基于信息熵的未确知测度的指挥信息优势评估

现代战争中获取信息优势成为夺取战争胜利的关键。为更好对指挥信息优势进行定量评估,在未确知数学理论基础上,首先引入专家可信度对指标效果值进行处理;研究了信息优势的度量和识别方法;并通过评估指标输出的信息熵确定指标权重,建立了基于未确知测度的指挥信息优势评价模型。最后通过实例分析给出评估结果和改进建议,获得了较为成功的应用。未确知效果测度评价模型严谨,评价结果合理、精细、分辨率高,适合于指挥信息优势的评价。     

基于未确知测度的多目标决策方法及其应用

定义策略、目标和评判三个空间以及满足非负性、归一性和可加性的未确知测度函数,给出了适合于有序分割类评判空间寻优的最优决策准则,从而提出了一种未确知信息数学处理理论基础上的未确知测度决策方法,对含多因素特别是难以量化因素的决策问题寻优建立了一个合理、精细、分辨率高、计算简单高效的数学模型,用来求解多目标决策问题中的最优策略,并结合火力打击选择的一个实例分析,获得了较为成功的应用.     

区间参数结构可靠性分析新模型

针对未确知性信息的区间均布假定盲目保守的缺陷,结合工程参变量的典型特征,运用Chebyshev不等式和"3σ原则",并在遵循工程安全原则的前提下,基于若干保守假定提出并建立了未确知性信息的分段描述模型,给出了分段描述随机数生成策略和非概率可靠度计算的Monte Carlo仿真方法.通过算例进行了模型验证,并与区间均布假...     

爆炸式催泪弹非致命效应评估研究

通过对爆炸式催泪弹非致命效应各影响因素的研究,提出了对爆炸式催泪弹非致命效应评价的方法,建立了以非致命效应为核心的评价指标体系。将未确知测度数学模型应用到非致命效应的效能评估中,对爆炸式催泪弹的非致命效应进行了综合评估。为爆炸式催泪弹的科学使用及优化改进提供了决策依据。     

地面防空兵力配置的不确定性作战效能模型研究

针对现代防空作战环境包含大量不确定性因素的特点,运用地面防空兵战术学、不确定性信息理论和未确知数学理论,探讨地面防空兵力配置的不确定性作战效能问题。设计了能同时处理随机信息、未确知信息的不确定性模型,该模型以指挥员对敌机进袭的主要方向、临空投弹线、投射精确制导炸弹的位置和巡航导弹的进袭航线的主观判断,并以随机变量、未确知有理数的形式作为输入,经未确知期望的计算,得到反映守点、控线、前出战法兵力配置的作战效能值及其可信度。结合一实例进行分析和计算,显示该模型较为贴近实际,体现了从定性到定量分析的系统工程方法的特点。     

小样本下装备平均修复时间的非统计估计模型

针对小样本下装备平均修复时间的参数估计问题,提出了一种基于离散GM(1,1)模型和未确知有理数的新方法。首先,对原始数据序列进行等概率可放回地随机再抽样,通过离散GM(1,1)模型挖掘生成较多的样本数据;然后,使用未确知有理数对自助样本集合进行描述,构建其表达模型和阶数优化模型;最后,分别构建了平均修复时间基于未确知有理数的点估计和区间估计模型,并通过与GJB2072—94建议的估计模型进行参数估计与对比,验证了该非统计方法的有效性和可行性。     

基于多源先验数据的装备测试性评估方法

针对基于装备多源先验数据融合过程中可能存在数据冲突的问题,提出一种基于多源先验数据的装备测试性评估方法.针对装备设计、生产和制造过程中可能存在的测试性虚拟-实物试验数据、测试性预计信息和专家经验信息等先验数据,将其折合成先验分布参数形式.通过基于兰氏距离和邓熵改进的D-S证据理论来进行数据融合,得到最终测试性评估结果.通过实例分析发现,提出的方法较基于传统Bayes理论和经典D-S证据理论的测试性评估方法而言,其精度更高.     

考虑专家偏好的基于概率犹豫模糊熵的多属性决策方法

针对现有概率犹豫模糊多属性决策研究中,专家权重和属性权重的确定存在主观随意性的问题,提出了一种考虑专家偏好的基于概率犹豫模糊熵和前景理论的决策方法.基于贴近度度量,考虑专家的偏好性,以追求整体一致性为原则确定专家权重;基于概率犹豫模糊熵,考虑专家的决策差异,度量评估信息的犹豫性和模糊性,确定属性权重;采用前景理论对方案评估信息进行集结,根据价值函数和权重函数得到方案的前景价值,并以此进行方案排序.通过算例对比分析,验证了所提方法的科学性和合理性.     

未确知测度的武警机动师跨区域处突作战效能评估

基于未确知测度理论,建立了武警部队跨区域处置大规模突发事件的作战效能评价模型。首先,建立各影响因素的未确知测度函数。根据实际情况,采用定性、定量分析相结合,并利用熵权理论计算各影响因素的指标权重,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,最后得出某部队跨区域作战效能评价结果。计算结果更为客观与实际情况吻合较好,可见该方法的运用科学合理,所得结果对于提高部队作战效能以及辅助决策具有一定参考价值,可以在实际中推广应用。     

要地防空中目标威胁的未确知测度评价

本文在未确知测度理论基础上 ,针对防空作战中敌机威胁排序问题 ,建立了评价排序模型 ,并获得了较为成功的应用     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Cyberpower in Strategic Affairs: Neither Unthinkable nor Blessed

Abstract

This article explores the effect of connectivity on strategic affairs. It argues that the effect on war's character is potentially, although not yet shown in practice, considerably large. Its effect upon the distribution of power among states in the international system is small, contrary to the claims of ‘cyberwar’ alarmists. All told, however, its effect upon strategic affairs is complex. On the one hand, it represents a significant advance in the ‘complexification’ of state strategies, understood in the sense of the production of intended effects. On the other hand, strategists today – still predominantly concerned with the conflicts and confrontations of states and organised military power – are generally missing the power which non-traditional strategic actors, better adapted to the network flows of the information age, are beginning to deploy. These new forms of organization and coercion will challenge the status quo.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.