Extrapolation of the mean lifetime of a large population from its preliminary survival history

A large population of independent identical units having finite mean lifetime T is observed. From the history A(y) of cumulative arrivals and the history B(y) of cumulative removals in the interval 0 ≦ y ≦ τ one must predict at time τ the desired T . Two lifetime predictors X(τ) and Y(τ) and related simple predictors obtained from A(y) and B(y) are shown to converge to T with a rate of convergence dependent on the structure of the failure rate function of the units. This dependence is studied theoretically and numerically.     

A decomposable transshipment algorithm for a multiperiod transportation problem

A dynamic version of the transportation (Hitchcock) problem occurs when there are demands at each of n sinks for T periods which can be fulfilled by shipments from m sources. A requirement in period t₂ can be satisfied by a shipment in the same period (a linear shipping cost is incurred) or by a shipment in period t₁ < t₂ (in addition to the linear shipping cost a linear inventory cost is incurred for every period in which the commodity is stored). A well known method for solving this problem is to transform it into an equivalent single period transportation problem with mT sources and nT sinks. Our approach treats the model as a transshipment problem consisting of T, m source — n sink transportation problems linked together by inventory variables. Storage requirements are proportional to T² for the single period equivalent transportation algorithm, proportional to T, for our algorithm without decomposition, and independent of T for our algorithm with decomposition. This storage saving feature enables much larger problems to be solved than were previously possible. Futhermore, we can easily incorporate upper bounds on inventories. This is not possible in the single period transportation equivalent.     

An M/M/1 queue with a general bulk service rule

A model of an M/M/1, bulk queue with service rates dependent on the batch size is developed. The operational policy is to commence service when at least L customers are available with a maximum batch size of K. Arriving customers are not allowed to join in-process service. The solution procedure utilizes the matrix geometric methodology and reduces to obtaining the inverse of a square matrix of dimension K + 1 - L. For the case where the service rates are not batch size dependent, the limiting probabilities can be written in closed form. A numerical example illustrates the variability of the system cost as a function of the minimum batch service size L.     

A characterization of the wald distribution

Suppose X is a random variable having an absolutely continuous distribution function F(x). We assume that F(x) has the Wald distribution. A relation between the probability density function of X⁻¹ with that of X is used to characterize the Wald distribution.     

Optimal refueling sequence for a mixed fleet with limited refuelings

Consider a fleet of vehicles comprised of K₁ identical tankers and K₂ identical nontankers (small aircraft). Tankers are capable of refueling other tankers as well as nontankers. The problem is to find that refueling sequence of the tankers that maximizes the range simultaneously attainable by all K₂ nontankers. A recent paper established that the “unit refueling sequence,” comprised of one tanker refueling at each of K₁ refueling operations, is optimal. The same paper also proffered the following conjecture for the case that the number of refueling operations is constrained to be less than the number of tankers: A nonincreasing refueling sequence is optimal. This article proves the conjecture.     

Deterministic and stochastic scheduling with teamwork tasks

We study a class of new scheduling problems which involve types of teamwork tasks. Each teamwork task consists of several components, and requires a team of processors to complete, with each team member to process a particular component of the task. Once the processor completes its work on the task, it will be available immediately to work on the next task regardless of whether the other components of the last task have been completed or not. Thus, the processors in a team neither have to start, nor have to finish, at the same time as they process a task. A task is completed only when all of its components have been processed. The problem is to find an optimal schedule to process all tasks, under a given objective measure. We consider both deterministic and stochastic models. For the deterministic model, we find that the optimal schedule exhibits the pattern that all processors must adopt the same sequence to process the tasks, even under a general objective function GC = F(f₁(C₁), f₂(C₂), … , f_n(C_n)), where f_i(C_i) is a general, nondecreasing function of the completion time C_i of task i. We show that the optimal sequence to minimize the maximum cost MC = max f_i(C_i) can be derived by a simple rule if there exists an order f₁(t) ≤ … ≤ f_n(t) for all t between the functions {f_i(t)}. We further show that the optimal sequence to minimize the total cost TC = ∑ f_i(C_i) can be constructed by a dynamic programming algorithm. For the stochastic model, we study three optimization criteria: (A) almost sure minimization; (B) stochastic ordering; and (C) expected cost minimization. For criterion (A), we show that the results for the corresponding deterministic model can be easily generalized. However, stochastic problems with criteria (B) and (C) become quite difficult. Conditions under which the optimal solutions can be found for these two criteria are derived. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

A note on two IFR systems

We present probabilistic proofs for the following two facts: (i) A k out of n system of i.i.d (independent identically distributed). IFR (increasing failure rate) components has an IFR life distribution. (ii) A compound Poisson process with nonnegative i.i.d jumps with PF₂ distribution is IFR.     

An alternative proof of the IFRA property of some shock models

Let , where A (t)/t is nondecreasing in t, {P(k)^1/k} is nonincreasing. It is known that H(t) = 1 — H (t) is an increasing failure rate on the average (IFRA) distribution. A proof based on the IFRA closure theorem is given. H(t) is the distribution of life for systems undergoing shocks occurring according to a Poisson process where P (k) is the probability that the system survives k shocks. The proof given herein shows there is an underlying connection between such models and monotone systems of independent components that explains the IFRA life distribution occurring in both models.     

Distribution of number of point targets killed and higher moments of coverage of area targets

The coverage C of area targets by salvos of weapons generally varies randomly, because of random target location and weapon impact point fluctuations. A third source of variation appears when, instead of an area target, a multiple-element target is considered, consisting of m point targets distributed randomly and independently of one another around the target center. A multiple-integral expression is derived for the probability p_k of killing exactly k target elements. It is shown that p_k is a linear function of the higher moments, of the order k to m, of the area coverage C. More explicit expressions are derived for the case of two weapons and for circular-symmetric functions. Similar to well-known results for the expectation and variance of coverage of area targets, these expressions can be evaluated by numerical quadrature. Furthermore, the coverage problem in which all underlying functions are Gaussian can be completely solved in closed form. For such a problem, with two weapons, numerical results are presented. They show that the distribution of k can be approximated by a binomial distribution only if the target center and weapon impact point fluctuations are small.     

Estimating critical path and arc probabilities in stochastic activity networks

This article describes a new procedure for estimating parameters of a stochastic activity network of N arcs. The parameters include the probability that path m is the longest path, the probability that path m is the shortest path, the probability that arc i is on the longest path, and the probability that arc i is on the shortest path. The proposed procedure uses quasirandom points together with information on a cutset ? of the network to produce an upper bound of O[(log K)^N?|?|+1/K] on the absolute error of approximation, where K denotes the number of replications. This is a deterministic bound and is more favorable than the convergence rate of 1/K^1/2 that one obtains from the standard error for K independent replications using random sampling. It is also shown how series reduction can improve the convergence rate by reducing the exponent on log K. The technique is illustrated using a Monte Carlo sampling experiment for a network of 16 relevant arcs with a cutset of ? = 7 arcs. The illustration shows the superior performance of using quasirandom points with a cutset (plan A) and the even better performance of using quasirandom points with the cutset together with series reduction (plan B) with regard to mean square error. However, it also shows that computation time considerations favor plan A when K is small and plan B when K is large.     

Estimating value in a uniform auction

Consider an auction in which increasing bids are made in sequence on an object whose value θ is known to each bidder. Suppose n bids are received, and the distribution of each bid is conditionally uniform. More specifically, suppose the first bid X₁ is uniformly distributed on [0, θ], and the i^th bid is uniformly distributed on [X_i?1, θ] for i = 2, …?, n. A scenario in which this auction model is appropriate is described. We assume that the value θ is un known to the statistician and must be esimated from the sample X₁, X₂, …?, X_n. The best linear unbiased estimate of θ is derived. The invariance of the estimation problem under scale transformations in noted, and the best invariant estimation problem under scale transformations is noted, and the best invariant estimate of θ under loss L(θ, a) = [(a/θ) ? 1]² is derived. It is shown that this best invariant estimate has uniformly smaller mean-squared error than the best linear unbiased estimate, and the ratio of the mean-squared errors is estimated from simulation experiments. A Bayesian formulation of the estimation problem is also considered, and a class of Bayes estimates is explicitly derived.     

Optimal refueling strategies for a mixed-vehicle fleet

The problem treated here involves a mixed fleet of vehicles comprising two types of vehicles: K₁ tanker-type vehicles capable of refueling themselves and other vehicles, and K₂ nontanker vehicles incapable of refueling. The two groups of vehicles have different fuel capacities as well as different fuel consumption rates. The problem is to find the tanker refueling sequence that maximizes the range attainable for the K₂ nontankers. A tanker refueling sequence is a partition of the tankers into m subsets (2 ≤ m ≤ K₁). A given sequence of the partition provides a realization of the number of tankers participating in each successive refueling operation. The problem is first formulated as a nonlinear mixed-integer program and reduced to a linear program for a fixed sequence which may be solved by a simple recursive procedure. It is proven that a “unit refueling sequence” composed of one tanker refueling at each of K₁ refueling operations is optimal. In addition, the problem of designing the “minimum fleet” (minimum number of tankers) required for a given set of K₂ nontankers to attain maximal range is resolved. Also studied are extensions to the problem with a constraint on the number of refueling operations, different nontanker recovery base geometry, and refueling on the return trip.     

A note on optimal switching between two activities

Let f₁ and f₂ map [0, T] into the real numbers. A system is following either f₁ or f₂ and earning the associated reward ∫ f₁ or ∫ f₂, respectively. It is possible at any time to switch from f_i to f_j by paying a switching cost b > 0. We determine a switching policy which maximizes the total reward. Conditions which guarantee a planning horizon are established.     

Optimum quantiles for the linear estimation of the parameters of the extreme value distribution in complete and censored samples

The present study is concerned with the determination of a few observations from a sufficiently large complete or censored sample from the extreme value distribution with location and scale parameters μ and σ, respectively, such that the asymptotically best linear unbiased estimators (ABLUE) of the parameters in Ref. [24] yield high efficiencies among other choices of the same number of observations. (All efficiencies considered are relative to the Cramér-Rao lower bounds for regular unbiased estimators.) The study is on the asymptotic theory and under Type II censoring scheme. For the estimation of μ when σ is known, it has been proved that there exists a unique optimum spacing whether the sample is complete, right censored, left censored, or doubly censored. Several tables are prepared to aid in the numerical computation of the estimates as well as to furnish their efficiencies. For the estimation of σ when μ is known, it has been observed that there does not exist a unique optimum spacing. Accordingly we have obtained a spacing based on a complete sample which yields high efficiency. A similar table as above is prepared. When both μ and σ are unknown, we have considered four different spacings based on a complete sample and chosen the one yielding highest efficiency. A table of the efficiencies is also prepared. Finally we apply the above results for the estimation of the scale and/or shape parameters of the Weibull distribution.     

Some properties and computational results for a general repair process

We consider a general repair process where the virtual age V_i after the ith repair is given by V_i = ϕ(V_i−1 + X_i), ϕ(·) is a specified repair functional, and X_i is the time between the (i − 1)th and ith repair. Some monotonicity and dominance properties are derived, and an equilibrium process is considered. A computational method for evaluating the expected number/density of repairs is described together with an approximation method for obtaining some parameters of the equilibrium process. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 391–405, 1998     

Johnson's approximate method for the 3 × n job shop problem

The effectiveness of Johnson's Approximate Method (JAM) for the 3 × n job shop scheduling problems was examined on 1,500 test cases with n ranging from 6 to 50 and with the processing times A_i, B_i, C_i (for item i on machines A, B, C) being uniformly and normally distributed. JAM proved to be quite effective for the case B_i ? max (A_i, C_i) and optimal for B_i, ? min (A_i, C_i).     

On the moments of gamma order statistics

A recurrence relation between the moments of order statistics from the gamma distribution having an integer parameter r is obtained. It is shown that if the negative moments of orders -(r?1), …, ?1 of the smallest order statistic in random samples of size n are known, then one can obtain all the moments. Tables of negative moments for r = 2 (1) 5 are also given.     

Decomposition and hybrid simulated annealing heuristics for the parallel-machine total tardiness problem

A polynomial decomposition heuristic is developed for the parallel-machine tardiness problem (P&sol& sol;T) by extending the decomposition principle embedded in the single-machine tardiness problem (1&sol/T) to a parallel-machine setting. The subproblems generated by the decomposition are solved by an effective heuristic that yields solutions such that the schedule on any individual machine satisfies the single-machine decomposition principle. A hybrid simulated annealing heuristic tailored to the P&sol/T problem is also presented. Computational results demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the decomposition heuristic. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Book reviews

G. C. Peden, British Rearmament And The Treasury: 1932–1939. Edinburgh: Scottish Academic Press, 1979. Pp. 227; £6.00.

B. Mitchell Simpson (Ed.), War Strategy and Maritime Power. New Brunswick, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press, 1978. Pp. 356; $19.50.

Paola E. Coletta, Admiral Bradley A. Fiske and the American Navy. Lawrence, Kansas: The Regents Press, 1979. Pp. 306; $25.00.

James L. George, Problems of Sea Power as We Approach the Twenty‐First Century. Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1978. Pp. 365; $11.75, clothbound and $5.75 paperback.

Donald C. Daniel (Ed), International Perceptions of the Super‐Power Military Balance. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1978. Pp 198;£13.50.

D. Frei (ed.), International Crises and Crisis Management. Farnborough: Saxon House, 1978. Pp. 154; £10.00.

Yaacov Ro'i (Ed.), The Limits to Power: Soviet Policy in the Middle East. London: Croom Helm, 1979. Pp. 376; £10.95.

E. J. Feuchtwanger and R. A. Mason, (Eds.), Air Power in the Next Genera‐tion. London: Macmillan Press, 1978. Pp. 151; £10.00.

J. David Singer (Ed.), The Correlates of War: I Research Origins and Rationale. New York: The Free Press; 1979. Pp. 405; £13.45.     

The solution to an open problem for a caching game

In a caching game introduced by Alpern et al. (Alpern et al., Lecture notes in computer science (2010) 220–233) a Hider who can dig to a total fixed depth normalized to 1 buries a fixed number of objects among n discrete locations. A Searcher who can dig to a total depth of h searches the locations with the aim of finding all of the hidden objects. If he does so, he wins, otherwise the Hider wins. This zero‐sum game is complicated to analyze even for small values of its parameters, and for the case of 2 hidden objects has been completely solved only when the game is played in up to 3 locations. For some values of h the solution of the game with 2 objects hidden in 4 locations is known, but the solution in the remaining cases was an open question recently highlighted by Fokkink et al. (Fokkink et al., Search theory: A game theoretic perspective (2014) 85–104). Here we solve the remaining cases of the game with 2 objects hidden in 4 locations. We also give some more general results for the game, in particular using a geometrical argument to show that when there are 2 objects hidden in n locations and n→∞, the value of the game is asymptotically equal to h/n for h≥n/2. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 23–31, 2016