武器装备体系能力贡献度的解析与度量方法

装备的体系能力贡献度是目前装备发展部门重点关注的问题,它从属于体系能力的研究,是待研装备对体系整体能力作用和影响的度量.在给出贡献度定义的基础上研究了贡献度的复杂性特征,分析了装备对体系能力的影响模式,包括线性模式、非线性模式、比例模式等,分别给出了定义.提出了贡献度多维对比分析方法,给出了基本框架和较为具体的几种测量方法,并通过一个使命任务层的贡献度分析案例对方法进行了说明.     

组织结构复杂性熵尺度评价模型

将熵作为复杂性的度量,给出了管理熵度量与评价管理复杂性的新尺度、方法的基本概念、定义和原理;建立了复杂性度量的数学模型;在信息转化矢量空间、功能矢量空间和结构矢量空间三个复杂性空间的结合上建立一个统一的复杂性空间,结合组织结构复杂性构成因子的建立,构建了复杂性熵尺度评价模型,并运用该模型对某组织结构优化前后的组织结构复杂性进行了评价。结果表明:组织结构优化前每层的结构熵和整体熵均大于优化后的熵,组织结构优化后各层的管理幅度和强度减少,管理效率有了显著提高,从而验证了该评价模型的有效性。     

C3I网络复杂性的度量

从信息过载的角度提出了一种C3I网络复杂性的度量方法,并给出了具体的计算步骤.该度量具有清晰的物理意义,能够直观地反映C3I网络中的信息流的阻塞程度.研究发现,C3I网络的复杂性不仅与网络拓扑结构有关,而且与信息源的信息流产生速度、有向边容量以及传输规则相关,并且C3I网络复杂性度量中存在着突变拐点.最后通过一个案例对提出的C3I网络复杂性的度量方法及步骤进行说明.     

海战复杂性度量研究

为把握现代海战的发展规律,在分析海战复杂性概念的基础上将海战复杂性分为海战结构复杂性和海战行为复杂性进行度量。提出＂点权分布熵＂以度量海战的静态结构复杂性,并运用复杂网络建立模型;提出＂行为熵＂以度量动态的行为复杂性,并从信息质量和决策水平角度建立模型。给出了海战复杂性的度量公式,分析了影响海战复杂性的因素。     

一种基于模糊熵的特征选择算法

特征选择是模式识别中的一个重要组成部分。针对分类边界模糊的样本集,将模糊集的理论应用到特征选择中,通过对特征进行模糊化,定义一种模糊熵来度量特征的分类区分度,再采用相关系数度量特征间的冗余度,建立判定树。则树中的节点即为选择出的特征,树枝为特征的隶属度函数,且通过判定树进行的分类可以实现样本识别的模糊化。     

战争复杂性与复杂体系仿真问题

战争复杂性是体系仿真中必须考虑的重要因素，对体系的仿真必须注意战争复杂性对体系仿真的影响，而不能将体系仿真等同于简单的系统仿真。研究了战争复杂性对体系仿真的影响，讨论了体系仿真研究中的定义、建模和实验等关键问题，并给出在体系仿真研究中需要关注的体系基础理论、平行体系建模、大尺度模型、探索性分析仿真实验等趋势。     

基于支持向量机的制造系统静态复杂性综合模型研究

制造系统复杂性对优化制造系统结构设计、提高制造系统的生产效率具有非常重要的意义.然而目前对静态复杂性及动态复杂性影响因素复杂性及其测度的研究较多,对于如何将这些分因素复杂性进行综合得出综合复杂性的研究较少,这直接影响了复杂性研究结果的准确性。鉴于此,引入擅长处理小样本数据的支持向量机对制造系统静态复杂性进行综合,用遗传算法对其参数进行寻优,对模型的有效性进行了验证,结果说明方法的实用性与科学性较强.     

陆军作战复杂系统ABMS机理研究

研究陆军作战复杂系统,需要解决两个不可回避的基本问题。一是怎样利用复杂性理论研究陆军作战系统的复杂性,即怎样借鉴复杂性理论构建复杂性思维模式。要解决这个问题,首先必须弄清复杂性理论概念的核心原理。二是在复杂性思维模式下,怎样进行陆军作战复杂系统的ABMS。要解决这个问题,首先必须弄清陆军作战复杂系统ABMS的机理所在。就这两个问题,在研究复杂性理论概念核心原理的基础上,构建了复杂性思维模式框架——复杂性分析二维结构,并由此探索了陆军作战复杂系统ABMS的机理:二维结构、"四个要素"、基本过程和陆战Agent模型框架,为陆军作战复杂系统的ABMS奠定了基础。     

系统决策建模与理性分析

本文以系统科学理论为依据,从系统科学基本命题出发,根据系统论关于“系统”的定义及有关“决策”的概念,给出了“系统决策”的定义,建立了系统决策问题的概念模型,并对系统决策理性及系统决策概念模型进行分析研究。     

一种新型军事装备系统弹性混合度量方法

军事装备系统弹性反映了军事装备在遭受故障或攻击情况下,系统能够适应和吸收扰动,并使其性能得以恢复的能力,能够用于衡量在强对抗环境中军事装备性能的发挥情况.在研究军事装备系统故障率、故障修复率、故障修复时间、系统性能降级程度等基础上,结合军事装备系统的特殊性,给出了军事装备系统弹性的定义.分析确定型度量和概率型度量的优缺点,结合军事装备系统自身特点和对构成系统弹性各组成部分的重要性分析,给出了 一种混合型弹性度量方法.对某军事装备系统案例进行了弹性建模,并对相关弹性参数进行了灵敏度分析,给出了军事装备系统在遂行任务中如何更好地应对强对抗环境的解决建议.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

SIM—LISP:一个通信网络管理专家系统外壳的设计与实现

本文介绍了笔者为开发名为OONMES的网络管理专家系统所实现的一个简单专家系统工具SIM-LISP。SIM-LISP是一个用C/C++语言来实现的模拟LISP语言的可调用函数集,它短小精巧,速度快,可以完成针对网管专家系统的事实或规则知识的表示、匹配、合一和推理等基本操作,并有与知识对象的连接功能,是网管专家系统内核实现的支撑环境。     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Al Qaida on the US invasion of Afghanistan in their own words

This article consists of selected translations from captured interviews and dairies of Al Qaida members. The time period covered is from mid-2001 to early 2002 and concerns their operations in Afghanistan. The material clearly conveys a range of emotion, from confident to despondent, as well as efforts to contest the US actions. The first several pages give the reader context and some possible “lessons learned,” but the story(ies) are best told by the Al Qaida members themselves. All names are pseudonyms.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.