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武器装备体系的作战效能呈现非线性、对抗性、动态性等特点,武器装备体系的建设发展对评估模型的应用分析提出更高的要求。由于贝叶斯网络具备对武器装备体系的效能与指标之间的非线性关系的良好映射能力、对动态过程良好的描述能力、良好的推理分析的能力,基于贝叶斯网络的作战效能评估成为了该领域目前的研究热点之一。论述了武器装备体系的作战效能评估以及贝叶斯网络的发展现状,及基于贝叶斯网络的作战效能评估方法的研究现状,指出了基于贝叶斯网络的武器装备体系作战效能评估方法的发展方向。 相似文献
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装甲车辆复杂传统部件的损伤能否及时被发现,这关系到整车战备或作战能力,系统的故障状态评估是至关重要的。将贝叶斯网络模型结合云模型理论,建立云贝叶斯网络模型,针对4个不同工况的装甲车辆进行故障状态评估。在获取贝叶斯网络初始节点时更多是依靠专家经验,往往会带来很大的误差,导致条件概率偏差过大,采用证据理论/层次分析法来优化专家经验,确定各个节点的条件概率;将层次分析法转化所得的条件概率值代入到云贝叶斯网络模型中,经过计算可以得到不同损毁等级的概率。将云贝叶斯网络模型计算结果与其他状态评估方法结果进行对比分析,结果表明,所采用的计算方法较其他方法在可靠性和准确性方面有所提高。 相似文献
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针对当前基于攻击图的网络安全风险评估方法在评估过程中考虑网络实际运行情况不全面的问题,提出了一种基于贝叶斯攻击图的网络安全风险评估方法。首先,基于贝叶斯攻击图对目标网络进行了建模;其次,结合攻击意图和原子攻击的特性,利用先验概率对属性节点的静态风险进行了评估;最后,运用贝叶斯推理方法中的后验概率对静态风险评估攻击图进行了动态更新,实现了对目标网络的动态风险评估。通过试验分析验证了该方法的可行性,可为实施网络安全防护策略提供依据。 相似文献
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混合贝叶斯网络就是允许连续节点和离散节点同时存在的贝叶斯网络。将混合贝叶斯网络应用到非协作式敌我识别系统中,建立了敌我识别的混合贝叶斯网络模型,通过混合贝叶斯网络实现多传感器敌我融合识别及识别可信度分析。仿真结果证明了混合贝叶斯网络可以很好地实现非协作式敌我识别系统的功能,并且该方法直观、准确度高,提高了敌我识别的可靠性。 相似文献
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贝叶斯网络推理在信息系统安全风险评估中的应用 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络推理的安全风险评估方法。从实际出发建立信息系统的贝叶斯网络模型,根据专家给出的先验信息,结合获得的证据信息,运用Pearl方法完成对模型的评估,给出在特定条件下模型的计算——线性推理算法。最后,以实例分析信息系统安全评估的实现过程,结果表明,该方法可行、有效。 相似文献
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In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population. 相似文献
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Lord Aikins Adusei 《African Security Review》2013,22(3):332-359
Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD). 相似文献
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Paul Rich 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2013,24(1):39-56
The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses. 相似文献
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This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels. 相似文献
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Jelmer Brouwer 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2013,24(5):835-856
This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work. 相似文献
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Aleksander Zdravkovski 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2013,24(5-6):941-963
ABSTRACTWhat was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer. 相似文献
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Christopher Davis 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(3):145-177
The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia. 相似文献
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Bettina Renz 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2013,24(1):55-77
The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation. 相似文献