一种基于层次分析法的舰炮武器系统选型综合评价模型

针对舰炮武器系统选型配置决策中众多制约因素难以平衡兼顾的难题,本文基于层次分析法,综合了作战效能、全寿命周期费用、研制周期、适装性、技术可行性和发展潜力等多变量因素,提出并建立了一套综合优化舰炮武器系统选型配置方案的方法和模型,实现了舰炮武器系统选型配置问题的优化决策,最后以大口径主炮武器系统发展选型为例,给出了模型的应用实例。     

排队论方法在评估防空武器系统能力方面的应用

针对当前评估舰炮武器系统作战效能的局限性,运用排队理论,建立评估单舰防空武器系统对持续入侵空中目标负荷能力的数学模型,分析了武器配置、火力单元工作性能对系统处理多批次空中目标能力的影响.针对作战平台的安全性,提出了评估舰炮武器系统功能的参数模型,对多种情况下的系统防空能力做出理论上的评价.最后,基于最一般情况给出舰炮武器系统防空作战中的几种可行配置方案.     

小口径舰炮武器系统作战效能评估模型研究

通过对小口径舰炮武器系统的分析,建立小口径舰炮武器系统作战效能评估指标体系,得到基于"串/并联"模型框架的作战效能评估A.D.C扩展模型E=A.D.C.S.通过某型小口径舰炮武器系统的实例计算验证了模型的正确性,并得出分析结论.     

层次分析法在武器系统效能建模中的应用

在武器系统效能评估中 ,武器系统的战技指标 ,是评估武器系统效能的重要因素。本文利用层次分析法和矩阵摄动方法 ,对武器系统的战技指标进行分析 ,建立了武器系统效能能力指数模型 ,并把可靠性和维修性应用于效能计算之中。由此建立了武器系统效能模型并进行了评估     

近程反导舰炮武器系统“综合体”的可靠性—效能评估模型

本文对典型的近程反导舰炮武器系统做了任务状态划分和可靠性分析,建立了系统执行任务过程中的可靠性—效能评估模型。     

基于WindowsXP+RTX的模拟测试系统开发

采用建模仿真技术、半实物仿真技术和WindowsXP+RTX技术开发研制的模拟测试系统,用于在复杂试验条件下,对舰炮武器系统及组成设备进行检验评估,是一种充分检验舰炮武器系统性能的技术途径和试验方法,目前该系统已成功应用于舰炮武器系统工程实践中。     

弹炮结合武器系统末端反导毁伤评估方法研究

以反舰导弹在弹炮结合武器系统防御末端舰炮拦截情况下的毁伤评估为研究方向,提出了一种在小口径舰炮作用下,基于命中能力及命中后毁伤效能的反舰导弹毁伤评估方法。从统计学角度分析了弹丸从发射到命中后毁伤过程,建立了相应模型并进行了仿真分析。本研究对反舰导弹在近程反导武器系统作用下的易损性评估提供了一种新的研究思路。     

基于模糊综合评价模型的武器研制技术风险分析*

针对舰炮武器系统研制的技术特点和风险分布特征,提出了基于模糊综合评价模型的技术风险分析方法,并结合具体风险因素分析了舰炮武器系统研制技术风险评估的指标和准则。介绍了某型大口径舰炮系统的研制风险分析实例,给出了该舰炮系统研制技术风险的评估结果,验证了该方法的可靠性和有效性。     

舰炮武器系统仿真试验可信性评估方法

在介绍舰炮武器系统半实物仿真原理及系统组成的基础上,深入探讨了仿真试验结果可信性问题、仿真模型校核、验证与确认(VVA)的层次、仿真模型评估方法;介绍了基于最大熵谱估计的可信性评估定量分析方法;给出了仿真试验静、动态数据的验证方法以及仿真结果静、动态精度的检验方法;最后,以某型舰炮武器系统定型试验雷达通道数据验证了以上所述方法的有效性,并展望了可信性分析方法的发展方向。     

基于辅助决策系统舰炮防空火力分配模型

从系统工程的角度出发,把舰炮武器系统防空火力分配问题放在舰艇综合防空体系中来系统讨论。针对舰艇防空作战指挥辅助决策系统对火力分配模型的需求,结合舰炮武器系统的性能特点,建立了面向辅助决策系统的舰炮武器系统防空火力分配模型。最后用仿真检验的方法对模型的正确性进行了验证。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.