共查询到17条相似文献,搜索用时 78 毫秒
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在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上,结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点,分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究,得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论,为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。 相似文献
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曹维芳 《中国人民武装警察部队学院学报》2009,25(6):90-93
介绍了指数平滑法,以某地区吸毒人数为实例,进行三次指数平滑分析,对未来的趋势做出较为准确的判断预测,并对结果进行分析和评价,为边防决策提供依据. 相似文献
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指数平滑预测法应用中平滑系数的确定 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
在决策科学中 ,人们运用科学方法和手段进行预测活动 ,对科学的决策具有举足轻重的作用。而指数平滑法则是序列分析法中的一种重要方法。文章通过编制计算机程序的方法 ,实现了指数平滑预测法应用中平滑系数的确定 相似文献
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网络流量预测是网络性能管理的一个重要组成部分,一种好的预测模型能比较准确地判断网络流量的发展趋势,对网络管理起到推进作用.提出了将最速下降迭代法应用于指数平滑模型的方法,以预测误差平方和(SSE)最小为目标,构造并自动生成了最佳平滑参数,使网络流量的预测模型得以优化,增强了指数平滑模型对时间序列的适应能力,较好地解决了指数平滑预测模型中,平滑参数靠检验确定且为静态,平滑初值难以确定并导致预测偏差等同题.通过分析,证明了此模型能够较准确地预测出网络的流量,使网络管理人员对网络的性能状态有整体的把握并且能够较好地对网络性能进行监测控制,从而提高了网络的服务质量. 相似文献
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电子稳像技术的研究重点是稳像算法,介绍了电子稳像的基本概念和原理以及常用的稳像算法,并根据坦克装甲车辆的实际情况,给出了车载电子稳像实验系统的基本构架及理论方法.选用块匹配法和直线特征法作为车载电子稳像算法,选用轨迹平均法作为图像序列的平滑方法,最后介绍了稳像效果的几种评价准则,并对车载电子稳像技术研究提出了几点设想. 相似文献
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焦书清 《武警工程学院学报》2010,(2):6-7,11
基于度约束最小树算法提出了一个解决旅行商问题的算法(即两步法),针对这一算法我们进行了大量的数据实验,数据实验表明算法是非常有效的。 相似文献
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In recent years, some attention has been devoted to the application of techniques of control theory to inventory management. In particular, H. Vassian (1955) developed a model for a periodic review inventory system utilizing techniques of discrete variable servomechanisms to analyze the system in a cost-free structure. The resulting model is inherently deterministic, however, and emphasizes the control of inventory fluctuation about a safety level by selecting an appropriate order policy. Such an order policy is defined only up to an arbitrary method of forecasting customer demands. The present paper is a continuation of the model developed by Vassian in which exponential smoothing is used as a specific forecasting technique. Full recognition of the probabilistic nature of demand is taken into account and the requirement of minimizing expected inventory level is imposed. In addition, explicit formulas for the variance in inventory are derived as functions of the smoothing constant and the tradeoff between small variance and rapid system response is noted. Finally, in an attempt to remove the bias inherent in exponential smoothing, a modification of that technique is defined and discussed as an alternate forecasting method. 相似文献
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光顺样条是散乱数据拟合的理想函数,是噪声数据最优平滑的重要工具。因此,光顺样条的数学表示和计算的研究具有重要的意义。本文在一般的线性微分算子和线性泛函的情况下讨论光顺样条函数的构造和计算,通过构造一个适当的再生核Hilbert空间,使得所讨论的微分算子光顺样条成为该空间中的最小范数问题,再利用投影理论建立了光顺样条函数的再生核表示方法,并得到了插值偏差表达式。作为特例,还给出了奇次多项式光顺样条函数新的简洁的计算方法。 相似文献
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Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013 相似文献
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为适用于非定常流场计算 ,在保证时、空二阶精度的前提下 ,通过引入变系数残值光顺技术 ,提高了四步Runge Kutta方法的计算效率 ;并针对球锥简谐振动过程 ,数值比较Runge Kutta多步法和“双时间法”的计算精度。 相似文献
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The main purpose of this paper is to present numerical results of static bending and free vibration of functionally graded porous (FGP) variable-thickness plates by using an edge-based smoothed finite element method (ES-FEM) associate with the mixed interpolation of tensorial components technique for the three-node triangular element (MITC3), so-called ES-MITC3. This ES-MITC3 element is performed to eliminate the shear locking problem and to enhance the accuracy of the existing MITC3 element. In the ES-MITC3 element, the stiffness matrices are obtained by using the strain smoothing technique over the smoothing domains formed by two adjacent MITC3 triangular elements sharing an edge. Materials of the plate are FGP with a power-law index (k) and maximum porosity distributions (Ω) in the forms of cosine functions. The influences of some geometric parameters, material properties on static bending, and natural frequency of the FGP variable-thickness plates are examined in detail. 相似文献
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结合炮射导弹的性能特点 ,研究分析了传统的飞行可靠性试验法的不足 ,提出了炮射导弹飞行可靠性试验的寿命型定时截尾指数分布新方法 ,该方法的应用使试验的方法更为可行 ,结果更为合理 相似文献