基于协商的Agent资源冲突消解算法研究

针对分布式规划系统中Agent计划的资源冲突问题,研究了资源冲突的分类;基于Agent协商理论,从资源最优配置的角度,论证了最优的协商策略,提出了可重复利用的不可分享型资源的冲突消解算法,较好地解决了Agent分布式规划中出现的一类资源冲突问题。算例表明,给出的冲突消解算法是有效的。     

基于专家系统的弹道导弹目标识别方法

传统Dempster-Shafer(D-S)算法及其改进算法中,一般将冲突证据与不冲突证据统一融合,无论融合过程中冲突证据所占权重多小,这都将降低融合效率。针对这个问题,引入专家系统理论,面向信息融合中证据冲突的问题,将冲突证据与无冲突证据分组,构建了基于专家信任度的弹道导弹目标识别模型和专家知识库模型,从工程上设计了弹道导弹目标识别专家知识库系统,提出了两种专家知识权重确立方法,并通过实例以及仿真,验证了算法的可行性。     

一种基于当前统计模型的模糊交互多模型算法

研究了模糊交互多模型算法(FIMM)和基于当前统计模型(CS)的自适应滤波算法,提出了一种基于当前统计模型的模糊交互多模型算法(CSFIMM)。该算法克服了模糊交互多模型算法精度较低和当前统计模型自适应滤波器方差调整有限的缺点。通过仿真,对所提出的算法和交互多模型(IMM)算法以及FIMM算法在估计精度和计算量两个方面进行了比较。     

Soar在水面舰艇CGF防空决策行为模型构建中的应用

计算机生成兵力(CGF)的行为模型研究一直是人工智能技术应用于军事仿真的一个重要研究内容。基于综合认知架构Soar设计并实现了水面舰艇CGF的自动防空决策行为模型,并在海战CGF系统中实现了该模型,应用结果表名Soar在构建CGF行为模型的有效性和可行性。     

一种改进的保障信息融合模型

针对D-S证据理论难以处理高冲突证据信息,而DSmT理论融合效率不高的问题,在分析D-S证据理论和DSmT理论优缺点的基础上,提出将两种算法组合使用的思想,并据此设计了保障信息融合模型。模型以证据信息间的冲突程度为依据,实现了融合算法的自动选择。仿真验证表明,混合模型在有效实现高冲突证据融合的同时,兼顾了融合算法的效率,具有较好的工程应用前景。     

编队分布式交互仿真体系的实现与评估－海军雷达干扰检测与解算的研究例案

本文是美国田纳西州技术大学计算机科学系和机械制造研究中心、软件自动化和智能实验室在1999年的国际计算机仿真会议上发表的论文.文章提出一个两级体系结构,用于实现海军雷达设备的干扰检测和频率分配在分布式仿真环境中的实现.介绍了目前的实现情况和所取得的结果以及对三种算法的性能分析,这三种解干扰的算法是本地自主算法、主从算法和基于协商的算法.本地自主算法在十分混杂的环境中很有用,主从算法用于确定性态势,而基于协商的算法则是界于这两种极端态势之间的恰当选择.     

基于影响图方法的信息战模型

由于粒子滤波的算法原理,其计算量很大。研究了针对机动目标的交互式多模型粒子滤波器(IMMPF)算法和多速率交互式多模型(MRIMM)算法,提出了多速率交互式多模型粒子滤波器(MRIMMPF)算法。该算法是在交互式多模型粒子滤波器(IMMPF)的基础上引入多速率技术,期望在保持IMMPF的性能同时能够减少因为粒子滤波带来的计算量;最后通过和一般基于EKF的IMM算法、IMMPF算法的比较,验证了该算法的有效性。     

多速率交互式多模型粒子滤波研究

由于粒子滤波的算法原理,其计算量很大.研究了针对机动目标的交互式多模型粒子滤波器(IMMPF)算法和多速率交互式多模型(MRIMM)算法,提出了多速率交互式多模型粒子滤波器(MRIMMPF)算法.该算法是在交互式多模型粒子滤波器(IMMPF)的基础上引入多速率技术,期望在保持IMMPF的性能同时能够减少因为粒子滤波带来的计算量;最后通过和一搬基于EKF的IMM算法、IMMPF算法的比较,验证了该算法的有效性.     

一种用于SpaceWire网络的混合路由机制设计*

针对星上系统总线多元性导致的星载网络接口和协议不能标准化的发展瓶颈,本文基于SpaceWire总线协议,通过将静态路由(时间触发)与动态路由(事件触发)机制结合,实现了控制数据和载荷数据共用网络。静态路由完全遵循SpaceWire-D协议,在保证确定性传输的同时,通过启发式调度算法首次实现了多时间窗并行调度,并提出利用最大公约数法设计时间窗,以提高网络吞吐量；动态路由通过对随机事件和载荷数据分配优先级,实现传输路径冲突时对紧急任务的优先处理。最后在OPENT中搭建网络系统仿真模型,对所提出的路由机制进行了仿真。实验结果表明,静态路由时段网络吞吐量较现有调度算法有明显提高,动态路由实现了紧急事件优先传输。     

SpaceWire网络混合路由机制设计

针对星上系统总线多元性导致的星载网络接口和协议不能标准化的发展瓶颈,基于SpaceWire总线协议,通过将静态路由(时间触发)与动态路由(事件触发)机制结合,实现了控制数据和载荷数据共用网络。静态路由完全遵循SpaceWire-D协议,在保证确定性传输的同时,通过启发式调度算法首次实现了多时间窗并行调度,并提出利用最大公约数法设计时间窗,以提高网络吞吐量;动态路由通过对随机事件和载荷数据分配优先级,实现传输路径冲突时对紧急任务的优先处理。在OPENT中搭建网络系统仿真模型,对所提出的路由机制进行了仿真。实验结果表明,静态路由时段网络吞吐量较现有调度算法有明显提高,动态路由实现了紧急事件优先传输。     

浅析武警制暴谈判用语的语言特点

武警制暴谈判,是舆论战、法律战、心理战的结合。研究、探讨制暴谈判用语的语音、语义、语用等特点并巧妙运用谈判用语,对武警部队圆满完成制暴处突任务,维护公共安全和社会稳定,具有非常积极的意义。     

装备采办中的讨价还价博弈模型

竞争性谈判是一种重要的武器装备采办方式，军方与承包商之间的谈判是一个重复博弈过程，双方谈判的本质是讨价还价。分析了轮流出价的讨价还价模型，对轮流出价博弈的子博弈精炼均衡进行了论述；在轮流出价模型的基础上建立了同时出价的讨价还价模型，并对2种模型的特点进行了分析；通过案例对2个模型的均衡结果进行了对比。分析结果显示：同时出价的讨价还价模型更能有效解决实际问题，更具有现实意义。     

PEACE PROCESSES AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

Conflict resolution processes must meet certain prerequisites and conditions. Unless the warring parties or the mediators meet, it will be difficult to find lasting and just solutions to the conflicts in the Horn (Djibouti, Eritrea and Ethiopia, and Somalia). Most of these conflicts have ethnic or religious components and also have a lot do with the nature of the government institutions and the power distribution among the communities within these states. Identifying the main causes of the conflict and the issues involved in each country is a very necessary first step toward peace. Secondly, conditions have to be identified that would make the current peace agreements work. This includes identifying the specific problems faced by the parties involved; ascertaining the validity of the mechanisms through which the problems will be overcome; and planning how the agreements will be maintained. The knowledge that mediators have about the conflict is often as important as the actual meeting of parties at the negotiation table. This article also evaluates the peace initiatives underway in the Horn and attempts to identify the apparent reasons that prevented their implementation.     

Predators and Peace: Explaining the Failure of the Pakistani Conflict Settlement Process in 2013-4

ABSTRACT

Did US drone strikes cause the unravelling of the Pakistani conflict settlement process between the government and the TTP in 2013-14? In answering this question, we present strong, fieldwork-based evidence that the effects of leadership decapitation, civilian casualties, and loss of legitimacy and credibility as a negotiation partner by both the government and the TTP interacted in the context of specific social, political and cultural characteristics of a tribal society. We find that drone strikes ‘produced’ some of these factors, but not all, which allows us to conclude with four concrete policy recommendations for rethinking the use of drones.     

Violent vs. Non-Violent Struggle: Investigating the Impact of Frames on Movement Strategies in Yemen

Why do some opposition movements escalate into armed conflict while others abide non-violently under very similar conditions? In order to account for this variance, the article proposes to transcend the limitations of existing structural theories within civil war studies by including a framing perspective. It accentuates and elucidates the agency component and the interactive dynamics of the construction and negotiation of meaning, which remain a ‘black box’ in current models. In a comparative study of two movements in Yemen, the article identifies and describes the respective collective action frames, establishes why and how strategic movement actors construct them in their specific particularity, and relates this to the question of why constituents take certain forms of action. The findings assert the theoretical contribution of an integrative approach.     

(Re-)emergent orders: understanding the negotiation(s) of rebel governance

Abstract

The concept of order is often neglected in the study of conflict – seemingly such a ‘disordering’ process. With the recent increase in the examination of rebel governance however, bringing order back into our understanding of rebel and insurgent groups has much to offer in exploring the everyday politics which connect authorities, rebel movements and the population itself, in a complex mass of intersubjective and power-based interactions and negotiations. Rebels both shape and are shaped by existing forms of order in complex and ongoing ways. This article explores how varying elements interact in the negotiation, framing and enforcement of order and develops an original analytical framework to examine the perpetual negotiations of rebel movements in their attempts to cement their control.     

一种可扩展的Cyber空间作战体系描述模型

研究了Cyber空间作战体系模型构建技术,提出一种面向Cyber空间作战模拟的战争系统建模新思路,并以此为基础提出了Cyber空间作战体系一体化逻辑网络模型。将Cyber空间作战涉及到的敌我双方作战实体视为一个整体系统的组分,抽象为网络模型的实体节点,实体间的各种合作、协同、对抗等不同类型交互行为统一抽象为网络模型的逻辑边。针对网络模型的节点和边分别建立了基于本体的实体描述模型和基于OO-LAMBDA语言的行为描述模型。通过一个真实战例的仿真实验验证了本文提出的方法的有效性和正确性。     

Establishment,simulation and verification of firepower safety control model

On a narrow warship platform, the coordinated use of shipborne weapon systems may cause firepower conflicts, which seriously endangers the ship safety. Meanwhile, with directed-energy weapons mounted on ships, firepower conflicts between weapons become a “high probability event”. Aiming at the problem of firepower safety control, based on the research about the collision probability model of air crafts and space targets and according to the cone of fire model of conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons, this paper solved the firepower conflict probabilities between conventional weapons as well as between conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons respectively using the methods of probability theory, and established the firepower safety control model. Then the calculation of firepower conflict probability was carried out using the dimensionality reduction method based on the equivalent conversion of polar coordinates and the power series method based on Laplace transform. The simulation results revealed that the proposed model and calculation methods are effective and reliable, which can provide theoretical basis and technical support for resolution of firepower conflicts between weapons.     

基于模糊Petri网的航材供应链冲突诊断建模与分析

结合航材供应链特点,建立航材供应链冲突诊断指标体系,并将节点问协作指标引入体系之中。通过模糊产生式规则,建立航材供应链冲突诊断模型,进行诊断推理,找出引起冲突的关键因素,并提出航材供应链冲突的防范对策。