空防对抗中军事高新技术发展的系统动力学分析

探寻了五类高新技术的发展和应用情况,分析了系统动力学方法定量研究空防对抗背景下五类关键技术发展的可行性;明确了五类高新技术支撑下的空防对抗要素,构建了空防对抗系统的因果回路图和存量流量图,并在此基础上设计了科学的仿真实验,分析了五类高新技术对应的作战力量融入空防对抗体系后对空袭与防空作战的影响.研究得到了五类高新技术对空防双方的实际作用效果和有关这些高新技术如何发展的几点结论,对空军未来相关军事高新技术的发展实践具有一定的借鉴意义.     

武器装备体系结构演化博弈框架

制定武器装备体系的发展策略和方案时需要对装备体系结构的动态对抗变化过程进行建模和仿真分析。该过程时间跨度大、涉及因素多,目前缺少定量描述方法。将演化仿真与博弈论结合,提出了武器装备体系结构演化博弈方法及其分析框架。详细分析了武器装备体系结构发展过程的博弈要素映射和演化方式,给出了演化博弈方法和同步、异步博弈的定义,着重研究了演化博弈框架的组成、形式化描述方法、分析问题的阶段与步骤。以“星球大战”计划期间美苏导弹防御系统演化博弈为例,验证了方法的可行性和有效性。     

区域防空作战体系结构超网络建模方法

针对以往防空体系结构建模方法存在难以量化描述其内部运行机理的问题,提出区域防空作战体系结构超网络建模方法。首先,分析区域防空体系结构超网络特征;其次,构建区域防空体系结构的粒度空间,由此提出区域防空体系结构"两层四网"超网络建模思想;最后,通过提取防空体系中作战节点的多维属性特征,在此基础上分别从纵向角度研究防空体系结构分层结构关系,从横向角度研究各作战功能网络之间的映射机制,从而实现防空体系结构内部运行机理量化建模,为防空体系结构量化研究提供一种新思路。     

网络化防空导弹体系作战效能的仿真评估

引入基于复杂适应系统理论的Agent概念,提出了具有数据链火控信息共享能力的网络化防空导弹体系结构,用于分析对比网络化防空导弹体系和平台中心化防空导弹体系结构。利用Swarm仿真平台,分别构建了具有战术对抗背景的网络化防空导弹体系和平台中心化防空导弹体系。通过仿真,定量描述了具有数据链火控信息共享能力的网络化防空导弹体系的作战效能。     

空防体系网电对抗系统动力学分析

空防体系网电对抗系统极为复杂,系统动力学理论为上述问题研究提供了方法途径。在确定了空防体系网电对抗系统边界和要素基础上,通过因果回路图明确了系统不同要素之间的相互关系;建立了系统流图,为空防体系网电对抗系统动力学仿真奠定了基础。在合理的仿真设计和仿真实验基础上,分析了空防对抗战场空间拓展到网电空间对空袭与防空作战的影响。通过仿真分析得到了几点一般性结论,对指导信息化条件下的空防作战与建设具有一定借鉴意义。     

区域联合防空的系统动力学模型与模拟研究

区域联合防空是未来信息化防空的基本模式。运用SD理论和流率基本入树法,建立了区域联合防空空防对抗的模型,选择了具有代表性的"信息化防空"情况进行了仿真,并对模拟输出结果进行了深入分析,揭示了系统行为的一些本质特点及产生原因。研究结果可为指挥员正确决策提供定量理论支持,为区域联合防空作战研究提供了一种新的定性与定量相结合的方法。     

基于时滞的现代空防对抗兰彻斯特方程模型

针对现代战争中空防对抗过程的复杂,分析了现代作战条件下空袭与防空作战的主要特点,建立了基于时滞的现代空防对抗兰彻斯特方程模型,给出了该模型参数的求取方法,并进行了算例仿真分析,得到了有价值的仿真结果,为现代空防与防空作战提供了指导。     

基于超网络的作战体系演化模型构建方法

作战体系建模是体系对抗分析和体系能力水平度量的基础,分析了作战体系的网络特性,引入与作战体系网络具有天然契合性的超网络理论,提出基于时序的作战体系超网络描述方法,根据作战体系网络特性提出局域空间点超度择优演化机制;提出基于网络连通率的体系抗毁性指标,并结合复杂网络理论分析超网络节点距离的计算方法,提出基于网络距离的体系时延效率指标.最后,引入一则空战体系网络示例,将所提出演化机制与随机演化机制进行对比分析,仿真结果验证了演化机制的有效性和合理性,对装备体系演化建模与动态优化具有重要指导意义.     

防空通信系统性能评价及抗毁性分析

分析了防空通信系统的组织结构和对抗特点,利用性能评价过程代数描述防空通信系统的状态演化,提出一种防空通信系统抗毁特性分析方法。通过具体案例,对通信系统的组织结构、抗击软硬杀伤的能力进行建模和仿真验证。实验结果表明,该方法适用于防空通信系统的建模与分析,能够实现对防空通信系统的结构进行对抗过程的建模;通信系统的不同要素对抗毁性能的影响不同,可以采取有效策略以提高防空通信系统的抗毁能力。     

防空导弹武器系统动态组网方式研究

网络化作战已成为当前的发展趋势,传统的组网方式已不能满足空防对抗的需要,使得防空系统也必须做出相应的调整.在分析传统组网方式的基础上,提出了分布式与集中式结构相结合的动态组网方式,实现了整个网络的开放、扁平、指控节点可变,系统的作战效能大大提高.     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Cyberpower in Strategic Affairs: Neither Unthinkable nor Blessed

Abstract

This article explores the effect of connectivity on strategic affairs. It argues that the effect on war's character is potentially, although not yet shown in practice, considerably large. Its effect upon the distribution of power among states in the international system is small, contrary to the claims of ‘cyberwar’ alarmists. All told, however, its effect upon strategic affairs is complex. On the one hand, it represents a significant advance in the ‘complexification’ of state strategies, understood in the sense of the production of intended effects. On the other hand, strategists today – still predominantly concerned with the conflicts and confrontations of states and organised military power – are generally missing the power which non-traditional strategic actors, better adapted to the network flows of the information age, are beginning to deploy. These new forms of organization and coercion will challenge the status quo.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.