基于PCA-RBF网络的储运过程管道堵塞故障诊断方法

针对现代储运过程管道堵塞故障诊断时,提取的过程参数多导致诊断速度慢、性能差等问题,提出了基于主成分分析（PCA）和径向基函数（RBF）神经网络故障的诊断方法。首先利用PCA方法对储运过程高维历史数据矩阵进行特征提取,提取的故障特征信息作为训练集,并给出故障特征信息的分类号;然后将其作为RBF神经网络分类器的输入输出进行故障模式识别。仿真实验表明：该方法应用于储运过程管道堵塞故障诊断,不仅大幅度地降低了诊断模型的训练时间,而且提高了诊断正确率。     

基于PCA-SVM的储运过程故障诊断方法

针对储运过程工艺复杂、监控变量多且故障样本数据相对有限的问题,在介绍主元分析原理和支持向量机方法的基础上,提出了主元分析与支持向量机相结合的储运过程故障诊断方法,建立了提高故障诊断速度和诊断性能的故障诊断模型。首先采用主元分析法进行特征提取实现降维,其次构造新的训练和测试样本集,最后训练支持向量机分类器的故障诊断流程。以数字化油库为仿真实验对象,进行了油料收发过程中的故障诊断实验,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

航天器推进系统气液路故障仿真

为了研究和分析航天器推进系统气液路故障的发展变化规律及对整个推进系统性能的影响,在某挤压式航天器推进系统仿真模型的基础上,分别采用Realizable k-ε湍流模型和一维可压缩流模型对气路泄漏和堵塞故障进行动态仿真,采用一维不可压瞬变管流模型与变流量系数模型对液路泄漏和堵塞故障进行仿真分析。仿真结果表明:推进系统增压气路堵塞和泄漏故障,会导致增压不足,使推进剂供应管路压强下降;推进剂供应管路堵塞故障和泄漏故障会导致混合比偏离设计值,使推进系统性能降低。两类故障都会引起推力不足,致使系统性能降低。两者的不同之处在于:堵塞故障下,故障组件上游压强高于额定工况,推进剂消耗低于额定工况;泄漏故障下,故障组件上游压强低于额定工况,推进剂消耗高于额定工况。     

船用蒸汽发生器传热管破损事故研究

综合应用事件树分析和确定论分析方法,建立船用蒸汽发生器传热管破损事故动态分析模型;基于运行安全分析研究选用典型事件序列,并利用仿真应用平台对该模型进行了仿真计算分析;明确了故事的发展过程和处置措施,以及多重故障和人工干预等因素对事故的影响结果.该研究结果对该事故操作规程的制定有一定的指导意义.     

虚拟维修训练中故障建模与仿真

在分析维修训练需求、仿真方法的基础上,建立由故障现象、维修对象、故障传播有向图组成的故障模型,并研究了虚拟环境中检测特征数据的建立、故障现象的模拟及仿真运行流程,利用Virtools实现了典型故障的建模与仿真,较好地完成了故障现象和数据的实时生成,为维修人员提供了良好的观察与检测故障的虚拟维修环境。     

一种基于层次模型的卫星故障动态仿真方法

针对卫星静态仿真方法未实现故障时序发展过程及影响范围仿真的问题,在故障仿真方法进行分析的基础上,提出了一种基于层次模型的动态故障仿真方法,即通过建立不同层级的故障模型,利用动态仿真推进方法实现故障的时序发展过程仿真.此方法能够有效提高故障仿真的精细化程度,为故障处置提供支撑.通过某卫星能源安全模式故障仿真,对方法的有效...     

基于聚类主成分分析法的变压器参数关联度评估

为了有效管理和监测电力变压器的健康状态,在对变压器正常运行的海量数据进行分析的基础上,构建变压器参数关联度评估方法。首先,为了对变压器运行参数进行参数分类定性,基于系统聚类的方法构建变压器参数样本分类流程算法,并设计了相应的流程图;然后,通过引入聚类以及主成分分析方法,建立基于聚类的主成分分析的变压器主要影响参数关联度评估模型;最后通过潼南电力局实际运行数据验证模型的可靠性和有效性,准确分析了变压器运行参数之间的定量关系,可以为变压器故障预测研究提供重要依据。     

脉冲功率电源故障诊断方法研究

脉冲功率电源是电磁发射系统中最容易发生故障的薄弱环节,脉冲功率电源故障会使整个系统性能下降。针对脉冲功率电源故障,提出基于多层小波分析提取故障信息的模式搜索支持向量机故障诊断方法。通过建立脉冲功率电源的软故障模型,进行仿真分析获得电流故障数据样本,对故障样本进行离散小波分解,获得指定层细节信息的小波系数作为故障特征量;对故障特征量进行主成分分析,将小波系数进行降维,以便有效地进行故障诊断。通过实验,将所提方法故障诊断结果与其他三种故障诊断结果进行比较,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

基于数字孪生的航天发射塔摆杆机构故障诊断研究

针对因历史故障数据不足,缺少规范的故障数据收集机制和成熟的质量监测管理技术手段,大型复杂机电液系统性能状态难以准确评估的问题,以发射塔电缆摆杆作为典型机构,研究并提出了一种基于数字孪生技术的故障诊断方法。该方法以数字孪生系统“五维模型”理论为基础,构建了摆杆系统数字孪生架构体系;运用UG软件,通过几何运动学和动力学建模,建立了虚拟仿真模型,设计了基于ADAMS和Matlab联合仿真的数字孪生系统。该系统通过仿真信号与实测信号的对比,表明其对于物理实体的模拟仿真精度可达96%。最后,通过典型喘行故障试验,修改虚拟模型有关参数进行仿真,验证基于数字孪生体对摆杆机构故障诊断的有效性,以及利用其论证维修改进方案的可行性。     

基于系统构型替换的固冲发动机故障模式半实物仿真

为全面快速验证冲压发动机的故障检测算法，基于构型替换建立了能模拟多种固冲发动机故障的仿真验证平台。基于此平台，搭建了发动机点火故障模型、压强传感器故障模型、设备接口模型，以及与真实控制器中检测算法具有相同外部接口和系统构型的故障检测算法模型等。通过系统构型的切换，将同一个故障模式注入故障检测算法模型和真实发动机系统，并通过对比同一组故障模式下故障检测模型检测结果与发动机控制系统检测结果，来对发动机控制器中的故障检测算法进行快速验证。以无喷管助推器点火的检测为例，讲述了该方法的建模、实验验证及分析过程，此外，该方法还能应用到无喷管助推器关机、进气道前后堵盖打开、燃气发生器点火、燃气流量容错控制等多个故障模式的仿真模拟与验证，具有很强的通用性，能大大地降低控制系统开发与验证的时间成本，具有很强的应用价值。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.