多输出性能下的重要性测度指标及其求解方法

针对基于马氏距离的重要性测度存在的问题,提出了基于谱分解加权摩尔彭罗斯马氏距离的重要性测度指标,通过构造多输出协方差阵的广义逆矩阵以及谱分解的策略,有效解决了协方差阵求逆奇异情况以及由于未能充分考虑多输出之间的相互关系而导致的错误识别重要变量的问题,克服了基于马氏距离指标的局限性。数值算例与工程算例结果表明:所提重要性测度可以更加准确地获得输入变量对结构系统多输出性能随机取值特征贡献的排序,从而为可靠性设计提供充分的信息。     

舰艇队形识别目标选择算法

根据反舰导弹自控终点散布、末制导雷达方位探测误差、舰艇队形和散布,推导建立了正态判据总体的均值向量和协方差矩阵,并描述了如何应用马氏距离判别法和判据总体从舰艇编队中识别选择出所装订目标的算法流程。对算例的仿真结果表明队形识别目标选择算法优于传统目标选择算法。     

主方差分析方法

该文提出一种对高维随机向量 X=( x1 ,x2 ,… ,xp)′p× 1 进行降维处理的实用方法 ,其基本思想是利用矩阵的扫描运算 ,构造 X的很少几个综合指标 (称为主方差变量 )以反映 X的统计特性。给出了该方法的理论依据和直观解释以及算法。特别指出 ,当变量 X多重相关性突出时 ,该文方法显著地优于主成分分析方法。     

一种基于知识辅助的MIMO-STAP抗干扰算法北大核心

针对有源干扰环境下机载MIMO雷达的杂波抑制问题,利用预白化的思想,提出了一种基于知识辅助的MIMO-STAP抗干扰算法——KA-J-STAP方法,首先利用载机平台运动参数、雷达系统参数、干扰方位等先验信息构造相关协方差矩阵,后利用相关协方差矩阵对接收数据进行预白化,对杂波和噪声预置零,对于预白化后的数据空时自适应处理。仿真结果表明,相比于未采用知识辅助的算法,所提KA-J-STAP算法在干扰环境下仍能保持较好的杂波抑制性能。     

一种基于知识辅助的MIMO-STAP抗干扰算法

针对有源干扰环境下机载MIMO雷达的杂波抑制问题,利用预白化的思想,提出了一种基于知识辅助的MIMO-STAP抗干扰算法——KA-J-STAP方法,首先利用载机平台运动参数、雷达系统参数、干扰方位等先验信息构造相关协方差矩阵,后利用相关协方差矩阵对接收数据进行预白化,对杂波和噪声预置零,对于预白化后的数据空时自适应处理。仿真结果表明,相比于未采用知识辅助的算法,所提KA-J-STAP算法在干扰环境下仍能保持较好的杂波抑制性能。     

基于主成分分析法的目标威胁评估

为提高防空作战指挥员对空中来袭目标实施火力分配的量化决策水平,本文提出了基于主成分分析法的目标威胁评估模型及方法。主成分分析法在将原始变量转变为主成分过程中,同时形成了反映主成分的权数以计算综合评价值,这样在指标权重选择上克服了主观因素的影响,客观反映了各指标因素间的现实关系。通过引入实例,对来袭空中目标进行多指标综合评价,根据综合评估值对各批目标威胁进行排序,所得结果合理且符合客观实际,切实为防空作战指挥员科学合理地实施火力分配提供了数据支持和科学依据。     

基于主成分分析法的作战部队信息化水平评估研究

为了客观准确地评估各作战部队的信息化水平,针对目前作战部队信息化发展建设水平评估方法难、评估指标体系变量多的特点,依据建立的评估指标体系,运用主成分分析法的基本思想,建立数学模型,列出分析步骤,计算各作战部队信息化水平的主成分,通过对主成分进行选择,综合得出新的评估指标变量,实现了更加快捷、直观地对作战部队信息化水平进行评估,有利于正确引导军队信息化建设的方向。     

基于主成分分析的区域装备保障能力评估方法

针对区域装备保障能力评价问题,提出基于主成分分析的区域装备保障能力评价方法.该方法利用主成分分析法,在数据信息丢失最少的原则下,对区域装备保障多指标变量空间进行降维处理,用主成分解释资料的综合性指标,用以评价区域装备保障能力.建立了区域的装备保障能力的指标体系,建立基于主成分分析的评估模型,通过算例证明方法的有效性.     

马氏综合权重距离判别法在中小型滑坡灾害评估中的应用

我国西南地区滑坡灾害具有点多面广、规模小、危害大的特点,群测群防是目前中小型滑坡灾害最为有效的预防手段。针对这种现状,为进一步完善群测群防体系,在马氏距离判别法和加权马氏距离判别法的基础上对权重值进行了修正改进,提出了一种新的判别分析方法——马氏综合权重距离判别法。该方法不仅保留了加权马氏距离判别中区分每一个指标重要性差异的优势,并且结合德尔菲法对权重值进一步修正,弥补了原来加权马氏距离法在判别过程中距离函数出现负值的不足。从本质上来说,这种方法是把由样本驱动的权重值和实际工程经验的权重值相结合,使权重值的取值更加符合实际。以该方法为基础,在一定的历史资料背景下,从滑坡致灾因素和孕灾因素考虑,选取适当的判别因子,建立判别模型,对未知潜在滑坡灾害进行判别归类,并且与马氏距离判别法和Fisher判别法比较。研究发现,马氏综合权重距离判别法具有更高的可靠度和判别精度,适于在群测群防体系中进一步推广使用。     

基于主成分分析法的护航行动海面目标威胁评估

在护航行动中识别海盗船是护航行动中的重要问题。针对护航行动中海面目标威胁评估问题,对护航海区海面目标进行了分析,构造了护航海区海面目标评估指标体系,采用主成分分析方法建立了海面目标威胁评估模型,并给出了海面目标威胁评估应把握的几个问题。主成分分析方法通过降维避免多个指标变量所带来的评估问题的复杂性,克服了指标权重选择的主观因素影响,为快速准确寻找疑似海盗船只,提前采取防护措施提供有效途径。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.