机载雷达探测系统效能评估模型分析

针对机载雷达的用途和功能,将机载雷达评估指标分为探测能力、目标识别能力、抗干扰能力、可靠性和可用性等5个方面.建立了机载雷达探测系统效能评估指标体系,并对评估指标进行了具体量化,建立了评估指标的数学模型,给出了雷达系统的效能综合评估模型.通过仿真分析,证明此模型正确有效.     

面向武器装备体系组合规划的集成决策优化框架

针对当前武器装备体系组合规划存在选择空间规模大、决策目标数量多等问题,提出一种集成决策优化框架,用于组合选择和规划武器装备的发展型号、时间和数量。首先对武器装备体系组合规划问题的NP-Hard和高维多目标性质进行定量化分析和公式化描述;然后采用目标规划方法将该问题构建为双目标优化模型;再基于NSGA-II多目标演化计算方法,开发面向本问题的优化算法,求得该模型的Pareto解集合;最后通过TOPSIS方法,从Pareto解集合中求取符合决策者偏好的满意解。通过某侦察预警监视体系发展规划示例,验证了当给定经验数据和决策者偏好信息后,该框架可获得符合要求的武器装备体系组合规划方案,能够支撑武器装备体系发展论证和规划。     

一种多机器人系统任务分配规划算法

针对一类可将复杂任务分解为多目标集合的任务分配问题,提出了一种基于网络图的多机器人系统任务分配规划算法。首先根据目标集合和机器人系统的初始状态,建立对应的网络图。在此基础上,将任务分配问题转换为受约束的最少成本流程问题。为保证获得目标集合的最优解,提出一种结合分支界限原理和拉格朗日松弛原理的最优求解算法。在仿真中,利用提出的算法求解随机设定位置的机器人和目标点集,仿真结果表明,提出的算法可以实现目标点集的优化分配。     

机载雷达功能仿真中地球曲率的影响

从机载雷达目标探测过程出发,构建目标回波的单程增益系数和地表漫反射的后向散射系数的数学模型,根据此模型提出机载雷达的相应性能指标.在仿真实验的基础上,分析了地球曲率对目标回波和面杂波功率的影响.仿真结果表明了该模型的正确性和有效性.     

基于弹道仿真的垂直发射型舰空导弹杀伤区模型

以垂直发射型舰空导弹为研究对象,分别建立了无控段、转弯段和制导段弹道数学模型。通过对弹道进行仿真,获取给定脱靶量的命中点集合,并拟合得到杀伤区。该模型基本满足针对不同高度、速度入侵目标相应杀伤区的解算,所得数据可作为舰艇防空作战指挥决策、编队防空队形配置和编队协同防空作战效能评估、防空火力协同的依据。     

卫星导航系统功率增强子星座优化设计与性能分析

卫星功率增强技术是提高区域导航信号抗干扰性能的一种有效措施,在卫星导航全星座中优选出卫星数量少、服务性能优的功率增强子星座,是新一代卫星导航系统建设迫切需要解决的问题。因此提出基于卫星数最少准则的功率增强子星座优化设计方法,详细介绍设计流程、数学模型及最优解搜索策略;定义了可用性水平、精度水平和覆盖范围等指标评估功率增强子星座性能;以GPS为例,分别针对覆盖点目标和区域目标两种应用背景进行功率增强子星座优化设计及性能评估。分析结果表明:全球范围内任意目标点进行功率增强需要12～17颗卫星;实现对我国沿海地区的连续覆盖需要18颗功率增强卫星;覆盖整个亚太地区则需要全星座24颗卫星都具备功率增强能力,这样才能满足其连续性和精度要求,此时最优功率增强子星座的服务范围可扩充至全球区域。     

受损目标保障价值评估与装备保障力量精确调用模型

装备保障力量的精确调用,是装备精确保障研究的重要课题.首先通过运用层次分析法建立了受损目标保障价值评估模型的层次结构,并获得指标因素的权重系数.其次,应用模糊决策的方法.得到了受损目标保障价值评估数学模型.最后通过分析装备保障力量的分类及特点,运用运筹学目标规划理论,建立了精确调用装备保障力量的数学模型.该模型为确定机动伴随保障力量的编组数量、精确调用装备保障力量提供了可行的方法.最后应用模型分析了一个实例.     

基于随机有限集理论的多传感器目标联合检测跟踪算法

针对杂波环境中的目标检测跟踪问题,提出一种基于随机有限集理论的多传感器目标联合检测跟踪算法。算法将目标状态和量测描述为随机集合,建立考虑目标出现、目标保持、目标消失等情况的目标状态随机有限集模型,以及考虑漏检和虚警的多传感器量测随机有限集模型。将目标的联合检测跟踪问题构建为目标状态集合的贝叶斯最优估计问题,并基于随机有限集理论对该贝叶斯估计算法的递推表达式进行严格理论推导。采用序贯蒙特卡罗技术实现算法的递推滤波。仿真结果验证了该算法的有效性以及算法相对于传统基于数据关联算法的性能优势。     

模糊关系方程在目标威胁分析中的应用

由于在现实世界中仿真原型会受到很多复杂的和不确定因素的影响,因此在计算机生成兵力中,目标威胁分析是一个十分重要的问题.在目标威胁分析中,对目标的威胁判断又被认为是主要的研究内容.通过运用模糊关系方程建立了在给定任意目标属性集合的情况下计算或评估其威胁值的动态数学模型,说明了如何在计算机生成兵力中运用模糊关系方程解决目标威胁分析的问题.模型具有较好的稳定性和适用性.     

复杂背景下机载雷达目标探测的模型分析

考虑机载雷达目标探测受到复杂环境因素的影响,建立复杂背景条件下机载雷达目标探测的系统模型.利用此模型提出一个机载雷达目标探测的效能指标.在效能仿真的基础上,给出复杂背景条件下诸要素对机载雷达目标探测的定量影响.仿真结果表明了该模型的正确性和有效性.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.