基于元学习的作战行动效能评估标准数据生成方法研究

部队作战行动效能评估难度大的主要原因是缺乏科学可靠的评估标准数据。为了选择适当的算法生成评估标准数据,建立了基于元学习的评估标准数据生成方法总体框架,并提出集成近似排序树方法来建立作战行动数据集元特征与算法性能排序的映射关系形成元知识,从而辅助指挥决策人员选择适当的算法生成评估标准数据。     

改进AHM-TOPSIS的智能化雷达信息处理性能评估方法北大核心

针对智能化雷达信息处理性能评估需求,从雷达信息处理包含的目标检测、目标识别和剩余杂波抑制3种技术着手,构建了智能化雷达信息处理性能评估指标体系。使用评分标度替代比例标度对属性层次模型进行改进,通过改进后的属性层次模型对指标体系进行赋权。在评估模型中引入灰色关联分析法,使用灰色关联系数替代欧式距离,利用改进的逼近理想解排序法对不同方案的智能化雷达性能进行排序,筛选出最优的智能化雷达技术方案。通过智能化雷达的工作数据验证了该方法的有效性。     

超效率数据包络分析模型在装备维修保障方案评估中的应用

针对传统数据包络分析方法在方案评估中不能对多个有效决策单元进一步排序的问题,采用超效率数据包络分析对装备维修保障方案进行评估。分析构建了评估指标体系,建立了基于超效率数据包络分析的装备维修保障方案评估模型;运用MATLAB编程,得到各方案的目标函数值θ*,依据θ*值大小对装备维修保障方案的优劣进行排序,并对无效方案提出改进办法。实际应用表明了方法的有效性。     

AHP在大型船舶动力系统总体性能分析中的应用研究

针对大型船舶动力系统总体性能各指标重要度排序的问题,提出了一种通过建立层次分析模型以构造二元对比判断矩阵的分析方法,可以将大型船舶总体性能各指标间原本错综复杂的模糊关系相对明确地表示出来,且对各指标的相对重要程度进行了较为准确的排序.并以实例介绍了该方法的应用.     

新一代小型火箭首次动力系统试车成功

11月27日,我国新一代小型液体运载火箭在中国航天科技集团,公司六院101所进行首次动力系统试车,并获圆满成功。这标志着我国唯一的火箭动力系统试验台各项性能指标达到国际一流水平,完全满足新一代运载火箭研制需要,为火箭按期首飞提供了重要保证。此次试车是在地面验证火箭动力系统整体可靠性、系统匹配性和设计正确性的唯一手段。     

基于加权核主成分TOPSIS方法的舰艇防空威胁评估

为了能快速准确地对来袭的空中目标进行威胁评估,提出了一种基于加权的核主成分TOPSIS的威胁评估排序方法。针对水面舰艇防空作战中来袭目标的特点,确定了防空威胁评估指标,并对其进行了相应的量化,利用加权核主成分分析实现指标数据的降维,之后按照核主元方差贡献率加权进行TOPSIS法对来袭目标进行威胁评估与排序。实例验证表明:利用该方法可以避免传统方法中人为确定各威胁指标权重时引入的主观性,同时,对指标数据的降维处理降低了评估的复杂性,提高了评估的实时性,为舰艇防空作战威胁评估提供了一条新的有效途径。     

双枝模糊评判在舰炮性能评估中的应用

针对舰炮武器性能指标，运用双枝模糊决策方法对舰炮武器性能进行综合评估。该方法提出了新的论域[-1，1]使评估更能符合人的思维逻辑，能够客观的对舰炮性能进行评估，通过对多中舰炮的具体参数指标进评估，得出各种舰炮的性能优劣的排序，具体的数学模型仿真表明，对舰炮武器性能的评估是行之有效的。     

双枝模糊评判在舰炮性能评估中的应用*

针对舰炮武器性能指标,运用双枝模糊决策方法对舰炮武器性能进行综合评估.该方法提出了新的论域[-1,1],使评估更能符合人的思维逻辑,能够客观的对舰炮性能进行评估,通过对多中舰炮的具体参数指标进评估,得出各种舰炮的性能优劣的排序,具体的数学模型仿真表明,对舰炮武器性能的评估是行之有效的.     

基于数据包络分析交叉效率模型的装备保障方案评估

针对装备使用过程中对具体保障方案评估研究少,传统自我评估方法存在主观偏好等问题,采用基于交叉效率的数据包络分析法(DEA),对某保障单位近10年来的装备保障方案进行了评估。分析并构建了装备保障方案评估指标体系,建立了基于DEA交叉效率的装备保障方案评估模型;通过Matlab编程计算得出各方案效率值,并进行有效性分析;根据投影原理对DEA无效方案提出改进方向;通过交叉效率模型计算得出效率评估矩阵,据此对方案进行优劣排序;对比分析了CCR模型和交叉效率模型评估结果。实际评估表明,该方法有效克服了传统DEA评估方法指标权重确立主观性强、不能对有效决策单元进一步排序的不足,从而使评估结果更客观、可信。     

基于维纳过程金属化膜电容器的可靠性评估

金属化膜电容器作为惯性约束聚变(ICF)激光装置的重要元器件,其可靠性直接影响着系统的性能。为此,很多研究者对电容器的可靠性进行了评估,然而这些评估方法得到的只是电容器的总体特性,无法给出单个电容器的可靠性水平。鉴于此,提出了融合单个电容器性能退化数据与先验性能退化数据信息的可靠性分析方法,首先采用W inner过程对其性能退化过程进行建模;其次基于B ayes方法对单个电容器的可靠性进行实时评估;最后通过一个实例表明了其研究意义和实用价值。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.