对既往的火灾爆炸事故进行分析,并提出预防对策是很有必要的。 一、石油化工企业火灾爆炸事故的基本     

基于层次聚类法的化工装置火灾爆炸灾害事故模式分析

化工装置灾害事故模式的研究,有益于从源头上做好灾害事故的预防工作。在介绍传统事故模式分析方法的基础上,提出了基于层次聚类法的化工装置火灾爆炸灾害事故模式分析方法,并对近20年100起相关灾害事故案例进行了模式分析研究。     

化工火灾引发环境污染的分析及预防——由吉林石化分公司爆炸火灾引发的思考

介绍了中石油吉林石化分公司双苯厂“11·13”爆炸事故和松花江水污染事件的基本情况。分析了这起典型污染事件的成因，提出预防火灾爆炸事故造成环境污染的对策。     

二氧化碳灭火系统安全性简探

氧化碳灭火装置,具有价格便宜,不会腐蚀金属等特点,而广泛用于一般不能用水扑救的火灾。但是,高压液态二氧化碳高速释放将会产生强烈的静电带电现象,在易燃易爆场合有可能酿成静电火灾。当然,静电引爆的条件是很苛刻的,必须同时具备以下条件：①环境存在可燃物（气体、蒸气或粉尘）,且其浓度处于爆炸极限内;②静电电位足够高,具有击穿周围介质的放电条件,且放电能量大于或等于可燃物的最小点火能量。才能发生静电引燃事故。虽然上述爆炸的例子并不多见,但手提式灭火器在排空后,对人体电击的例子不算少,在干燥地区更是频繁。一…     

烟花爆竹存放使用中的消防安全问题研究

根据烟花爆竹独有的组成成分的火灾危险性，从烟花爆竹存放场所的硬件条件、从业人员的素质、消防设施的设置及产品的燃放等方面。分析了烟花爆竹在存放和使用过程中发生火灾爆炸事故的原因，针对性地提出了预防类似火灾爆炸事故的措施。     

谈化工设备检修中的防火防爆

因设备检修引发的火灾爆炸事故在化工企业发生的事故中占有一定的比例,文章通过分析检修中引起火灾爆炸事故的原因,对检修中的动火、动土、进入设备、登高等作业提出了相应的安全对策.     

危险品仓库火灾爆炸原因及预防对策

凡具有爆炸、易燃、毒害、腐蚀、放射性等危险性质,且在运输、装卸、生产、使用、储存、保管过程中,于一定条件下能引起燃烧、爆炸,导致人身伤亡和财产损失等事故的物品,统称为化学危险物品。由化学危险物品引起的火灾爆炸事故所造成的生命财产损失是极其严重的。因此,分析危险品仓库火灾爆炸事故原因,探讨其预防对策对于安全贮存危险品是十分必要的。     

Theoretical and numerical investigations on the headspace of cartridge cases considering axial deformation and movement

The cartridge case headspace is the axial clearance between the cartridge and bolt of an automatic weapon, and influences the reliability and security of the weapon. Accordingly, theoretical and numerical studies were conducted to analyze the dynamic response of cartridge cases during internal impact considering the initial radial clearances between the cartridge case and chamber. A theoretical model was proposed to predict the cartridge case headspace considering both the deformation and movement of the cartridge case and confirmed by the results of nonlinear finite element simulations. The differences between the results of the conventional static model and the dynamic model were then comprehensively evaluated. The effects of the angle between the cartridge and chamber, the cartridge case material, and the internal impact pressure on the predicted headspace value were also analyzed. The dynamic response of the cartridge case predicted by the dynamic model was more accurate than that predicted by the conventional static model. The internal impact pressure, pressure change rate, and cartridge material were all found to affect the predicted headspace.     

Numerical study on the case effect of a bomb air explosion

When considering the bomb explosion damage effect, the air shock wave and high-speed fragments of the bomb case are two major threats. In experiments, the air shock wave was studied by the bare ex-plosives superseding the real cased bomb; in contrast, the bomb case influence was ignored to reduce risk. The air explosion simulations of the MK84 warhead with and without the case were conducted. The numerical simulation results showed that the bomb case significantly influenced the shock wave generated by the bomb: the spatial distribution of shock wave in the near field changed, and the peak value of shock wave was reduced. Breakage of the case and kinetic energy of the fragmentation consumed 3 and 38% of the explosion energy, respectively. The increasing factors of the peak over-pressure induced by the bare explosive on the ground and in the air were 1.43-3.04 and 1.37-1.57, respectively. Four typical stages of case breakage were defined. The mass distribution of the fragments follows the Mott distribution. The initial velocity distribution of the fragments agreed well with the Gurney equation.     

Natural convection effects on TNT solidification inside a shaped charge mold

High Explosive Anti-Tank (HEAT) warheads and ammunitions are frequently produced by explosive casting inside an axis-symmetric mold with an inverted conical geometry in the basis. In order to prevent manufacturing defects, the solidification process must be controlled. In this study, a dimensionless solidification model has been proposed to investigate the heat transfer considering the natural convection inside the liquid explosive and the numerical simulations were performed by using COMSOL Multiphysics and Modeling Software, employing trinitrotoluene (TNT) thermophysical properties. The effect of three different boundary conditions on the top of the mold have been evaluated: convection, adiabatic and isothermal. It has been observed that solidification process was faster for convection case and slower for isothermal case, while an intermediary total solidification time value was found for adiabatic case. Moreover, liquid explosive was completely surrounded by solid explosive during the solidification process for convection case and also for adiabatic case through the end of the process. Otherwise, it was not observed for isothermal case. The natural convection effects promoted a vortex inside the liquid explosive, accelerating the heat transfer process. It has been concluded that isothermal mold top boundary condition should be preferred to prevent manufacturing defects, avoiding high thermal stress.     

机电系统故障—时间应力的关联分析技术研究

时间应力测量装置技术是一种测量和存储各种应力数据以及对这些数据进行挖掘与分析的技术。简要介绍了时间应力的基本概念及其研究应用的发展历程。在此基础上,提出了基于故障模式、影响及应力分析(FMESA)的时间应力与机电系统故障的定性关联分析方法和基于多元logistic回归的定量关联分析方法。最后,以某型航空地平仪为对象进行了案例研究。案例分析结果表明,文中提出的时间应力与机电系统故障的关联分析方法能分析出影响系统性能的关键应力因素,为机电系统的故障诊断及故障预测提供基础。     

固体火箭发动机复合材料壳体裙黏接性能分析

采用数值计算方法研究复合材料壳体裙连接结构的黏接性能。通过建立纤维缠绕壳体的有限元模型,采用内聚力模型定义裙黏接面的接触关系,引入黏接界面的损伤失效准则,模拟黏接界面的脱黏行为,以此预测裙连接结构的极限承载。同时,研究壳体的轴向和环向应变及黏接面上的剪应力分布情况,以及弹性层的弹性模量与黏接长度对黏接性能的影响。数值算例表明,计算结果与实验数据相吻合,验证了该方法的正确性。所提方法可用于裙连接结构的优化设计中。     

基于案例的推理在舰船维修费预测中的应用

针对市场经济条件下舰船维修费预测不确定性越来越大的问题,提出了一种基于案例推理的舰船维修费预测模型。首先,利用修船厂的历史数据,采用特征向量表示法构建舰船维修费案例库;其次,为提高案例检索效率,采用组合模糊聚类算法建立舰船维修费案例的分类索引结构,并提出基于最近邻法的两步检索策略检索相似案例;最后,采用加权平均法对相似案例进行修改以获取预测值,同时采用主动学习策略保存当前案例并更新案例库。实例仿真结果表明:与传统舰船维修费预测模型相比,基于案例的推理模型具有更高的预测精度,所提模型是有效的。     

大气湍流引起的相位起伏对相干态量子雷达相位估计的影响

基于马赫曾德干涉仪模型并采用相位扩散主方程描述大气相位起伏效应对量子雷达的影响,给出了光场在相位扩散通道的演化过程,详细分析了大气相位起伏对相干态宇称探测量子雷达相位估计分辨率和最佳灵敏度的影响,并计算了大气相位起伏下相位估计灵敏度的Cramer-Rao极限。研究发现:相位起伏对于分辨率的影响可通过增加单个脉冲平均光子数来消除。在强相位起伏情况下,宇称探测得到最佳灵敏度会严重偏离散粒噪声极限,但是在弱相位起伏情况下,通过与Cramer-Rao极限的对比,发现宇称探测是一种准最佳探测方案。     

关于计量经济学案例教学的探讨

计量经济学包含理论教学、实验教学、案例教学三个教学环节,案例教学作为联系理论教学与实验教学的桥梁与纽带,在计量经济学教学中起着重要的作用。但目前计量经济学案例教学仍存在对案例教学法认识不够、案例资源匮乏、案例选择使用不当等问题。针对这些问题,本文提出了正确处理理论教学与案例教学关系、编撰经典案例集、准确选择使用案例等一些具体的改革措施与建议,以提高计量经济学教学效果。     

The stochastic single resource service‐provision problem

The service‐provision problem described in this paper comes from an application of distributed processing in telecommunications networks. The objective is to maximize a service provider's profit from offering computational‐based services to customers. The service provider has limited capacity and must choose which of a set of software applications he would like to offer. This can be done dynamically, taking into consideration that demand for the different services is uncertain. The problem is examined in the framework of stochastic integer programming. Approximations and complexity are examined for the case when demand is described by a discrete probability distribution. For the deterministic counterpart, a fully polynomial approximation scheme is known 2 . We show that introduction of stochasticity makes the problem strongly NP‐hard, implying that the existence of such a scheme for the stochastic problem is highly unlikely. For the general case a heuristic with a worst‐case performance ratio that increases in the number of scenarios is presented. Restricting the class of problem instances in a way that many reasonable practical problem instances satisfy allows for the derivation of a heuristic with a constant worst‐case performance ratio. Worst‐case performance analysis of approximation algorithms is classical in the field of combinatorial optimization, but in stochastic programming the authors are not aware of any previous results in this direction. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

复杂设备诊断与维修中基于改进最近相邻法和线索的案例检索

基于案例推理系统的强大功能,来源于它能够从案例库中迅速地检索到与当前新问题“相似”的案例,而这种相似性的比较主要依赖于如何建立问题的特征索引。结合目前三种主要的案例索引技术：最近相邻法（Nearest－neighbor）、归纳法和知识索引法,提出了改进最近相邻法的案例索引技术;并以设备故障诊断与维修为背景,给出了一种基于改进最近相邻法的线索推理算法。