早期核辐射毁伤效应空间建模及剖切算法

为了在3D GIS中实现早期核辐射毁伤效应可视化;提出了一种以多分辨率建模技术为基础的模型——MRPCT模型以及相应的模型剖切算法.该剖切算法采用了空间拓扑技术,可以实现毁伤空间任意角度的切割,从而全面揭示毁伤效果的空间结构特征;MRPCT模型实现了早期核辐射毁伤效应的三维空间数据模型的构建;为早期核辐射毁伤效应三维可视化和基于体元的空间分析与查询提供坚实的数据支持.     

舰炮武器对驱逐舰目标射击毁伤定律研究

在综合评判驱逐舰目标毁伤等级并建立目标毁伤树的基础上,构造了舰炮武器系统对驱逐舰目标射击命中毁伤区域的简化模型图,建立了舰炮对驱逐舰目标射击的条件命中概率模型,通过分析弹丸对装甲目标的终点效应,建立了舰炮对驱逐舰目标射击的条件毁伤概率模型.计算结果表明,运用该方法研究舰炮武器系统对驱逐舰目标射击毁伤定律可信性高.     

地基C~4I系统的高空核爆电磁脉冲易损性分析

建立了C4I系统的毁伤等级,完成了毁伤机理与毁伤模式分析,运用毁伤树分析方法构建毁伤树模型,确定了C4I系统的致命性部件,对进一步开展新型号导弹武器系统系统易损性评估研究具有一定的参考应用价值。     

核武器毁伤概率pij计算的一种改进方法

在核火力运用研究的最优瞄准点选择计算中 ,核武器对目标毁伤概率 pij的计算是至关重要的。在 Gauss-L egendre求积方法的基础上 ,提出计算核武器毁伤概率 pij的一种改进方法 ,经计算证明 :此方法计算速度快且精度高。     

穿甲弹对主战坦克毁伤的计算分析

在完善毁伤等级、目标构造、部件贡献因子、毁伤准则、目标描述系统、系统杀伤树等概念的基础上建立穿甲弹对主战坦克的毁伤模型,通过此模型计算单发弹命中坦克时的毁伤概率,提出主战坦克易损性分析的方法及降低易损性的途径.     

基于毁伤能力匹配的弹药需求量确定模型

针对弹药需求预计中缺少弹药目标毁伤基础数据的问题,分析弹药目标毁伤机理,考虑多种毁伤效应共同作用,提出弹药毁伤能力与目标抗毁伤能力,首次从毁伤效应的角度入手,运用理论计算,建立基于毁伤能力匹配的弹药需求量确定模型,得到一种弹药打击一个目标所需的弹药数量,即单目标单弹种的弹药需求量。该模型为弹药需求预计提供了基础数据,提升了弹药需求预计的准确性和科学性。     

防范“太空珍珠港”袭击事件——美国卫星应对核电磁脉冲威胁的措施

一旦拥有核武器及其投送工具的国家和集团在高空引爆了核装置,高空核爆炸产生的电磁脉冲将对各种军用及民用卫星产生巨大的毁伤效应。美国五角大楼看到了这种威胁, 为保护卫星免受核爆炸效应的破坏采取了许多措施。     

基于有限单元的导弹攻击目标的毁伤模型

首先提出目标的毁伤准则、目标的结构、毁伤树 ,采用有限元法对目标进行有限划分 ,建立破片式战斗部导弹对目标的毁伤模型。以导弹发射车为例 ,进行仿真研究 ,并给出仿真结果。从仿真结果来看 ,采用该仿真方法能够描述导弹攻击地面目标的毁伤过程     

军事软毁伤效应综合评估与决策分析

军事打击不但可以直接毁伤敌方政治、军事目标,而且可以造成敌方社会秩序混乱、经济发展受挫、人民心理恐慌等军事软毁伤效应。军事软毁伤效应在未来信息化战争中很有可能达成显著的战略目标,因此,研究军事软毁伤效应具有重要而现实的意义。依据软毁伤理论,建立了军事软毁伤效应的综合评估指标体系,给出了一种军事软毁伤效应的综合评估模型,并设计了综合评估决策支持系统。     

地空导弹装备易损性分析及毁伤评估仿真研究

针对地空导弹装备易损性分析的难点及其毁伤评估研究的重要性,以装备功能组成为依据,建立其毁伤树模型,在分析杀伤战斗部毁伤机理并验证其科学性的基础上,结合装备几何模型、物理模型及功能模型设计开发了毁伤评估仿真系统。研究结果对地空导弹装备防护结构设计、提高其抗毁伤能力研究有一定的指导意义。     

核电标准对核安全法规支撑问题的研究

在我国核电建设中,现行的核电标准从整体看,发挥了一定的作用,但也存在需亟待解决的诸多问题,其中比较突出的问题之一就是核电标准体系与核安全法规体系脱节,没有形成一个相互依存、协调配套的有机结合的体系,在很大程度上影响了核电标准和核安全法规整体功能和作用更好的发挥。本文通过对核电核安全保障和标准化实践及其重要经验的调研以及对于存在的主要问题进行了分析和讨论,提出了一些有益的启示或可供参考、借鉴的经验,以及解决问题的方法、途径和措施等。     

Nuclear Fusion Power for Weapons Purposes

Fusion reactors have the potential to be used for military purposes. This article provides quantitative estimates about weapon-relevant materials produced in future commercial fusion reactors and discusses how suitable such materials are for use in nuclear weapons. Whether states will consider such use in the future will depend on specific regulatory, political, economic, and technical boundary conditions. Based on expert interviews and the political science literature, we identify three of these conditions that could determine whether fusion power will have a military dimension in the second half of this century: first, the technological trajectory of global energy policies; second, the management of a peaceful power transition between rising and declining powers; and third, the overall acceptance of the nuclear normative order. Finally, the article discusses a few regulatory options that could be implemented by the time fusion reactors reach technological maturity and become commercially available; such research on fusion reactor safeguards should start as early as possible and accompany the current research on experimental fusion reactors.     

提高潜艇核安全性的措施

本文根据对潜艇处于水下状态发生辐射事故时的辐射影响的分析,得出当燃料元件包壳破损率和蒸汽发生器传热管泄漏量即使在允许限值内,主辅机舱空气放射性浓度有可能超过允许水平,而直接影响艇员的健康,并针对这一点提出了相应的改进措施。     

Serious Rules for Nuclear Power Without Proliferation

The authors propose five principles for addressing the major deficiencies of the current treaty-based approach to nonproliferation. These involve: effectively closing the door to withdrawals from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT); defining which nuclear technologies fall within the NPT's “inalienable right” provision, so as to maintain a reasonable safety margin against possible military application; expansion of International Atomic Energy Agency inspections to include greater readiness to use its “special” inspection authority; creation of an NPT enforcement regime, to include a secretariat; and universalizing the NPT so as to apply to all states, while creating a path for current non-parties to come into compliance. There is no illusion here about the prospects for the adoption of this approach. At a minimum, the world needs to be frank about the gap between nuclear programs and current nonproliferation protection. Encouragement of greater use of nuclear power should be predicated on closing that gap.     

A Novel Framework for Safeguarding Naval Nuclear Material

ABSTRACT

The present international standard allows non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) to forego safeguards when nuclear material is used in a “non-proscribed military activity,” though no criteria have been established to determine when NNWS can remove naval nuclear material from safeguards. Though at present, only nuclear-armed states possess nuclear submarines, the global nuclear naval landscape may soon change with the advancement of Brazil's fledgling program and the possible precedent it would set for other NNWS. A framework is needed to shore up nuclear security and prevent nuclear material diversion from the nuclear naval sector. Proposed and existing nonproliferation frameworks, including a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty and commitments through the nuclear security summits, are insufficient to close this loophole. A Naval Use Safeguards Agreement (NUSA), modeled after the Additional Protocol of the International Atomic Energy Agency, would provide a framework to remove the opacity surrounding nuclear material in the naval sector. Designed for NNWS and encouraged as confidence-building measures for nuclear weapon states, NUSA would explicitly outline those stages in the naval nuclear fuel cycle where safeguards are to be applied and in what context. This viewpoint also further provides direction for targeted research and development in technical naval nuclear safeguards solutions.     

Effects of Nuclear Technology Export Competition on Nuclear Nonproliferation

ABSTRACT

While nuclear suppliers compete in markets, they simultaneously partner in other fields. This produces a delicate relationship between civilian nuclear programs and nuclear weapon proliferation. This study explores how export competition affects suppliers’ conditions of supply related to nuclear nonproliferation. We investigated three export cases (India, North Korea, and South Korea) and identified four effects that competition has on the conditions of supply related to nonproliferation. First, under highly competitive conditions, suppliers might hesitate to enforce the conditions of supply to avoid negotiation conflicts with recipients. Second, suppliers focus on politically and economically attractive recipients while mostly ignoring unattractive ones, perhaps allowing proliferation problems to fester out of view in marginal states. Third, suppliers can build consensus on the conditions of supply to avoid being the only party experiencing negotiation conflicts. Fourth, suppliers can constrain others from relaxing the conditions of supply to maintain economic benefits and nonproliferation norms. The first two effects accelerate proliferation while the last two promote nonproliferation. Although the extent of these effects can vary with changes in nonproliferation norms, they can contribute to our understanding of the relationship between nonproliferation and civilian nuclear programs.     

核电站运行诊断系统探讨

根据国外核电站诊断系统的现状,简要叙述其基本组成及工作过程,分析了运行诊断系统在核动力方面的应用前景,提出了加强核电站运行诊断系统应用有效性的几个问题。     

French Nuclear Diplomacy

“French nuclear diplomacy” is the French government's use of civilian nuclear cooperation agreements (NCAs) to advance specific commercial and strategic interests. During the heart of the so-called nuclear renaissance, the Élysée Palace aggressively peddled France's nuclear expertise and technology abroad, signing over a dozen new NCAs in an effort to bring in business for the French industry, forge diplomatic relationships, and promote global nonproliferation norms. Several years later, however, the outcomes of France's aggressive global nuclear power push appear nominal at best. This article explores the mixed results of this nuclear campaign, and through three case studies, illustrates how many of France's commercial and political disappointments stem from unrealistic expectations and the disorganization of the French nuclear complex.