Performance evaluation of a production/inventory system with periodic review and endogenous lead times

This paper considers a discrete time, single item production/inventory system with random period demands. Inventory levels are reviewed periodically and managed using a base‐stock policy. Replenishment orders are placed with the production system which is capacitated in the sense that there is a single server that sequentially processes the items one at a time with stochastic unit processing times. In this setting the variability in demand determines the arrival pattern of production orders at the queue, influencing supply lead times. In addition, the inventory behavior is impacted by the correlation between demand and lead times: a large demand size corresponds to a long lead time, depleting the inventory longer. The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, we present an exact procedure based on matrix‐analytic techniques for computing the replenishment lead time distribution given an arbitrary discrete demand distribution. Second, we numerically characterize the distribution of inventory levels, and various other performance measures such as fill rate, base‐stock levels and optimal safety stocks, taking the correlation between demand and lead times into account. Third, we develop an algorithm to fit the first two moments of the demand and service time distribution to a discrete phase‐type distribution with a minimal number of phases. This provides a practical tool to analyze the effect of demand variability, as measured by its coefficient of variation, on system performance. We also show that our model is more appropriate than some existing models of capacitated systems in discrete time. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

多平台对AAM协同制导交接班模型

通过对协同制导交接班的类型进行分析,建立了防空武器系统对AAM(Anti-aircraft Missile)协同制导交接班的坐标转换模型、误差模型及雷达截获概率模型。通过模拟产生随机误差,利用Monte-Carlo方法进行计算,得出不同误差源对协同制导交接班概率影响的定量关系。实验结果证明了所建模型的有效性,误差分析结论可作为协同制导交接班精度控制的依据。     

Making long-range planning work: the case of the US Army's 30-year strategic modernization plan

The extensive timespan of evolving assumptions about future adversaries, US military engagements, and technology inherent in the US Army's 30-year modernization strategy can overwhelm the management capacity of planners, and misdirect acquisition investments. Some military scholars have argued that long-range planning is futile due to the complexities of the global security environment. So how can the US Army manage the evolving assumptions inherent in its 30-year modernization strategy to ensure it remains a superior global force? This study will answer the above question by arguing that the US Army's 30-year modernization strategy, while emulative of a similar modernization approach in the threat-based planning environment of the Cold War, is viable if supported by a method and a tool that manage investments and planning assumptions.     

保证率点值区间估计的Monte-Carlo方法

提出了一种根据实测样本系列对保证率点值进行区间估计的Ｍｏｎｔｅ─Ｃａｒｌｏ方法。对于具有正态分布或对数正态分布的样本,首先推出总体参数的分布,然后用Ｍｏｎｔｅ─Ｃａｒｌｏ法生成总体参数系列,据此求得相应的保证率点值系列,最后通过经验分布推得在给定置信度下保证率点值的区间估计,本文还给出了一个算例。     

关节对中误差对机械臂末端定位精度影响

针对机械臂关节对中误差对机械臂末端定位精度影响进行研究。以6自由度机械臂为研究对象,利用D-H法建立了机械臂运动学模型,并建立对中误差传递数学模型。利用蒙特卡洛方法以MATLAB为平台进行了误差分布仿真实验,得出了由于对中误差引起的机械臂末端定位误差分布特点,以及在不同对中误差等级下,机械臂末端定位误差概率分布情况。为对中误差修正提供了参考基础,同时为机械臂定位精度评价提供了定量化依据。     

高超声速尖双锥流动高精度数值模拟

以25°/55°尖双锥外形的高超声速低焓层流流动模拟为例,对高阶加权紧致非线性格式模拟激波/边界层干扰流动的能力进行验证和确认。空间离散采用二阶MUSCL和三阶、五阶加权紧致非线性格式,时间离散采用二阶精度双时间步方法,通量函数采用混合Roe-Rusanov,AUSMPW+,Van Leer等,对比了不同精度空间离散格式对时间、网格收敛特性和通量函数耗散特性的影响。数值模拟结果表明采用高精度空间离散格式能在较疏的网格上获得收敛解,并能消除结果对通量函数的敏感性,但收敛需要推进更久的计算时间。数值模拟结果与实验测量结果吻合良好,满足工程精度要求。     

一种使用非等权值粒子的确定性粒子滤波算法

介绍了粒子滤波及随机分布的代表点理论,将统计学中的数论方法应用于粒子滤波,使用随机分布的均方差代表点,对粒子滤波中关键的初始粒子生成、重点密度采样及再采样过程给出了相应的代表点算法,得到了一个包含最少随机操作的、使用非等权值粒子的确定性粒子滤波算法。仿真结果表明,确定性粒子滤波算法不仅是可行的,而且其滤波性能及计算效率均有不同程度的提高。     

舵机负载模拟器惯量失配加载补偿方法

针对舵机负载力矩模拟器输出等效惯量大于被加载舵机舵面惯量的舵机加载试验情况,研究了其力矩加载补偿方法,分析了其力矩加载误差,提出了针对不同误差源的提高仿真精度的技术途径。分析结果表明,此力矩加载补偿方法现实可行,提高了试验资源的利用率,具有较好的经济效益和现实意义。     

对比较文学课程教学的思考和建议

比较文学的教学研究一直受到学界的关注,对教学内容和方法的看法并不统一。但是这些讨论主要是以研究生和重点高校的本科生为教学对象来进行的,往往忽视了占国内大多数的一般院校的教学研究。这些学校的学科起步较晚,遇到的问题和困难较多。本文立足于一般院校的中文系本科生,就比较文学的教学内容、教学重点和教学方法提出建议和想法。     

鲁棒稳定控制器的参数化设计方法

基于特征结构配置参数化方法,讨论了一类匹配的不确定线性系统的鲁棒控制问题,目的是设计鲁棒稳定控制器,使不确定闭环线性系统的特征值始终位于复平面的左半平面中某扇形区域内.给出了该鲁棒稳定控制器存在的充分条件及其参数化表示,可进一步利用其自由度满足某些设计要求.给出的数值例子,表明了鲁棒稳定控制器参数化设计方法的有效性.