寿命分布的参数Bootstrap拟合优度检验方法

拟合优度检验在统计和可靠性等领域具有非常重要的地位,基于参数Bootstrap重采样的思想,对未知参数的常用寿命分布进行拟合优度检验。数值仿真结果表明,相对于传统的经验分布函数检验,这种基于参数Bootstrap的拟合优度检验具有更高的功效,特别是在小样本的情况下,优势明显。     

Reliability of a single unit with k spares in case of the hyper-exponential and the erlang failure distribution

In this paper formulas are derived for the reliability of a single unit to which identical spares in standby are allocated, with all of these units having a hyper-exponential or Erlang distributed lifetime. Two advantages are obtained by using these distributions. First, the general procedure for calculating the effect of redundancy is applicable, in contrast with most of the common life distributions, such as Weibull. Moreover, both distributions are suitable for matching to observed curves and practical data by varying the values of the parameters, covering together most of the cases of practical interest.     

Planning accelerated life tests for censored two‐parameter exponential distributions

We consider optimal test plans involving life distributions with failure‐free life, i.e., where there is an unknown threshold parameter below which no failure will occur. These distributions do not satisfy the regularity conditions and thus the usual approach of using the Fisher information matrix to obtain an optimal accelerated life testing (ALT) plan cannot be applied. In this paper, we assume that lifetime follows a two‐parameter exponential distribution and the stress‐life relationship is given by the inverse power law model. Near‐optimal test plans for constant‐stress ALT under both failure‐censoring and time‐censoring are obtained. We first obtain unbiased estimates for the parameters and give the approximate variance of these estimates for both failure‐censored and time‐censored data. Using these results, the variance for the approximate unbiased estimate of a percentile at a design stress is computed and then minimized to produce the near‐optimal plan. Finally, a numerical example is presented together with simulation results to study the accuracy of the approximate variance given by the proposed plan and show that it outperforms the equal‐allocation plan. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 169–186, 1999     

Approximation algorithms for general one‐warehouse multi‐retailer systems

Logistical planning problems are complicated in practice because planners have to deal with the challenges of demand planning and supply replenishment, while taking into account the issues of (i) inventory perishability and storage charges, (ii) management of backlog and/or lost sales, and (iii) cost saving opportunities due to economies of scale in order replenishment and transportation. It is therefore not surprising that many logistical planning problems are computationally difficult, and finding a good solution to these problems necessitates the development of many ad hoc algorithmic procedures to address various features of the planning problems. In this article, we identify simple conditions and structural properties associated with these logistical planning problems in which the warehouse is managed as a cross‐docking facility. Despite the nonlinear cost structures in the problems, we show that a solution that is within ε‐optimality can be obtained by solving a related piece‐wise linear concave cost multi‐commodity network flow problem. An immediate consequence of this result is that certain classes of logistical planning problems can be approximated by a factor of (1 + ε) in polynomial time. This significantly improves upon the results found in literature for these classes of problems. We also show that the piece‐wise linear concave cost network flow problem can be approximated to within a logarithmic factor via a large scale linear programming relaxation. We use polymatroidal constraints to capture the piece‐wise concavity feature of the cost functions. This gives rise to a unified and generic LP‐based approach for a large class of complicated logistical planning problems. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

The logistic–exponential survival distribution

For various parameter combinations, the logistic–exponential survival distribution belongs to four common classes of survival distributions: increasing failure rate, decreasing failure rate, bathtub‐shaped failure rate, and upside‐down bathtub‐shaped failure rate. Graphical comparison of this new distribution with other common survival distributions is seen in a plot of the skewness versus the coefficient of variation. The distribution can be used as a survival model or as a device to determine the distribution class from which a particular data set is drawn. As the three‐parameter version is less mathematically tractable, our major results concern the two‐parameter version. Boundaries for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters are derived in this article. Also, a fixed‐point method to find the maximum likelihood estimators for complete and censored data sets has been developed. The two‐parameter and the three‐parameter versions of the logistic–exponential distribution are applied to two real‐life data sets. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Bin‐packing problem with concave costs of bin utilization

We consider a generalized one‐dimensional bin‐packing model where the cost of a bin is a nondecreasing concave function of the utilization of the bin. Four popular heuristics from the literature of the classical bin‐packing problem are studied: First Fit (FF), Best Fit (BF), First Fit Decreasing (FFD), and Best Fit Decreasing (BFD). We analyze their worst‐case performances when they are applied to our model. The absolute worst‐case performance ratio of FF and BF is shown to be exactly 2, and that of FFD and BFD is shown to be exactly 1.5. Computational experiments are also conducted to test the performance of these heuristics. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Optimum step‐stress accelerated life test plans for log‐location‐scale distributions

This article presents new tools and methods for finding optimum step‐stress accelerated life test plans. First, we present an approach to calculate the large‐sample approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a quantile of the failure time distribution at use conditions from a step‐stress accelerated life test. The approach allows for multistep stress changes and censoring for general log‐location‐scale distributions based on a cumulative exposure model. As an application of this approach, the optimum variance is studied as a function of shape parameter for both Weibull and lognormal distributions. Graphical comparisons among test plans using step‐up, step‐down, and constant‐stress patterns are also presented. The results show that depending on the values of the model parameters and quantile of interest, each of the three test plans can be preferable in terms of optimum variance. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Remarks on a univariate shock model with some bivariate generalizations

In a 1973 paper J. D. Esary, A. W. Marshall, and F. Proschan [5] considered a shock model giving rise to various nonparametric classes of life distributions of interest in reliability theory. A number of authors have extended these results in a variety of directions. In this paper, alternative proofs of the increasing failure rate (IFR) and decreasing mean residual life (DMRL) results are given which do not make use of the theory of total positivity. Some bivariate extensions are then obtained using a shock model similar to that originally used by H. W. Block, A. S. Paulson, and R. C. Kohberger [2] to unify various bivariate exponential distributions.     

An (s,S) model for inventory with exponential lifetimes and renewal demands

Inventory control of products with finite lifetimes is important in many modern business organizations. It has been an important and difficult research subject. Here, we study the (s, S) continuous review model for items with an exponential random lifetime and a general renewal demand process through a Markov process. We derive a fundamental rate conservation theorem and show that all the other system performance measures can be obtained easily through the expected reorder cycle length. This leads to a simple expression for the total expected long run cost rate function in terms of the expected reorder cycle length. Subsequently, we derive formulas for computing the expected cycle lengths for the general renewal demand as well as for a large class of demands characterized by the phase type interdemand time distribution. We show analytically when the cost as a function of the reorder level is monotone, concave, or convex. We also show analytically that, depending on the behavior of the expected reorder cycle, the cost as a function of the order‐up level is either monotone increasing or unimodal. These analytical properties enable us to understand the problem and make the subsequent numerical optimization much easier. Numerical studies confirm and illustrate some of the analytical properties. The results also demonstrate the impact of various parameters on the optimal policy and the cost. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 39–56, 1999     

A general model for accelerated life testing with time‐dependent covariates

This paper introduces a general or “distribution‐free” model to analyze the lifetime of components under accelerated life testing. Unlike the accelerated failure time (AFT) models, the proposed model shares the advantage of being “distribution‐free” with the proportional hazard (PH) model and overcomes the deficiency of the PH model not allowing survival curves corresponding to different values of a covariate to cross. In this research, we extend and modify the extended hazard regression (EHR) model using the partial likelihood function to analyze failure data with time‐dependent covariates. The new model can be easily adopted to create an accelerated life testing model with different types of stress loading. For example, stress loading in accelerated life testing can be a step function, cyclic, or linear function with time. These types of stress loadings reduce the testing time and increase the number of failures of components under test. The proposed EHR model with time‐dependent covariates which incorporates multiple stress loadings requires further verification. Therefore, we conduct an accelerated life test in the laboratory by subjecting components to time‐dependent stresses, and we compare the reliability estimation based on the developed model with that obtained from experimental results. The combination of the theoretical development of the accelerated life testing model verified by laboratory experiments offers a unique perspective to reliability model building and verification. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 303–321, 1999     

Equivalent accelerated life testing plans for log‐location‐scale distributions

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is widely used to determine the failure time distribution of a product and the associated life‐stress relationship in order to predict the product's reliability under normal operating conditions. Many types of stress loadings such as constant‐stress, step‐stress and cyclic‐stress can be utilized when conducting ALT. Extensive research has been conducted on the analysis of ALT data obtained under a specified stress loading. However, the equivalency of ALT experiments involving different stress loadings has not been investigated. In this article, a log‐location‐scale distribution under Type I censoring is considered in planning ALT. An idea is provided for the equivalency of various ALT plans involving different stress loadings. Based on this idea, general equivalent ALT plans and some special types of equivalent ALT plans are explored. For demonstration, a constant‐stress ALT and a ramp‐stress ALT for miniature lamps are presented and their equivalency is investigated. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Reliability interpretations of some concepts from economics

In a recent article, Chandra and Singpurwalla have pointed out the close relationship between the Lorenz curve, which is frequently used when illustrating income distributions in economics, and the total-time-on-test transform (TTT transform), which has proved to be a very useful tool in reliability. They also presented some characterizations of aging properties by using the Lorenz curve. The purpose of this article is to point out some further results in the same area and to give reliability interpretations of some common measures of income inequality.     

恒定应力加速寿命试验的非参数统计方法

在恒定应力加速寿命试验 (简称恒加试验 )的统计分析中 ,非参数统计方法具有一定的实际价值 .在一定的假定下 ,文中给出了两种新估计 ,并证明了它们的优良性     

Monotone failure rates for multivariate distributions

It is shown that the monotone multivariate failure rates of Brindley and Thompson have no natural analog involving the multivariate failure rate function of Basu for absolutely continuous distributions. Quantities related to the multivariate failure rate function are used to define monotone failure rates. It is shown that these are equivalent to the monotone failure rates of Brindley and Thompson. Based on these quantities, the loss of memory property of Marshall and Olkin is characterized.     

MAD: Mathematical analysis of downtime

The MAD model presents a mathematic treatment of the relationship between aircraft reliability and maintainability, system manning and inspection policies, scheduling and sortie length, and aircraft downtime. Log normal distributions are postulated for subsystem repair times and simultaneous repair of malfunctions is assumed. The aircraft downtime for maintenance is computed with the distribution of the largest of k log normal distributions. Waiting time for maintenance men is calculated either by using a multiple-channel queuing model or by generating the distribution of the number of maintenance men required and comparing this to the number of men available to determine the probability of waiting at each inspection.     

Capacity improvement,penalties, and the fixed charge transportation problem

Capacity improvement and conditional penalties are two computational aides for fathoming subproblems in a branch‐and‐bound procedure. In this paper, we apply these techniques to the fixed charge transportation problem (FCTP) and show how relaxations of the FCTP subproblems can be posed as concave minimization problems (rather than LP relaxations). Using the concave relaxations, we propose a new conditional penalty and three new types of capacity improvement techniques for the FCTP. Based on computational experiments using a standard set of FCTP test problems, the new capacity improvement and penalty techniques are responsible for a three‐fold reduction in the CPU time for the branch‐and‐bound algorithm and nearly a tenfold reduction in the number of subproblems that need to be evaluated in the branch‐and‐bound enumeration tree. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 341–355, 1999     

A model for step‐stress accelerated life testing

Modern technology is producing high reliability products. Life testing for such products under normal use condition takes a lot of time to obtain a reasonable number of failures. In this situation a step‐stress procedure is preferred for accelerated life testing. In this paper we assume a Weibull and Lognormal model whose scale parameter depends upon the present level as well as the age at the entry in the present stress level. On the basis of that we propose a parametric model to the life distribution for step‐stress testing and suggest a suitable design to estimate the parameters involved in the model. A simulation study has been done by the proposed model based on maximum likelihood estimation. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Explicit formulas for the order size and reorder point in certain inventory problems

This study concentrates on distributions of leadtime demand that permit explicit solution to the lot-size, reorder point model. The optimal order size for the general case is first expressed as a function of the economic order quantity and a quantity known as the “residual mean life” in reliability theory. The concept of “no aging” is then utilized to identify a broad class of distributions for which the optimal order size can be determined explicitly, independent of the reorder point.     

A nonparametric approach to accelerated life testing under multiple stresses

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is concerned with subjecting items to a series of stresses at several levels higher than those experienced under normal conditions so as to obtain the lifetime distribution of items under normal levels. A parametric approach to this problem requires two assumptions. First, the lifetime of an item is assumed to have the same distribution under all stress levels, that is, a change of stress level does not change the shape of the life distribution but changes only its scale. Second, a functional relationship is assumed between the parameters of the life distribution and the accelerating stresses. A nonparametric approach, on the other hand, assumes a functional relationship between the life distribution functions at the accelerated and nonaccelerated stress levels without making any assumptions on the forms of the distribution functions. In this paper, we treat the problem nonparametrically. In particular, we extend the methods of Shaked, Zimmer, and Ball [7] and Strelec and Viertl [8] and develop a nonparametric estimation procedure for a version of the generalized Arrhenius model with two stress variables assuming a linear acceleration function. We obtain consistent estimates as well as confidence intervals of the parameters of the life distribution under normal stress level and compare our nonparametric method with parametric methods assuming exponential, Weibull and lognormal life distributions using both real life and simulated data. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 629–644, 1998     

Decomposition-based approximation algorithms for the one-warehouse multi-retailer problem with concave batch order costs

We study the one-warehouse multi-retailer problem under deterministic dynamic demand and concave batch order costs, where order batches have an identical capacity and the order cost function for each facility is concave within the batch. Under appropriate assumptions on holding cost structure, we obtain lower bounds via a decomposition that splits the two-echelon problem into single-facility subproblems, then propose approximation algorithms by judiciously recombining the subproblem solutions. For piecewise linear concave batch order costs with a constant number of slopes we obtain a constant-factor approximation, while for general concave batch costs we propose an approximation within a logarithmic factor of optimality. We also extend some results to subadditive order and/or holding costs.