基于仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计

针对竞争失效产品加速寿命试验存在试验时间长、费用高、效率低的问题,提出了一种基于Monte-Carlo仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计方法.采用Monte-Carlo对步降加速寿命试验进行仿真模拟,以正常使用应力下的p阶分位寿命渐进方差估计最小为目标,以各试验应力水平及对应应力下的试验截尾数作为设计变量,采用MIE理论进行统计分析,建立了基于仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计模型.最后,通过实例分析表明:该方法具有可行性、有效性.     

恒定应力部分加速寿命试验的可靠性分析

基于定时区间删失样本,研究了指数分布产品在恒定应力部分加速寿命试验下的参数估计。利用EM算法得到了分布参数和加速因子的迭代方程。根据Louis提出的缺失信息原则计算了Fisher信息矩阵。由极大似然估计的渐近正态性,构造出分布参数和加速因子的近似置信区间。通过Monte Carlo模拟,从平均相对误差和均方误差两方面对估计量进行了计算,结果表明所有的估计量都具有大样本性质。最后通过模拟样本,计算了不同应力水平下分布参数、加速因子和可靠度的估计。     

某新型榴弹引信加速寿命试验设计

通过对影响某新型榴弹引信长储失效的主要环境因素（温度和湿度）分析,得出其寿命服从威布尔分布,双环境应力下满足阿伦尼斯模型。用恒定应力加速寿命试验方法计算出双环境应力下威布尔分布的过渡参数、形状参数、尺寸参数等值,从而估算出某新型榴弹引信长储失效规律。     

考虑外场差异的步进加速寿命数据可靠性评估方法

针对寿命服从双参数Weibull分布的机电产品,进行单应力、定时转换的步进加速寿命试验,研究加速寿命试验数据下的可靠性评估问题。考虑到外场多应力环境与实验室单一应力环境之间的差异性,构建基于修正系数的分布参数计算模型;开展步进加速寿命试验过程的统计分析,建立各应力下的累计分布函数关系;构建极大似然函数,运用数值迭代法,求解未知参数估计;结合某型机电产品进行仿真方案设计,采用Monte Carlo仿真方法产生样本数据,通过对比分析说明所提出的模型评估精度更高。     

随机截尾场合下Weibull分布恒加寿命试验的统计分析

在随机截尾场合下,研究Weibull分布恒定应力加速寿命试验的统计分析问题。运用最大似然估计法和最小二乘法,推导出加速系数的估计,利用加速寿命模型给出正常应力水平下各种可靠性特征量的估计。     

基于步进加速寿命试验的制导弹药储存寿命评估

介绍步进应力加速寿命试验原理,通过对制导弹药自动导引头贮存状态和失效机理的分析,确定了加速寿命试验应力和应力水平．假设产品寿命服从威布尔分布,应用极大似然估计和Bayes的方法处理数据,建立制导弹药可靠储存寿命预测模型,并计算得到自动导引头在正常应力水平下的可靠储存寿命．     

Weibull分布竞争失效产品简单步加试验的优化设计

在逐步Type-Ⅰ混合截尾场合下,研究竞争失效产品简单步进应力加速寿命试验的优化设计。假定产品寿命服从双参数Weibull分布,在形状参数和尺度参数都未知的情形下,得到相应的Fisher信息矩阵,以极大似然渐近方差最小为准则结合Fisher信息矩阵,给出了步进应力加速寿命试验的最优应力转换时间。最后利用Monte-Carlo方法进行数值模拟,并对模拟结果进行了分析。     

序降应力加速寿命试验(上)——试验分析篇

加速寿命试验是高可靠长寿命型产品的量化评估的重要途径,广泛应用于武器装备的定寿延寿课题中。为了进一步提高加速寿命试验的效率,提出一种新的试验方法——序降应力加速寿命试验。通过理论模型建立、试验数据分析和蒙特卡罗仿真对该方法的有效性进行分析。研究结果表明,在相同的试验环境下序降应力加速寿命试验方法不但能大幅度提高试验效率,同时还能提高试验分析精度。因此,在武器装备的定寿延寿课题中,序降应力加速寿命试验值得推广。     

加速寿命试验研究综述

在国防武器设备和民用工业等领域,高可靠、长寿命产品被大量研发和生产,因而可以提前暴露该类产品薄弱环节的加速寿命试验技术得到了广泛研究和应用。介绍了加速寿命试验技术常用的试验类型和寿命分布,阐述了基于不同寿命分布的加速寿命试验数据统计方法,对新兴的步降应力加速寿命试验技术和加速寿命试验优化设计方法的研究状况进行了总结和分析,对未来加速寿命试验技术在军用后勤装备领域的研究进行了展望。     

一种新的Weibull分布恒定应力加速寿命试验分析方法

分析了Weibull分布恒定应力加速寿命试验常用的二步分析方法存在的不足 ,建立了一种新的构造数据分析方法。考虑到分布参数的相关性 ,该方法引入了Weibull分布特征寿命参数的二次估计 ,在模型拟合优度上高于原来的二步分析方法 ,使分析精度得到了改善。同时 ,该方法避免了原来二步分析方法的查表过程 ,便于软件实现和工程实际应用。     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.