A chance-constrained distribution problem

The transportation model with supplies (S_i) and demands (D_i) treated as bounded variables developed by Charnes and Klingman is extended to the case where the S_i and D_i are independently and uniformly distributed random variables. Chance constraints which require that demand at the jth destination will be satisfied with probability at least β_i and that stockout at the ith origin will occur with probability less than α_i are imposed. Conversion of the chance constraints to their linear equivalents results in a transportation problem with one more row and column than the original with some of the new arcs capacitated. The chance-constrained formulation is extended to the transshipment problem.     

Toward a multi-stage information conversion model of the research and development process

Research and development activities in a business firm or government laboratory are portrayed as a multi-stage information generation and conversion process. A “basic research” phase generates opportunities, in the form of findings in a set of scientific disciplines, which are available for subsequent exploitation. It is assumed that increments to information in a subject area are stochastic, proportional to the amount of knowledge which already exists in the area, and have values which are randomly distributed. An “exploratory development” phase is viewed as a process of selecting a subset of alternative research opportunities, improving each opportunity in the direction of its applications, estimating the value of the improved opportunity and using these estimates to choose the exploratory development results to be implemented in engineering development. The “engineering development” phase makes the value of exploratory results realizable without changing value or risk. Engineering development costs are assumed to increase as value increases. If exploratory development is not successful, additional costs in engineering development must be incurred to bring the design up to a minimum desirable level. The model is intended as a step toward formulating and analyzing problems in management planning and control of the several interrelated stages of the research and development process.     

Book reviews

Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Global Order. By Harald Muller, David Fischer, and Wolfgang Kotter. SIPRI, Oxford, Oxford University Press, (1994) ISBN 0-19-329155-8, hardback, £25.00

Conventional Arms Control: Perspectives on Verification By Sergey Koulik and Richard Kokoski, SIPRI, Oxford University Press, (1994) ISBN 0-19-829149-3 and

Implementing the Comprehensive Test Ban: New Aspects of Definition, Organisation and Verification Edited by Eric Arnett, SIPRI Research Report No. 8, Oxford University Press, (1994) ISBN 019-829188-4

Military Technological Innovation and Stability in a Changing World: Politically assessing and Influencing Weapons Innovation and Military Research and Development, By Wim A. Smit, John Grin and Lev Voronkov (eds.) VU University Press, Amsterdam, Netherlands (1992), ISBN 90-5383-158-4.

Security, democracy, and development in US - Latin American relations. By Lars Schoultz, William C. Smith and Augusto Varas (eds.) Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick (USA), and London (UK) (1994). ISBN 1-56000-760-5     

Multiple-attribute decision making with partial information: The comparative hypervolume criterion

A new approach is presented for analyzing multiple-attribute decision problems in which the set of actions is finite and the utility function is additive. The problem can be resolved if the decision makers (or group of decision makers) specifies a set of nonnegative weights for the various attributes or criteria, but we here assume that the decision maker(s) cannot provide a numerical value for each such weight. Ordinal information about these weights is therefore obtained from the decision maker(s), and this information is translated into a set of linear constraints which restrict the values of the weights. These constraints are then used to construct a polytope W of feasible weight vectors, and the subsets H_i (polytopes) of W over which each action a_i has the greatest utility are determined. With the Comparative Hypervolume Criterion we calculate for each action the ratio of the hypervolume of H_i to the hypervolume of W and suggest the choice of an action with the largest such ratio. Justification of this choice criterion is given, and a computational method for accurately approximating the hypervolume ratios is described. A simple example is provided to evaluate the efficiency of a computer code developed to implement the method.     

空间碎片天基主动清除技术发展现状及趋势

随着国内外航天发射任务逐年增多,大量在轨滞留的失效航天器将成为未来空间资源有效利用所面临的一个严峻挑战。空间碎片天基主动清除技术是从根源上对空间资源化利用与安全处置的措施,将提升和加强近地空间的可持续循环利用。本文明晰了空间碎片天基主动清除的概念,分析了空间碎片天基主动清除技术的发展历程,提出了其发展过程中面临的非合作目标相对导航、协调控制和捕获方式及装置等主要问题,为我国空间碎片天基主动清除技术的发展提出了有益参考。     

Information security: Designing a stochastic‐network for throughput and reliability

Todas information and communication network requires a design that is secure to tampering. Traditional performance measures of reliability and throughput must be supplemented with measures of security. Recognition of an adversary who can inflict damage leads toward a game‐theoretic model. Through such a formulation, guidelines for network designs and improvements are derived. We opt for a design that is most robust to withstand both natural degradation and adversarial attacks. Extensive computational experience with such a model suggests that a Nash‐equilibrium design exists that can withstand the worst possible damage. Most important, the equilibrium is value‐free in that it is stable irrespective of the unit costs associated with reliability vs. capacity improvement and how one wishes to trade between throughput and reliability. This finding helps to pinpoint the most critical components in network design. From a policy standpoint, the model also allows the monetary value of information‐security to be imputed. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.     

Unsolved murders and the investigative failures of the Nigerian police force: Security and sociopolitical implications

This article focuses on the systemic failures of the Nigerian police force to unravel the mysteries surrounding homicides in the country, along with the security, social and political implications of the ongoing trend. The article draws on documented pieces of evidence of high-profile murders, along with the causes of the upsurge in murder incidences and the inhibitive factors relating to the investigative procedures of the police. The suitability of the theory of subaltern realism and the concept of third-world security predicaments in explaining the peculiarities of Nigeria’s internal security challenges is examined, along with the problems of the legitimacy of political regimes and weak borders. There is a need for the National Assembly of Nigeria to exercise its constituted powers in reawakening and supervising investigations into dormant cases of murder through its committees on police affairs, public safety and national security. The police should check its organisational failures, which may be related to using the wrong investigative approaches, low levels of information, limited resources, corrupt practices, and pressure to obtain quick results.