A strategic model for state compliance verification

The theory of directed graphs and noncooperative games is applied to the problem of verification of State compliance to international treaties on arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Hypothetical treaty violations are formulated in terms of illegal acquisition paths for the accumulation of clandestine weapons, weapons‐grade materials or some other military capability. The paths constitute the illegal strategies of a sovereign State in a two‐person inspection game played against a multi‐ or international Inspectorate charged with compliance verification. The effectiveness of existing or postulated verification measures is quantified in terms of the Inspectorate's expected utility at Nash equilibrium. A prototype software implementation of the methodology and a case study are presented. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 260–271, 2016     

Variables inspection for SPC‐quarantined production

When a control chart signals an out‐of‐control condition for a production process, it may be desirable to “quarantine” all units produced since the last in‐control SPC sample. This paper presents an efficient procedure for variables inspection of such “SPC quarantined” product. A Bayesian sequential inspection procedure is developed which determines whether the out of control production is of acceptable quality. By inspecting the units in reverse of the order in which they were produced, the procedure is also capable of detecting the point at which the process went out of control, thus eliminating the need to inspect units produced prior to the onset of the out of control condition. Numerical examples are presented, and the performance characteristics of the procedure are demonstrated using Monte Carlo simulation. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 159–171, 2001     

新型技术设备在护照证件识别中的应用

在各种偷渡行为中,持用伪假护照证件非法出入境是犯罪分子最常用的手段,随着新技术的发展,其伪造手段也向高技术、专业化方向发展。因此,提升护照证件的防伪技术,运用先进技术及新型设备鉴别伪假护照证件,已成为边防管理工作的关键所在。结合现阶段口岸查验中出现的伪假护照证件的主要造假手段,对先进技术及设备在边防检查工作中的应用进行了一些有益探索。     

Using container inspection history to improve interdiction logistics for illicit nuclear materials

Strengthening the United States' ability to prevent adversaries from smuggling nuclear materials into the country is a vital and ongoing issue. The prospect of additional countries, such as Iran, obtaining the know‐how and equipment to produce these special nuclear materials in the near future underscores the need for efficient and effective inspection policies at ports and border crossings. In addition, the reduction of defense and homeland security budgets in recent years has made it increasingly important to accomplish the interdiction mission with fewer funds. Addressing these complications, in this article, we present a novel two‐port interdiction model. We propose using prior inspection data as a low‐cost way of increasing overall interdiction performance. We provide insights into two primary questions: first, how should a decision maker at a domestic port use detection data from the foreign port to improve the overall detection capability? Second, what are potential limitations to the usefulness of prior inspection data—is it possible that using prior data actually harms decision making at the domestic port? We find that a boundary curve policy (BCP) that takes into account both foreign and domestic inspection data can provide a significant improvement in detection probability. This BCP also proves to be surprisingly robust, even if adversaries are able to infiltrate shipments during transit. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 433‐448, 2013     

Efficient distributions of arms‐control inspection effort

A rule that constrains decision‐makers is enforced by an inspector who is supplied with a fixed level of inspection resources—inspection personnel, equipment, or time. How should the inspector distribute its inspection resources over several independent inspectees? What minimum level of resources is required to deter all violations? Optimal enforcement problems occur in many contexts; the motivating application for this study is the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in support of the Treaty on the Non‐Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Using game‐theoretic models, the resource level adequate for deterrence is characterized in a two‐inspectee problem with inspections that are imperfect in the sense that violations can be missed. Detection functions, or probabilities of detecting a violation, are assumed to be increasing in inspection resources, permitting optimal allocations over inspectees to be described both in general and in special cases. When detection functions are convex, inspection effort should be concentrated on one inspectee chosen at random, but when they are concave it should be spread deterministicly over the inspectees. Our analysis provides guidance for the design of arms‐control verification operations, and implies that a priori constraints on the distribution of inspection effort can result in significant inefficiencies. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Periodic inspection policy with preventive maintenance

This article considers a modified inspection policy with periodic check intervals, where the unit after check has the same age as before with probability p and is as good as new with probability q. The mean time to failure and the expected number of checks before failure are derived, forming renewal-type equations. The total expected cost and the expected cost per unit of time until detection of failure are obtained. Optimum inspection policies which minimize the expected costs are given as a numerical example.     

Sequential and systematic sampling plans for the Markov‐dependent production process

Acceptance sampling plans are used to assess the quality of an ongoing production process, in addition to the lot acceptance. In this paper, we consider sampling inspection plans for monitoring the Markov‐dependent production process. We construct sequential plans that satisfy the usual probability requirements at acceptable quality level and rejectable quality level and, in addition, possess the minimum average sample number under semicurtailed inspection. As these plans result in large sample sizes, especially when the serial correlation is high, we suggest new plans called “systematic sampling plans.” The minimum average sample number systematic plans that satisfy the probability requirements are constructed. Our algorithm uses some simple recurrence relations to compute the required acceptance probabilities. The optimal systematic plans require much smaller sample sizes and acceptance numbers, compared to the sequential plans. However, they need larger production runs to make a decision. Tables for choosing appropriate sequential and systematic plans are provided. The problem of selecting the best systematic sampling plan is also addressed. The operating characteristic curves of some of the sequential and the systematic plans are compared, and are observed to be almost identical. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 451–467, 2001     

Sacrificing urban governance at the altar of political expediency: Illegal street vending in Harare

ABSTRACT

This article uses the case of illegal street vending in Harare to explore the interface between urban governance and politics. Drawing on the ideas of urban governance and informal governance, it illustrates how polarisation between the opposition political party Movement for Democratic Change-dominated municipal council and the Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front-led government is affecting governance in general and in particular Harare municipality’s ability to handle the illegal street vending problem. While the paper essentially identifies political expediency as the major reason why a lasting solution is elusive in handling the illegal street vending problem, it acknowledges that there are broad reasons for its persistence. Consequently, the article demonstrates some of the reasons why illegal street vending is difficult to end using the conventional methods and provides some alternatives.     

现代海洋法与我国边防管理工作

现代海洋法对建立世界海洋新制度、维护海洋新秩序发挥了积极作用，对我国海上边防管理工作也带来了深刻影响。为应对这种影响，需要进一步创新工作机制，规范出海船舶的许可和查验措施，健全海上航行船舶的监控识别制度，增加海上巡航监管的力度，及时防范和打击各种违法犯罪活动，以维护我国海洋权益和海洋安全稳定。     

CAN总线在装甲车辆故障诊断与状态检测系统中的应用

针对目前装甲车辆内部设备种类繁多、故障机理复杂且缺乏较为全面的实时在线故障诊断与状态检测手段这一问题，提出了一种基于CAN总线的网络化在线故障诊断与状态检测系统设计方案，进行了CAN总线通信网的短帧应用层协议开发以及系统实现。该系统具有实时数据采集、在线故障诊断和状态检测等功能，且扩展性强。该系统通过了实车试验，测试结果验证了该方案的可行性和系统工作的可靠性。     

某工厂宿舍楼建筑结构裂缝分析

在建筑密集区进行深基坑开挖,不可避免地会对周边既有建筑物产生不利影响。为了探明某工厂宿舍楼结构损坏的原因,通过现场调查、结构检测、建筑物位移监测以及核查相邻在建工程项目的施工资料,对损坏原因进行了综合分析,发现建筑物结构损坏随时间发展呈明显的阶段性变化,规律性较强。根据现场检测,结合相关勘察报告,重点分析了裂缝产生原因为建筑物所处地基受相邻工程影响产生了滑移。该案例介绍的结构损伤分析方法具有较强的参考和借鉴意义。     

公安武警边防部队非对称力量作战战法研究

在和平时期，各国武装警察的基本任务是打击各种违法犯罪活动。但是，各种反人类的违法犯罪活动是一种极少数人的行为，违法犯罪分子与武装警察的作战必然是一种非对称力量对抗的特殊作战。面对这种客观存在的非对称力量作战，公安武警边防部队要深入研究此条件下作战的基本战法。     

Bayesian inference based on partial monitoring of components with applications to preventive system maintenance

Consider a binary, monotone system of n components. The assessment of the parameter vector, θ, of the joint distribution of the lifetimes of the components and hence of the reliability of the system is often difficult due to scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. For instance, prior knowledge is often of importance and can indeed conveniently be incorporated by the Bayesian approach. It may also be important to continuously extract information from a system currently in operation. This may be useful both for decisions concerning the system in operation as well as for decisions improving the components or changing the design of similar new systems. As in Meilijson [12], life‐monitoring of some components and conditional life‐monitoring of some others is considered. In addition to data arising from this monitoring scheme, so‐called autopsy data are observed, if not censored. The probabilistic structure underlying this kind of data is described, and basic likelihood formulae are arrived at. A thorough discussion of an important aspect of this probabilistic structure, the inspection strategy, is given. Based on a version of this strategy a procedure for preventive system maintenance is developed and a detailed application to a network system presented. All the way a Bayesian approach to estimation of θ is applied. For the special case where components are conditionally independent given θ with exponentially distributed lifetimes it is shown that the weighted sum of products of generalized gamma distributions, as introduced in Gåsemyr and Natvig [7], is the conjugate prior for θ. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 551–577, 2001.     

广西边境地区非法跨国婚姻产生的原因及对策

随着中越关系的正常化和边境贸易的迅速发展，两国边民的交往更加密切。由于地缘条件、经济发展不平衡、民族传统习惯、人口性别比例等因素的影响，造成了广西边境地区非法跨国婚姻大量存在。不仅破坏了正常的出入境管理秩序，给边境地区的安全与稳定带来了隐患，而且也给公安边防部门的人口清查、遣返工作带来了很大压力。因此，在对非法跨国婚姻问题的治理上必须采取有效对策，使跨国婚姻朝着有序化、正规化方向发展，进而促进广西边境地区的和平与安全。     

Optimal lot sizing and inspection policy for an EMQ model with imperfect inspections

An EMQ model with a production process subject to random deterioration is considered. The process can be monitored through inspections, and both the lot size and the inspection schedule are subject to control. The “in-control” periods are assumed to be generally distributed and the inspections are imperfect, i.e., the true state of the process is not necessarily revealed through an inspection. The objective is the joint determination of the lot size and the inspection schedule, minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. Both discrete and continuous cases are examined. A dynamic programming formulation is considered in the case where the inspections can be performed only at discrete times, which is typical for the parts industry. In the continuous case, an optimum inspection schedule is obtained for a given production time and given number of inspections by solving a nonlinear programming problem. A two-dimensional search procedure can be used to find the optimal policy. In the exponential case, the structure of the optimal inspection policy is established using Lagrange's method, and it is shown that the optimal inspection times can be found by solving a nonlinear equation. Numerical studies indicate that the optimal policy performs much better than the optimal policy with periodic inspections considered previously in the literature. The case of perfect inspections is discussed, and an extension of the results obtained previously in the literature is presented. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 165–186, 1998     

Sequential determination of inspection epochs for reliability systems with general lifetime distributions

The problem of determining the optimal inspection epoch is studied for reliability systems in which N components operate in parallel. Lifetime distribution is arbitrary, but known. The optimization is carried with respect to two cost factors: the cost of inspecting a component and the cost of failure. The inspection epochs are determined so that the expected cost of the whole system per time unit per cycle will be minimized. The optimization process depends in the general case on the whole failure history of the system. This dependence is characterized. The cases of Weibull lifetime distributions are elaborated and illustrated numerically. The characteristics of the optimal inspection intervals are studied theoretically.     

Technical note: Reexamination of all‐or‐none inspection policies in a supply chain with endogenous product quality

This note studies the optimal inspection policies in a supply chain in which a manufacturer purchases components from a supplier but has no direct control of component quality. The manufacturer uses an inspection policy and a damage cost sharing contract to encourage the supplier to improve the component quality. We find that all‐or‐none inspection policies are optimal for the manufacturer if the supplier's share of the damage cost is larger than a threshold; otherwise, the manufacturer should inspect a fraction of a batch. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

影响内蒙古边境地区稳定发展的问题及其对策

改革开放以来 ,内蒙古边境地区社会稳定与经济发展都有了长足的进步。作为公安边防机关 ,要充分发挥其职能作用 ,继续加大工作力度 ,严厉打击各种非法活动。     

Minimizing Public Sector Corruption: The Economics of Crime,Identity Economics,and Money Laundering

Abstract

This paper offers a simple strategic framework to help governments identify various policy mechanisms to minimize public sector corruption. The paper offers a formal model that blends the economics of crime with identity economics and money laundering. It presents a partial equilibrium framework that focuses on a representative public official engaged in a mix of legal and illegal effort. The model introduces various levers a government might use to impact the costs and benefits of illegal effort. The ultimate goal is to help turn volatile vicious cycles of political instability, into steady virtuous cycles of stability, growth, and sustainable development.     

谈侦检车在处置核泄漏灾害事故中的应用

因海啸而引起的日本福岛核电站核泄漏危机,充分警示人类必须做好有效应对核泄漏事故的准备工作。核生化侦检车具有快速标定核辐射物质、确定辐射边界的功能,消防部队应研究、掌握和应用核生化侦检技术,积极做好应对今后有可能发生的核生化灾害事故的准备工作。