改进的AHP法在装甲分队火力运用评估中的应用

针对评估对象的模糊性和不确定性,对层次分析法进行了改进,并提出了基于改进的层次分析法的装甲分队火力运用评估模型。在层次分析法基础上引入模糊集,并结合模糊评判,对装甲分队火力运用的能力进行了评估。结果表明,采用该方法进行的评估,有效避免了使用传统AHP方法构建判断矩阵时,专家对各标度间的区分把握不够准确,带来的评判误差,并取得了符合实际而又较为准确的评估结果。     

Markovian approximation for manufacturing systems of unreliable machines in tandem

This paper studies production planning of manufacturing systems of unreliable machines in tandem. The manufacturing system considered here produces one type of product. The demand is assumed to be a Poisson process and the processing time for one unit of product in each machine is exponentially distributed. A broken machine is subject to a sequence of repairing processes. The up time and the repairing time in each phase are assumed to be exponentially distributed. We study the manufacturing system by considering each machine as an individual system with stochastic supply and demand. The Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) is applied to model the process of supply. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. We employ (s, S) policy as production control. Fast algorithms are presented to solve the average running costs of the machine system for a given (s, S) policy and hence the approximated optimal (s, S) policy. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 65–78, 2001     

舰船机电系统使用故障数据分析研究

舰船机电系统在使用维修过程中所记录的故障数据通常质量不高,信息记录不完整、不准确。针对这类不完备数据,利用图示法给出了故障趋势的判定。在此基础上,分别利用齐次泊松过程、非齐次泊松过程和几何过程,对装备的历史故障数据进行了分析。结果表明,几何过程产生的拟合误差最小,并据此预测了装备的未来故障强度。     

群体可拓层次分析法在C~4ISR系统效能指标赋权中的应用

指标赋权是C4ISR系统效能评估的重要环节,提出了一种新的指标赋权方法——群体可拓层次分析法(GEAHP),较好地解决了指标赋权过程中多专家意见集结的问题,以及判断矩阵的合理构建和一致性检验问题。描述了GEAHP的基本过程,并通过实例对其正确性进行了验证。     

THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

The armed conflict in the DRC has been characterised by appalling, widespread and systematic human rights violations. It varies from civil war to a war between national armies. Much of the conflict falls between these two categories due to the involvement of foreign troops in civil strife, as well as foreign rebel groups fighting their home government's troops but on Congolese soil. The most pressing need is to cease hostilities and address the humanitarian situation in the country. Questions of justice and accountability, and issues relating to the rule of law will have to be addressed soon in order to achieve a durable peace in the country and in the region. Since there are links between different conflicts in the region, a broader solution should preferably be found. However, this would further complicate an already difficult proposition. Efforts limited to the DRC would be more feasible and could lead to similar measures in other conflict ridden countries in the region. This essay therefore discusses the available processes for justice.     

A produce‐to‐stock system with advance demand information and secondary customers

We consider a manufacturer (i.e., a capacitated supplier) that produces to stock and has two classes of customers. The primary customer places orders at regular intervals of time for a random quantity, while the secondary customers request a single item at random times. At a predetermined time the manufacturer receives advance demand information regarding the order size of the primary customer. If the manufacturer is not able to fill the primary customer's demand, there is a penalty. On the other hand, serving the secondary customers results in additional profit; however, the manufacturer can refuse to serve the secondary customers in order to reserve inventory for the primary customer. We characterize the manufacturer's optimal production and stock reservation policies that maximize the manufacturer's discounted profit and the average profit per unit time. We show that these policies are threshold‐type policies, and these thresholds are monotone with respect to the primary customer's order size. Using a numerical study we provide insights into how the value of information is affected by the relative demand size of the primary and secondary customers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

地空导弹阵地选择的模糊综合评判

选择地空导弹阵地是地空导弹部队作战指挥决策的必要环节和重要内容,阵地选择的好坏直接影响到导弹性能的发挥和防空任务的实现.由于阵地选择受到很多非量化因素的影响,单纯定性分析很难给出科学合理的评价结果,所以必须定性、定量相结合进行综合评判.通过对影响地空导弹阵地选择各因素的全面分析,建立了阵地选择的因素指标体系,给出了阵地选择的综合评判模型和评判方法,并通过实例验证了该模型和方法对评估和优选地空导弹阵地的可行性和实用性.     

基于GAHP-模糊综合评价的南海方向潜艇威胁评估

为有效解决我南海方向有限反潜能力与广域反潜要求不相适应的矛盾,提出“分区评估威胁,分类建设体系”的思路。针对潜艇威胁主要影响因素,建立潜艇威胁评估指标体系,运用GAHP-模糊综合评价相结合的方法,对潜艇威胁进行量化评估,为合理用兵,实现反潜体系的最优化建设提供依据。     

PLC在面粉厂控制系统中的应用

分析了面粉厂的特殊环境后,提出了用ＰＬＣ和微机组成控制系统。该系统可用机旁手动、集控室手动、集控室程控３种控制方式,具有顺序控制、声光报警、安全保护、故障处理及停车、工艺流程动态显示、数据自动采集和自动打印报表等功能。     

军械保障指挥自动化系统效能评估指标体系研究

在对系统结构和功能进行详细分析的基础上,构建了某级军械指挥自动化系统效能评估指标体系模型,给出了各级指标的专家判断矩阵,对其一致性进行检验,得出了各评估指标的权重。