基于融合先验信息的仿真交互可信度评估方法

交互行为可信是分布式LVC (Live Virtual and Constructive)仿真系统可靠运行和正确推进的基础。针对交互行为可信性问题,提出了一种贝叶斯框架下的基于融合先验信息的仿真交互可信度模型。明确了交互一致和交互可信度的基本概念,构建了交互可信判断模型;通过引入继承因子,确定不同信息的可利用程度,对分布式LVC训练仿真系统的历史信息和专家经验等先验信息进行融合,并在此基础上,通过实时交互信息测试和交互可信判断,运用贝叶斯方法得到交互可信度的后验估计。该方法可以较低的系统负载,来保证实时可靠地监测交互可信度,为分布式LVC训练仿真系统可信度问题研究提供了一种新的实用有效的方法。     

基于障碍信息的高效A-Star航路规划算法

在复杂障碍存在的情况下,针对传统A-Star航路规划算法节点扩展次数多、产生节点多、搜索效率低的缺点,提出了一种基于障碍信息的高效A-Star航路规划算法。该算法通过分析、使用障碍信息,制定合理的节点扩展策略、引入积极的航路导向机制,可有效减少节点扩展次数和扩展节点数量、提高搜索效率。仿真结果证明了算法的有效性。研究过程表明,提出的算法适用范围广、具有普遍性应用价值。     

一种基于延迟的仿真交互可信度贝叶斯评估方法

交互行为是分布式虚拟环境仿真推进的基础,交互行为可信对于系统正常运行至关重要。针对交互行为可信性问题,提出了一种基于延迟的交互可信度概率模型。从交互可信度定义出发,明确了交互可信度的内涵及判断标准,分析了交互可信度的先验分布,在此基础上通过贝叶斯方法得到仿真交互可信度的后验评估结果。该方法在降低系统监测负载的同时保证了交互可信度计算的实时性,为仿真系统可信度问题提出了一种新的思路和实用方法。     

基于服务功能链的网络功能资源调度机制设计与实现

针对于邻居网络功能节点对资源调度的影响,提出了基于服务功能链的网络功能资源调度机制GSDM。基于服务功能链,GSDM将邻居节点运行状态信息加入到调度策略中,有效刻画了网络功能连接关系对资源调度的影响。实验结果表明：GSDM有效地提高了资源调度的召回率以及精准率,并有效提高了网络功能虚拟化系统性能。     

一种改进的网格信任模型

提出了针对网格计算环境改进的信任模型,给出信任计算模型的信任值更新函数,根据网格实体的交易行为特征适当增加或减少其信任值。该模型对域内信任关系和域间信任关系分别采取不同的方法进行处理,能够评估实体与实体间的信任关系;在信任的计算中引入风险机制,防止协同作弊和诋毁的安全隐患。改进后的模型精化了信任算法的粒度,提高了信任评价的准确度。该可信度模型具有较好的可扩展性,可较好地解决网格环境中存在的某些安全问题。     

复杂仿真系统可信度评估辅助工具设计与实现

为了提高复杂仿真系统可信度评估的工作效率,保证评估活动的规范化,设计并开发了复杂仿真系统可信度评估辅助工具——CEAT(credibility evaluation assistant tool).分析了复杂仿真系统可信度评估所面临的问题及其实现自动化的迫切需要,并讨论了国内外的研究现状.详细阐述了CEAT的功能特点和总体结构设计,深入探讨了各关键模块的具体实现,并通过应用实例说明了该工具的设计和实现是合理有效的,实现了可信度评估的自动化.     

装备项目型供应链风险控制策略

项目型供应链管理模式能有效实现装备研制过程中行为主体间的优势互补和资源的优化配置,利于供应链整体效益的提高,但各种不确定性因素会导致主体间风险传递行为的发生。为提供风险控制有效对策,通过考虑节点位置重要度和属性重要度,构建了项目型供应链节点重要度评估模型;通过衡量行为主体风险识别和风险控制的努力程度,给出了行为主体抗风险努力程度的评价方法,最后提出了一种基于节点重要度和抗风险努力程度的项目型供应链利益分配策略,该策略能有效促使行为主体主动进行风险识别和风险控制,是一种"风险共担、利益共享"的项目型供应链合作博弈策略。     

基于IMM-UKF的分层航迹融合算法

为提高对机动目标的跟踪精度,通过对目标跟踪和航迹融合算法进行研究,提出了一种基于IMM-UKF的分层航迹融合算法。基于交互式多模型无迹卡尔曼滤波(IMM-UKF)算法给出了各局部节点的航迹估计方法,在此基础上,结合各局部估计值构造了系统先验统计量,实现了利用分层航迹融合算法对多个局部节点估计值的融合。仿真结果表明,该算法在实现机动目标自适应跟踪的同时,有效提高了目标跟踪精度,增强了跟踪系统的稳定性。     

飞行冲突网络演化博弈中牵制机制的研究

为有效解决飞行器冲突网络演化博弈模型背叛诱惑值较大合作行为不理想的问题,构建了飞行器冲突场景的有向网络,在此基础上提出了基于总度的牵制机制和基于聚类系数的牵制机制。在构建的有向网络中分别挑选总度和聚类系数大的节点赋予合作策略,在网络演化博弈的规则下自组织学习,为飞行器产生合作(避让)或背叛(不避让)的策略。仿真分析结果表明,提出的两种方法与随机牵制机制和特定牵制机制比较,能够将合作频率维持在较高水平,以较少的控制代价获得更好的飞行冲突解脱结果。     

基于主观综合评判的作战仿真可信度评估方法研究

可信度是作战仿真的生命线,对作战仿真系统建设全生命周期进行校核、验证与确认(verification,validation and accreditation,VVA)是确保其可信度的重要途径。合适的评估方法是进行可信度评估的前提条件。在全面分析与比较已有可信度评估方法基础上,针对作战仿真可信度评估中突出主题专家作用的特点,提出了一种基于主观综合评判的可信度评估方法,重点设计了基于专长权的主题专家权重定量计算方法。这些方法都被应用于"××作战仿真系统"的可信度评估工作中。实践表明,本文的研究对于作战仿真系统等复杂仿真系统的可信度评估非常有效。     

基于信誉度的军事信息服务选择方法

随着军事信息技术的发展,未来军事信息系统必然是基于服务思想构造的,为提高系统的可靠性与稳定性,提出了一种基于信誉度的军事信息服务选择方法。首先对军事信息服务信誉的含义和计算依据作了简要分析,然后在基础上,构建了基于信誉度的军事信息服务选择模型,并对模型的角色和操作进行了分析,最后对UDD I的扩展方法、军事信息服务信誉度的计算方法,以及基于信誉度的军事信息服务选择算法等模型实现的关键技术进行了探讨,为基于信誉度的军事信息服务选择方法的实现奠定了基础。     

试论屈原的人生观

屈原的人生观是以立志成名、追求理想、进德修业、乐观向上为主要特征的 ,表现出了胸襟宽阔、锐意进取、昂扬奋发的气概。它能够使人从中获得极大的精神鼓舞和深刻的人生启迪     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.