Mimetic and normative isomorphism in the establishment and maintenance of independent air forces

Why do countries have air forces? Organizational alternatives, such as maintaining separate air arms for the army and navy, have become quite rare. The conventional narrative advanced by advocates of independent air forces stress that the primacy of airpower in modern warfare mandates centralized control of most military aviation. In this view, political–military uncertainty has driven mimetic isomorphism – pressure on national governments to organize as others organize so as to fight or deter war just as effectively. However, working from a set of 56 countries that were politically independent within a few years of the establishment of the first ever independent air force (the Royal Air Force) in 1918, and continuing through nearly the present, there is no clear pattern of external military pressure prompting this particular reorganization. Rather, from anecdotal evidence, the cause has more likely been normative isomorphism – a professional craving to look as others look to foster political or personal legitimacy. For whatever reason, though, choices of structures tend to lead to specific choices of policies. Thus, the result suggests that defense ministries looking for more effective or less costly organizational schemas may reasonably consider alternatives to the tripartite army–navy–air force structure.     

Militias as sociopolitical movements: Lessons from Iraq's armed Shia groups

The Shia militia has emerged as one of the most powerful and important actors in the Middle East security environment. Despite this trend, they remain poorly understood by scholars and policymakers alike. This article seeks to expand our understanding of the militia as a type of non-state armed group through an examination of Shia militia movements in Iraq between 2003 and 2009. More than simply warlords, paramilitaries, or foreign proxies, Shia militias in Iraq enjoyed substantial popular legitimacy, pursued a broad social and political agenda, and participated actively in the formal institutions of the state. Understanding the triangular relationship between the militia, the state, and the population is essential in explaining the rise and fall of the Shia militias during the US occupation as well as in developing strategies to deal with their most recent resurgence     

叶片式MRF减振器阻尼力矩模型的建立

MRF阻尼器具有体积小、能耗低、阻尼力连续可调等优点,是一种对结构实施半主动控制的理想装置,将其用于履带式车辆悬挂系统,可以提高车辆的越野机动性能。介绍了一种以传统叶片式液压减振器为基础设计的叶片式MRF减振器。基于流体的平行板流动模型和MRF的Bingham模型,建立了叶片式MRF减振器的阻尼力矩计算模型。计算结果表明,不加磁场时,叶片式MRF减振器具有与传统叶片式液压减振器相近的阻尼特性,加磁场时,减振器可获得较大的阻尼可调倍数。     

Does Spoiling Work? Assessing the Impact of Spoilers on Civil War Peace Agreements

Scholars and policymakers argue that violent actors – termed ‘spoilers’ – pose a significant threat to civil war peace agreements. Yet existing research, which is overly reliant on single-case studies, has not effectively determined how prevalent spoiling is, or thoroughly examined what its ultimate effects are on peace agreements. This article draws on a newly constructed cross-national dataset of spoiling following 241 civil war peace agreements in the post-Cold War era to analyze spoiling. It finds that spoiling intended to terminate an agreement is not as common as typically assumed, but still plagues a sizeable number of peace agreements. Moreover, most actors who resort to this strategy typically fail in their goals and the agreement is not at risk, despite the high publicity and attention given to these threats. Yet particular types of actors, most notably paramilitaries and state security forces excluded from the agreement, can pose a significant threat to peace.     

Evaluation of force structures under uncertainty

A model, for assessing the effectiveness of alternative force structures in an uncertain future conflict, is presented and exemplified. The methodology is appropriate to forces (e.g., the attack submarine force) where alternative unit types may be employed, albeit at differing effectiveness, in the same set of missions. Procurement trade-offs, and in particular the desirability of special purpose units in place of some (presumably more expensive) general purpose units, can be addressed by this model. Example calculations indicate an increase in the effectiveness of a force composed of general purpose units, relative to various mixed forces, with increase in the uncertainty regarding future conflicts.     

平面杆系结构内力包络图仿真优化与编程

讨论受任意集中力、集中力偶和线性分布力等复杂移动荷载作用下的平面杆系结构内力包络图仿真优化技术。借助平面杆系结构分析软件Vsap2011,分析了单元截面离散方式和荷载移动步长对内力包络图求解精度的影响。研究表明:为了获得较高的内力包络图求解精度,对于移动荷载经过的单元,截面必须按步细分;对于活载任意布置的单元,截面必须在荷载作用点之间再插入足够多的分点;对于不受荷载的单元,两端刚结的必须按距离细分,而含有一个以上铰结点的不必细分。此外,在步长接近或相差不大的情况下,如果步长既能整除荷载队列的间距,又能整除载荷载通过单元的长度,那么就可以提高内力包络图的求解精度。如果将单元长度和荷载队列间距的最大公约数作为步长,既可获得较高的内力包络图求解精度,又可大大节省计算机时。     

Turning gangsters into allies: the American way of war in Northern Afghanistan

ABSTRACT

The American way of war in Afghanistan presents a conundrum for proponents of 21st-century state-building projects. How can liberal peace proponents engage in efficient state building without sacrificing their ideals? The US learned that state-building allocates a degree of command and control to powerbrokers operating in the shadows to launder aid money, traffic illicit narcotics, and engage in extrajudicial punishments. These clients failed to represent the liberal values foreign patrons endorsed, because the latter not only offered resources without conditions but also rewarded bad behavior. This issue is examined by looking at the case of post-2001 northern Afghanistan, where powerful warlords should have held greater control over their paramilitary forces, limited predatory behavior, and built stronger relationships with the community. Instead, warlords-turned-statesmen expanded their material and social influence in the north, while holding onto the informal instruments of racketeering and patronage that overwhelmed Western ideals and shaped the predatory state present in Afghanistan today. Moreover, paramilitaries were influenced by material, social, and normative incentives that rewarded violent and predatory behavior and further eroded already weak community control mechanisms at the subdistrict level.     

Research on Cutting Force of Ultrasonic Diamond Wire Saw

Based on impulse and vibration machining theories,a mathematical model of cutting force for the electroplated diamond ultrasonic wire saw was established using superposition principle.The differences between the cutting forces with and without ultrasonic effect were analyzed theoretically and experimentally.The results indicate that the cutting force of diamond wire increases along with the spindle speed decrease and the lateral pressure increase.The force in ultrasonic vibration cutting is about 20% to 30% less than that in conventional cutting.Also,the cutting trajectory of single diamond grit in sawing process is simulated,and the reason that the ultrasonic vibration can reduce the cutting force is explained further.     

The rise of targeted killing

Targeted killings have become a central tactic in the United States' campaigns against militant and terrorist groups in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Both ‘demand’ and ‘supply’ factors explain the rise of targeted killings. Demand for targeted killings increased as the United States faced new threats from militant groups that could not be effectively countered with conventional military force. Concerns about the political consequences of long-term military involvement overseas and American casualties led political leaders to supply more targeted killings. The conclusion discusses how this tactic may have unintended consequences as other states follow the United States use of targeted killings.     

平面杆系任意截面内力算法构造及其应用

讨论了受任意集中力、集中力偶和线性分布力作用的平面杆系结构内力分析技术.遍历单元的轴向和横向荷载特征点,生成该单元的“轴向荷载教组”和“横向荷载数组”,以此为基础,构造内力计算的“特征点截面法”和“特征点递推算法”,并进行了分析.分析结果表明:两种算法适合包含梯形分布的复杂荷载组合,是一种实用的平面杆系内力计算技术,可...     

面向诸元计算精度鉴定的二次抽样试验设计方法

针对诸元计算精度常规试验方法的缺点和不足之处,提出了"二次抽样"的试验设计方法,在一次抽样的基础上,通过对试验结果进行分析,进行第二次有针对性的抽样试验,并采用贝叶斯估计方法,对两次相关联的试验结果进行综合评价。最后采用该方法对某型炮兵指控系统的诸元计算精度进行了检验,证明了该方法的实用性和有效性。与常规试验方法相比,二次抽样法对诸元计算中各变量不同值域的权重进行了重新分配,其计算结果对被试装备的实际性能更具有指向性。     

South African defence policy: the rationale and impact of the SANDF’s primary role and conventional force design

The 2015 South African Defence Review set out to reverse the deterioration of South African National Defence Force (SANDF) capabilities. Within the South African Department of Defence (DOD) this deterioration is expressed mainly in terms of a decreasing defence budget, subsequent declining conventional capabilities and obsolete prime mission equipment. Contemporary research and defence expert debates on this theme, point out the disjuncture between policy ends and the available means, with scepticism for an increased defence budget given the DOD’s lack of internal reform and strategy adjustment. One question that remains largely unanswered in the literature regarding the decline of the SANDF, is why both the policy-makers and the SANDF have remained focused on the primary role of the military (defending territorial integrity) accompanied with an unaffordable conventional force design? This question relates to the aim of this paper and is explored by revisiting initial defence policy decisions and compromises that were made in the 1990s. It is argued that the primary role of the SANDF and its conventional force design suited the interests of both the politicians and the military, but that the drawbacks thereof have harshly caught up with the DOD.     

A Lanchester-type aggregated-force model of conventional ground combat

This article develops a Lanchester-type model of large-scale conventional ground combat between two opposing forces in a “sector”. It is shown that nonlinear Helmbold-type equations of warfare with operational losses may be used to represent the loss-rate curves that have been used in many aggregated-force models. These nonlinear differential equations are used to model the attrition of combat capability (as quantified by a so-called firepower index) in conjunction with a rate-of-advance equation that relates motion of the contact zone (or FEBA) between the opposing forces to the force ratio and tactical decisions of the combatants. This simplified auxiliary model is then used to develop some important insights into the dynamics of FEBA movement used in large-scale aggregated-force models. Different types of behavior for FEBA movement over time are shown to correspond to different ranges of values for the initial force ratio, for example, an attack will “stall out” for a range of initial force ratios above a specific threshold value, but it will “break out” for force ratios above a second specific threshold value. Such FEBA-movement predictions are essentially based on being able to forecast changes over time in the force ratio.     

ASSESSING SMALL ARMS CONTROL INITIATIVES IN EAST AFRICA

The creation of a new defence force was an essential step in South Africa's negotiated settlement. The integration of previously antagonistic forces was made more difficult by the differences in training, resources and political affiliations. The planning for the changes ended in April 1994 when a common institutional culture and camaraderie within the organisation had been created and a manageable and goal-oriented planning framework agreed upon. A second, absorption phase, then commenced, which saw MK, APLA and the TBVC forces being absorbed into structures which, though new, were mainly those of the SADF. The real shift occurred in March 1998 when a report submitted by the Chief of the National Defence Force brought about his own resignation. Power then shifted away from the conservative axis to more constitutionally inclined officers who supported the democratic transition and the military restructuring.     

Strength in Numbers: The Labour Government and the Size of the Polaris Force

Previous historical accounts have simplified the Labour government's decision to commission a four-boat strategic nuclear deterrent, or ‘Polaris force’, in early 1965. Utilising previously classified sources, this article shows that a number of key strategic concerns led the decision-making process. Nevertheless, broader economic and diplomatic considerations were also important in determining the size of the Polaris force. A tremendous balance of payments deficit and ongoing debates regarding levels of conventional and nuclear involvement in NATO certainly influenced the government's final decision. Moreover, competing strategic and economic interests resulted in continued debate throughout the decision-making process.     

Target selection in lanchester combat: Heterogeneous forces and time-dependent attrition-rate coefficients

We develop solutions to two fire distribution problems for a homogeneous force in Lanchester combat against heterogeneous enemy forces. The combat continues over a period of time with a choice of tactics available to the homogeneous force and subject to change with time. In these idealized combat situations the lethality of each force's fire (as expressed by the Lanchester attrition-rate coefficient) depends upon time. Optimal fire distribution rules are developed through the combination of Lanchester-type equations for combat attrition and deterministic optimal control theory (Pontryagin maximum principle). Additionally, the theory of state variable inequality constraints is used to treat the nonnegativity of force levels. The synthesis of optimal fire distribution policies was facilitated by exploiting special mathematical structures in these problems.     

框架建筑结构分析的超元法

提出一种框架建筑结构简化计算的新方法。这种方法的特点是 :整体结构数值分析按其连续划分单元进行 ,而单个构件又按常规有限元计算。故为复杂的空间框架结构提供了一种自由度及工作量少、适应性强的高效实用方法。     

Unpacking the various meanings of redundancy: from refining the concept to military planning

The authors engage in the debate over waste in military force structure planning by rigorously deconstructing the concept of “redundancy.” First, a typology of redundancy is constructed that provides a common framework for identifying variety among redundant structures. These are labeled “true redundancy,” “expanded capacity,” “portfolio diversification,” and “mission overlap.” Further, a number of mechanisms are identified that produce these types of structures, and show the conditions under which planners may utilize redundant structure in the search for optimization. In sum, the article provides refined concepts for analysts and planners to identify when redundancy is deleterious or beneficial.     

Missile Strategy in a Post-Nuclear Age

While the arrival of nuclear weapons coincided roughly with the development of short, medium, intermediate, and eventually intercontinental missiles, the contribution of missile technology to the deterrence equation is often lost. If nuclear weapons were eliminated, even new generation missiles with conventional payloads could struggle to render effective deterrence. But some of the physical and psychological effects commonly ascribed to nuclear weapons could still be in play. And in a world without nuclear weapons, thinking about the use and control of force from the nuclear age would also deserve renewed attention.