大深度无动力运载器弹道散布影响因素分析

潜射导弹无动力运载器弹道散布特性是导弹后续弹道和运载器分离体水下散布的重要影响因素,决定其散布的主要因素有初始弹道参数和海洋环境扰动等.建立了运载器空间运动数学模型,利用数理统计中的正交试验法安排实验,对不同工况下运载器上浮弹道进行仿真,通过极差分析确定影响因素的主次关系,利用方差分析法和F检验确定影响因素的显著性.仿真结果表明:横向海流对弹道散布半径影响显著,绕x和y轴的初始角速度及横向海流对位移影响不显著.研究结果可以为弹道规划和运载器加工制造提供一定参考.     

波浪作用下水下航行体出水成功概率预报

为了实现实测波浪作用下水下航行体出水成功概率预报,为潜艇作战提供一种水下发射的快速预报方法,基于边界元方法建立了水下航行体出水姿态计算模型,对不同波浪条件下水下航行体出水姿态参数进行了计算。同时,将不同波浪条件下的出水姿态参数进行集成,形成了规则波浪数据库。以渤海湾某时间段的实测海况作为发射环境,建立符合瑞利分布的波高概率分布模型,将尾部触水俯仰角作为判定条件,对实测波浪下水下航行体出水成功概率进行预报。计算结果表明,在考虑最恶劣工况下,相对于静水条件下的出水俯仰角偏差随着波高的增加而减小;相同波高下,受到出水相位的影响,出水俯仰角偏差呈余弦变化规律。该预报方法对于潜艇作战判定发射时机具有一定参考价值,为水下发射的成功概率预报提供参考。     

基于台风条件下海浪水压场建模仿真

为了研究特定海况等级和台风风级条件下的海洋环境水压场特征,并建立准确的物理场信号模型,首先验证了SWAN(simulating waves nearshore)模式推算台风浪的有效性,通过SWAN模式获取台风条件下某海域的海浪谱,并根据海浪谱密度求其海浪振幅谱;然后,由海浪振幅谱得到了海底压力振幅谱及压力功率密度谱、海底固定点水压场压力-时间历程。仿真结果表明:该模型可以将研究海况等级数由4级推广至8级,且在8级海况条件下的海浪水压场值最大可达12 kPa,有助于高海况条件下对水中装备进行性能测试。     

潜射导弹无动力运载器规避弹道仿真

基于无动力运载器规避弹道方案的可行性,建立了潜射导弹无动力运载器水弹道数学模型和海流模型,运用模拟退火法优化得出满足出水约束条件的预设偏航角可行域,并分别对艇速和海流影响下的规避弹道进行了仿真研究。仿真结果表明,发射艇速对规避弹道影响较为微弱;在预设偏航角可行域内偏航角越大,偏移距离则越大,且与规避方向相同的海流增大了预设偏航角可行域,使规避任务更容易实现,而方向相反的海流很可能对规避弹道产生颠覆性影响。仿真结论具有重要的工程参考价值。     

小型固体运载器一、二级分离动力学与仿真研究

某低成本小型固体运载器采用侧喷流和栅格舵联合进行姿态控制。针对该布局,设计引入闭环姿态控制的一、二级级间冷分离方案。在描述级间分离过程的基础上,建立了分离运动学与动力学模型,解锁与分离冲量装置模型,气动力模型以及分离姿态控制律模型,讨论了碰撞判断条件,通过Monte Carlo仿真验证了参数不确定条件下分离姿态控制律设计对于避免碰撞和减小上面级初始姿态偏差的有效性。结果表明所设计的分离方案在充分发挥冷分离优势的同时能够弥补由冷分离时间长引起的上面级初始姿态偏差,能够有效避免级间碰撞。为该运载器的级间分离方案提供了一种可能的选择。     

蒙特卡洛法在火箭简控系统设计中的应用

建立了火箭弹道仿真模型。用蒙特卡洛法对简控火箭在无控条件下进行了模拟打靶。从其所有成功子样中统计出了火箭运动参数在主动段一系列时间点上的容许偏差。分别以上述时间点为起点，综合考虑运动参数偏差及其它随机偏差的影响，对落点散布进行了仿真分析。找出了合适的简控时间终点及其运动参数容许的偏差范围，为简控系统的设计提供了直接依据。     

拖曳系统的水翼控制运动模型及仿真

针对水下拖曳系统深度难以实现精确控制的问题,提出并建立了基于水翼控制的水下拖曳系统运动模型,其中拖缆和拖体的动力学模型分别采用了有限差分法和水下运载器的六自由度运动方程。在此基础上,使用数值计算方法,实现了水下拖曳系统三维的运动响应分析,并运用PID方法控制水翼攻角,达到了对拖体目标深度的控制。仿真结果验证了这一运动模型的正确性,为进一步实现水下拖曳系统在各种复杂的海洋环境和船舶机动影响下的定深控制研究奠定了理论基础。     

海上间瞄射击控制技术分析和仿真

针对自行火炮海上自动间瞄瞄准问题,分析了海浪对火炮身管扰动的规律,建立了相应的数学模型,对火炮随动系统进行了功率需求分析和优化设计,并在特定海况条件下进行了仿真。分析和仿真结果表明,在现有火炮的基础上,针对海浪扰动适当增加随动系统的输出功率,对随动系统进行改进设计,根据火炮位置变化实时更新射击诸元,可以使火炮在海浪扰动条件下达到间瞄射击所要求的瞄准精度。     

基于工程设计法的射程优化

射程是弹道导弹的重要性能指标,飞行程序选择对充分发挥导弹运载能力,提高射程具有重要影响。针对此问题,利用工程设计法的实现容易、计算量少的优点,将以飞行程序为设计对象的最优控制泛函问题转化为参数优化问题。在此基础上,建立弹道运动模型和优化模型,并应用粒子群算法进行参数优化,求解最大射程弹道。结果表明,基于工程设计法的射程优化简单可行,利用粒子群算法得到的优化参数对改善射程有显著效果,充分发挥了导弹的运载能力。而运载能力的提高对提高导弹武器的目标覆盖范围起到重要作用。     

舰船动力定位系统切换控制器的设计与分析

为应对不断变化的海洋环境,提高舰船动力定位系统对不确定参数的鲁棒性,基于切换系统理论,设计了切换控制器。建立了舰船数学模型,并分别在4种海况下设计不同的PID控制器和无源观测器,通过引入尺度无关迟滞开关逻辑算法,根据实测海况参数,在不同控制器、观测器之间进行切换,从而选出合适的控制器和观测器。在MATLAB上对一实际舰船模型进行仿真,分别比较切换控制器与实际应用中的最优控制器在变化海况下的性能,结果显示在不断变化的海况下切换控制器仍能有效进行动力定位作业,而最优控制器在恶劣海况下变得不稳定,仿真结果表明所设计切换控制器提高了舰船动力定位系统的鲁棒性。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.