On the exponentially weighted moving variance

MacGregor and Harris (J Quality Technol 25 (1993) 106–118) proposed the exponentially weighted mean squared deviation (EWMS) and the exponentially weighted moving variance (EWMV) charts as ways of monitoring process variability. These two charts are particularly useful for individual observations where no estimate of variability is available from replicates. However, the control charts derived by using the approximate distributions of the EWMS and EWMV statistics are difficult to interpret in terms of the average run length (ARL). Furthermore, both control charting schemes are biased procedures. In this article, we propose two new control charts by applying a normal approximation to the distributions of the logarithms of the weighted sum of chi squared random variables, which are respectively functions of the EWMS and EWMV statistics. These new control charts are easy to interpret in terms of the ARL. On the basis of the simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed charts are superior to the EWMS and EWMV charts and they both are nearly unbiased for the commonly used smoothing constants. We also compare the performance of the proposed charts with that of the change point (CP) CUSUM chart of Acosta‐Mejia (1995). The design of the proposed control charts is discussed. An example is also given to illustrate the applicability of the proposed control charts. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Minimizing weighted mean absolute deviation of flow times in single machine systems

We discuss the problem of scheduling several jobs on a single machine with the objective of minimizing the weighted mean absolute deviation of flow times around the weighted mean flow time. We first show that the optimal schedule is W-shaped. For the unweighted case, we show that all optimal schedules are V-shaped. This characterization enables us to show that the problem is NP-hard. We then provide a pseudopolynomial algorithm for the unweighted problem. Finally, we consider three heuristic algorithms for the unweighted problem and report computational experience with these algorithms. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 297–311, 1998     

Bayes 试验分析中验前分布的表示

结合武器系统试验鉴定中的问题，研究Ｂａｙｅｓ方法运用中的验前信息表示问题。文中运用自助（Ｂｏｏｔｓｔｒａｐ）方法和随机加权法确定验前分布。对于多种信息源之下的验前信息，给出了验前分布的融合估计。对当前工程实践中常用的方法及存在的问题，提出了看法和处置方法。     

M/M/1 queues with interdependent arrival and service processes

We study via simulation an M/M/1 queueing system with the assumption that a customer's service time and the interarrival interval separating his arrival from that of his predecessor are correlated random variables having a bivariate exponential distribution. We show that positive correlation reduces the mean and variance of the total waiting time and that negative correlation has the opposite effect. By using spectral analysis and a nonparametric test applied to the sample power spectra associated with certain simulated waiting times we show the effect to be statistically significant.     

Scheduling stochastic jobs with asymmetric earliness and tardiness penalties

We consider a stochastic counterpart of the well-known earliness-tardiness scheduling problem with a common due date, in which n stochastic jobs are to be processed on a single machine. The processing times of the jobs are independent and normally distributed random variables with known means and known variances that are proportional to the means. The due dates of the jobs are random variables following a common probability distribution. The objective is to minimize the expectation of a weighted combination of the earliness penalty, the tardiness penalty, and the flow-time penalty. One of our main results is that an optimal sequence for the problem must be V-shaped with respect to the mean processing times. Other characterizations of the optimal solution are also established. Two algorithms are proposed, which can generate optimal or near-optimal solutions in pseudopolynomial time. The proposed algorithms are also extended to problems where processing times do not satisfy the assumption in the model above, and are evaluated when processing times follow different probability distributions, including general normal (without the proportional relation between variances and means), uniform, Laplace, and exponential. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44, 531–557, 1997.     

Approximating partial inverse moments for certain normal variates with an application to decaying inventories

This paper considers the problem of computing E(X^?n; X > t) when X is a normal variate having the property that the mean is substantially larger than the standard deviation. An approximation is developed which is determined from the mean, standard deviation, and the cumulative standard normal distribution. Computations comparing the approximate moments with the actual are reported for various values of the relevant parameters. These results are applied to the problem of computing the expected number of shortages in a lead-time for a single product which exhibits continuous exponential decay.     

Confidence intervals related to sequential test for the exponential distribution

One-sided sequential tests for the mean of an exponential distribution are proposed, and the related confidence intervals are computed. The tests behave like the classical sequential probability-ration test when the mean is small and like a fixed-time test when the mean is large and accurate estimation is important.     

On some stochastic inequalities involving minimum of random variables

Let X_i be independent IFR random variables and let Y_i be independent exponential random variables such that E[X_i]=E[Y_i] for all i=1, 2, ? n. Then it is well known that E[min (X_i)] ≥E[min (X_i)]. Nevertheless, for 1≤i≤n exponentially distributed X_i's and for a decreasing convex function ?(.). it is shown that .     

直升机航迹滤波与预估研究

结合武装直升机在巡航或搜索地面目标的特点 ,给出直升机航迹模型为协方差平稳随机模型。根据声探测方式 ,推出了测量模型。对直升机航迹进行卡尔曼滤波与预估 ,最后对航迹进行了仿真研究。     

Scheduling of stochastic tasks on two parallel processors

We consider the problem of scheduling n tasks on two identical parallel processors. We show both in the case when the processing times for the n tasks are independent exponential random variables, and when they are independent hyperexponentials which are mixtures of two fixed exponentials, that the policy of performing tasks with longest expected processing time (LEPT) first minimizes the expected makespan, and that in the hyperexponential case the policy of performing tasks with shortest expected processing time (SEPT) first minimizes the expected flow time. The approach is simpler than the dynamic programming approach recently employed by Bruno and Downey.     

Constant risk aversion in stochastic contests with exponential completion times

This article analyzes a class of stochastic contests among multiple players under risk‐averse exponential utility. In these contests, players compete over the completion of a task by simultaneously deciding on their investment, which determines how fast they complete the task. The completion time of the task for each player is assumed to be an exponentially distributed random variable with rate linear in the player's investment and the completion times of different players are assumed to be stochastically independent. The player that completes the task first earns a prize whereas the remaining players earn nothing. The article establishes a one‐to‐one correspondence between the Nash equilibrium of this contest with respect to risk‐averse exponential utilities and the nonnegative solution of a nonlinear equation. Using the properties of the latter, it proves the existence and the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, and provides an efficient method to compute it. It exploits the resulting representation of the equilibrium investments to determine the effects of risk aversion and the differences between the outcome of the Nash equilibrium and that of a centralized version.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:4–14, 2019     

Stochastic scheduling subject to machine breakdowns: The preemptive‐repeat model with discounted reward and other criteria

We consider the problem of scheduling a set of jobs on a single machine subject to random breakdowns. We focus on the preemptive‐repeat model, which addresses the situation where, if a machine breaks down during the processing of a job, the work done on the job prior to the breakdown is lost and the job will have to be started from the beginning again when the machine resumes its work. We allow that (i) the uptimes and downtimes of the machine follow general probability distributions, (ii) the breakdown process of the machine depends upon the job being processed, (iii) the processing times of the jobs are random variables following arbitrary distributions, and (iv) after a breakdown, the processing time of a job may either remain a same but unknown amount, or be resampled according to its probability distribution. We first derive the optimal policy for a class of problems under the criterion to maximize the expected discounted reward earned from completing all jobs. The result is then applied to further obtain the optimal policies for other due date‐related criteria. We also discuss a method to compute the moments and probability distributions of job completion times by using their Laplace transforms, which can convert a general stochastic scheduling problem to its deterministic equivalent. The weighted squared flowtime problem and the maintenance checkup and repair problem are analyzed as applications. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

小子样条件下巡航导弹的命中精度评估方法

针对巡航导弹定型试验发数少、验前试验信息源多的特点,提出小子样条件下,通过可信性检验分别得到每个验前信息源的可信度,在导弹落点偏差分布为正态-逆伽马分布的假设下,获得评估的验前分布参数,选择基于可信度的加权方法对多源验前信息进行融合,采用Bayes估计方法得到命中精度。最后结合实例进行仿真,说明了该方法较传统的Bayes方法更稳健,很适合巡航导弹命中精度的评估。     

Limit laws in the best of 2n - 1 bernoulli trials

A series of independent Bernoulli trials is considered in which either an outcome of type A or type B occurs at each trial. The series terminates when n outcomes of one type have occurred. Two observable random variables of interest are the total number of outcomes in the series and the number of outcomes of the “losing kind.” Two methods of approximation of the expectations of these random variables for large n are obtained and compared. The limiting distribution of the number of outcomes of the “losing kind” is considered when a beta distribution is assigned to p.     

Approximation for the departure process of a queue in a network

A simple renewal process is identified to approximate the complex departure process of a queue often found in queueing network models. The arrival process to the queue is the superposition or merging of several independent component-renewal processes that are approximations of departure processes from other queues and external arrival processes; there is a single server with exponential service times, and the waiting space is infinite. The departure process of this queue is of interest because it is the arrival process to other queues in the network. The approximation proposed is a hybrid; the mean and variance of the approximating departure intervals is a weighted average of those determined by basic methods in Whitt [41] with the weighting function empirically determined using simulation. Tandem queueing systems with superposition arrival processes and exponential service times are used to evaluate the approximation. The departure process of the first queue in the tandem is approximated by a renewal process, the tandem system is replaced by two independent queues, and the second queue is solved analytically. When compared to simulation estimates, the average absolute error in hybrid approximations of the expected number in the second queue is 6%, a significant improvement over 22–41% in the basic methods.     

Reliability and mean residual life functions of coherent systems in an active redundancy

In this article, the reliability and the mean residual life (MRL) functions of a system with active redundancies at the component and system levels are investigated. In active redundancy at the component level, the original and redundant components are working together and lifetime of the system is determined by the maximum of lifetime of the original components and their spares. In the active redundancy at the system level, the system has a spare, and the original and redundant systems work together. The lifetime of such a system is then the maximum of lifetimes of the system and its spare. The lifetimes of the original component and the spare are assumed to be dependent random variables. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 64: 19–28, 2017     

Exact likelihood inference for the exponential distribution under generalized Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censoring

Chen and Bhattacharyya [Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring, Commun Statist Theory Methods 17 (1988), 1857–1870] considered a hybrid censoring scheme and obtained the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean of an exponential distribution along with an exact lower confidence bound. Childs et al. [Exact likelihood inference based on Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution, Ann Inst Statist Math 55 (2003), 319–330] recently derived an alternative simpler expression for the distribution of the MLE. These authors also proposed a new hybrid censoring scheme and derived similar results for the exponential model. In this paper, we propose two generalized hybrid censoring schemes which have some advantages over the hybrid censoring schemes already discussed in the literature. We then derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator as well as exact confidence intervals for the mean of the exponential distribution under these generalized hybrid censoring schemes. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Information in two-stage programming under uncertainty

The random variables in two-stage programming under uncertainty are generally treated in a passive manner in that no information regarding the random variables or the process generating the random variables may be obtained. This paper develops the economics of information for the case in which the probability distributions are discrete. A multinomial process is assumed to generate the random variables, and the parameter vector of that process is assumed to be unknown. A Dirichlet prior distribution on the parameter vector is used, and the computation of the value of information thus involves a Dirichlet-multinomial distribution on the random variables. An example involving producing to meet uncertain demands is presented.     

Optimal replacement of parts having observable correlated stages of deterioration

A single component system is assumed to progress through a finite number of increasingly bad levels of deterioration. The system with level i (0 ≤ i ≤ n) starts in state 0 when new, and is definitely replaced upon reaching the worthless state n. It is assumed that the transition times are directly monitored and the admissible class of strategies allows substitution of a new component only at such transition times. The durations in various deterioration levels are dependent random variables with exponential marginal distributions and a particularly convenient joint distribution. Strategies are chosen to maximize the average rewards per unit time. For some reward functions (with the reward rate depending on the state and the duration in this state) the knowledge of previous state duration provides useful information about the rate of deterioration.     

Statistical tests for exponential service from m/g/1 waiting-time data

From an original motivation in quantitative inventory modeling, we develop methods for testing the hypothesis that the service times of an M/G/1 queue are exponentially distributed, given a sequence of observations of customer line and/or system waits. The approaches are mostly extensions of the well-known exponential goodness-of-fit test popularized by Gnedenko, which results from the observation that the sum of a random exponential sample is Erlang distributed and thus that the quotient of two independent exponential sample means is F distributed.