Public opinion: A powerful predictor of U.S. defense spending

Public opinion survey responses regarding the desirability of changes in defense spending can be compressed into a single variable, the public opinion balance, which, when accompanied by a control variable measuring the proportion of responses in the “residuum” (no opinion or keep the status quo), permits an accurate prediction of subsequent changes in the rate of change of U.S. defense outlays from the mid‐1960s through the 1980s. This finding cannot be interpreted as a simple case of “the public got what it wanted,” however, because public opinion was not autonomous or spontaneous, and defense decision makers themselves played a central role in shaping public opinion.     

THE SUPPLY PRICE OF COMMITMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE AIR FORCE ENLISTMENT BONUS PROGRAM

In fiscal year 1999, the US Air Force introduced a bonus program designed to encourage longer enlistment terms. This regime shift provides a unique opportunity to estimate the elasticity of labor supply at a new margin: the length of the employment contract. A $5000 bonus differential is estimated to increase the probability that a recruit will choose a 6‐year enlistment over a 4‐year enlistment by 30 percentage points. The program is found to be cost‐effective relative to other policies to increase man‐years.     

SOUTH AFRICA'S ANTI-TERROR LAW

This article argues that whereas the waves of democratization which enveloped the continent in the early 1990s following the collapse of Eastern European one-party socialism genera ted expectations of a ‘new dawn’ for ‘good governance’ and sustainable human development on the continent, one wave after another appears to have suffered serious setbacks. Indeed, a decade later, some of the most articulate pro-democracy leaders, who came into office on the crest of the democratic waves of the 1990s have sought to manipulate their countries' constitutions in order to perpetuate their presidential tenure. Such undemocratic behaviour will only fuel speculation in the industrialized world that the New Partnership for Africa's Development is just another decorative blue-print drawn up by beleaguered African despots in order to obtain new resource inflows at a time the international community under the hegemonic leadership of the Uni ted States will be wholly preoccupied with rebuilding post-Saddam Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian roadmap.     

群体专家按轮讨论与自由讨论的观点动力学演化比较

针对群体专家在集体讨论中的按轮讨论和自由讨论的观点动力学演化过程,采用计算机仿真实验的方法对两种模型结果进行了分析和比较。统计结果表明在相同的初始条件下,自由讨论模型采用权威专家优先,然后按观点累积变化最大者优先的发言顺序规则生成的平均观点簇数更少,并且发现15轮以后的讨论发言对各项指标改进的影响作用不大。由于自由讨论是依次串行发言,发言时间效率较低,因此实际讨论方式选择时,当人数较少,时间充裕时,宜采用自由讨论的方式,反之则宜采用按轮讨论的方式。     

记者在舆论监督中的权利与权力辨析

我国舆论监督体制还不完善 ,记者在进行批评报道的问题上存在一些误区 ,把记者的“权利”误以为行政、司法等“权力” ,从而产生了一些负面影响。通过记者在舆论监督中的“权利”与“权力”的辨析 ,树立正确的舆论监督原则 ,把握正确的舆论导向     

网络集群现象的特点及对策研究

网络集群现象是指在互联网络环境中,由某一舆论引发,多数人参与,发生观点的群体性激化,从而对现实社会产生一定的冲击和影响的事件。针对网络集群现象的特点,着重从参与主体、交互方式、传播方式、情绪表现、影响因素、处理难度等方面进行研究,并提出防范对策。     

爱民固边的战略思维论要

爱民固边战略是＂十一五＂时期公安边防部队在建设社会主义和谐社会中的一项重大战略部署。＂十二五＂时期,形势任务更加严峻,必须进一步找准爱民固边是促进边境经济社会发展的新型人民战争的战略定位,完善以战略目的、战略原则、战略力量、战略措施为主要内容的战略架构体系,有效探索＂爱民—固边—发展—固边—利民＂的战略路线图,突出＂维稳主导、服务民生、强基固本、多元联动＂等战略重点,坚持＂并轨发展、标本兼治、无缝对接＂基本战略路径,使爱民固边战略更加系统化、规范化,纵深推进,打造公安边防特有品牌,不断产生更大的政治社会价值。     

城市消防规划若干问题探讨

近几年,我国火灾形势严峻,城市发生重特大火灾事故次数和火灾直接经济损失都呈上升趋势,其主要原因在于城市消防规划落后于城市建设的发展。因此,加快城市消防规划和城市公共消防设施的发展,建立城市消防安全体系,对于提高城市预防火灾的能力至关重要。     

论治安行政指导的性质及表现形式

从治安行政法律关系、治安行政指导依据分析探讨治安行政指导的性质,从治安行政性、治安性、主动性、方式多样性等方面探讨治安行政指导特征,并对其表现形式等理论问题进行研究,有利于治安行政指导基本问题的研究。     

红色资源在公安现役部队理想信念教育中的运用

在思想观念日益多样化的今天,充分运用红色资源是深化公安现役部队理想信念教育的新途径。通过对红色资源在部队理想信念教育中优势、问题及原因的分析,对如何有效运用红色资源开展公安现役部队的理想信念教育进行了简要阐述。