基于不确定多属性决策的空中目标威胁评估技术

针对现有空中目标威胁评估方法存在的不足,提出了一种基于不确定多属性决策的威胁评估技术,建立了威胁评估的属性体系,考虑了目标战术机动和指挥员主观决策对威胁程度的影响,分析了属性最优权重的求取方法,给出了基于区间数相对优势度的目标威胁排序方法.最后给出了一个应用实例,实例证明,该技术合理有效,评估结果准确,能有效减小误差.     

基于模糊理论的空袭目标威胁判断模型

对空袭目标威胁度进行合理排序是提高防空效能的重要因素。分析了影响空袭目标威胁度的各种因素,利用模糊综合评判的思想,建立了一种进行目标威胁判断的模型,并根据具体情况给出了排序的合理方法。通过实例,给出了具体的计算过程,并将此方法得出的结果与文献中的方法得出的结果进行了比较,充分说明了模型的可行性。     

基于空中目标态势和作战能力的威胁评估算法

对空中目标进行威胁评估和目标分配是阵地防空指挥中心的一项重要工作,威胁评估的准确性将对防空作战的结局产生重大的影响。提出了一种新的威胁评估算法,在综合考虑空中目标态势和作战能力的前提下,分析了影响目标威胁评估的几个因素,并结合装备的战斗性能建立各函数的威胁度隶属函数,求出目标威胁度和排序,最后给出软件流程。     

空中目标威胁评估技术

对空中目标进行威胁评估是防空C3I数据融合系统中非常重要的一个模块,威胁评估准确程度将对防空作战的结局产生重大影响。文中首先构建了威胁评估的指标体系,基于模糊隶属函数对各指标进行了量化处理。然后在分析威胁隶属度构成的向量满足比较序列的前提下,应用灰色关联度分析对空中目标进行威胁评估与排序。最后给出了一个实例,得到的结果与专家群体评议后的结果完全一致。     

基于组合权重的灰色目标威胁评估

对空中来袭目标的威胁评估能为指挥员判断战场态势、合理分配火力单元提供有效的参考。目标的威胁评估需要得到雷达等传感器获取的相关信息,通过一定的算法,给出目标的威胁度排序。然而由于传感器获取的信息具有一定程度上的不确定性,完全依赖客观信息,往往与事实产生偏差。为此提出了一种主客观组合赋权的评估模型,对评估指标进行差异化赋权,在评估模型中加入指挥决策人员的经验影响,最后利用灰色理想关联法得到最终的威胁度排序。     

模糊交叉迭代法的空战威胁度评估排序方法

在目标属性权重未知的情况下,综合考虑模糊最小隶属度原则、模糊最大隶属度原则以及考虑人为主观知识经验和偏好的情况,给出一种运用模糊交叉迭代法对多目标进行评估和排序,进行了仿真计算,并与基于熵权的威胁度评估排序方法进行比较,结果表明该算法是合理和有效的.     

灰靶理论的空中目标威胁评估与排序

对空中目标的威胁程度进行科学的评估与排序是防空指挥的重要环节,是防空指挥员进行火力分配的主要依据,也是防空指挥自动化系统的重要功能之一.灰靶理论是处理模式序列的灰关联分析理论,其核心概念是靶心度,可以依据靶心度进行模式分级.分析了影响空中目标威胁程度的主要因素,并基于灰靶理论建立了空中目标威胁评估与排序的数学模型,提出了应用灰靶理论进行威胁评估与排序的方法,为防空指挥员进行科学决策提供了理论依据.     

基于集对分析的目标威胁评估与排序研究

在分析以往目标威胁评估与排序方法不足的基础上,提出了基于集对分析的多因素威胁评估方法,以定量的结果对目标的威胁程度进行综合评估,为威胁评估与排序问题寻求出一种新的方法,其评估结果可为指挥员对空情威胁做出正确判断提供科学依据。     

基于不确定语言多属性决策的目标威胁度排序

针对影响不同类目标威胁度的因素建立了目标威胁度指标体系,并在此基础上,利用不确定语言多属性决策模型对不同类目标威胁度进行排序。该方法不仅充分体现了不同类目标威胁度的影响因素,还充分利用了专家和决策人员的经验,能较好地反映现代战场中目标威胁度的实际情况,利于提高智能化程度;模型适应性较强,计算量小,符合军事系统实时性的特殊要求,使评估结果更具有可信性和实用性。     

基于Vague集投影及距离的空中目标威胁评估方法

针对已有空中目标威胁评估方法存在的不足,提出一种基于Vague集投影及距离的威胁评估新方法。分析并确定了空中目标威胁因素中的评估指标,给出了评价指标的Vague值表示方法。在此基础上,应用Vague集投影及距离的多属性模糊决策理论,建立了空中目标威胁评估的数学模型,给出了目标威胁的排序方法。最后通过实例分析验证,该方法评估结果准确,对指挥员科学决策具有一定的参考价值。     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Cyberpower in Strategic Affairs: Neither Unthinkable nor Blessed

Abstract

This article explores the effect of connectivity on strategic affairs. It argues that the effect on war's character is potentially, although not yet shown in practice, considerably large. Its effect upon the distribution of power among states in the international system is small, contrary to the claims of ‘cyberwar’ alarmists. All told, however, its effect upon strategic affairs is complex. On the one hand, it represents a significant advance in the ‘complexification’ of state strategies, understood in the sense of the production of intended effects. On the other hand, strategists today – still predominantly concerned with the conflicts and confrontations of states and organised military power – are generally missing the power which non-traditional strategic actors, better adapted to the network flows of the information age, are beginning to deploy. These new forms of organization and coercion will challenge the status quo.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.