航天测控通信系统可靠性分析的Krylov子空间投影算法

基于Markov模型对航天测控通信系统进行可靠性分析的过程中,若系统中测控通信设备数量较多,模型中的状态空间随设备数量呈指数增长,将会导致数值计算困难.提出了一种基于Krylov子空间技术的可靠性分析方法,将大规模问题投影至小规模子空间中,求得问题的近似解.实验结果证明,Krylov子空间方法的计算速度及精度优于Ross方法和前向Euler法(forward Euler method,FEM).     

神经网络和DEA方法的炮兵火力毁伤先验评估模型

提出运用BP神经网络理论和数据包络分析(DEA)方法,对炮兵火力毁伤先验评估问题进行研究。利用以往经验数据建立样本集,通过BP神经网络预测模型,对待评估的炮兵火力毁伤计划进行分析,预测其毁伤效益,再建立带有偏好锥结构的DEA评估模型,分析火力计划的可行性和合理性;最后以某部17组炮兵火力毁伤数据进行实例分析。结果表明,该模型能给出科学、明确、可靠的先验评估结果。     

The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

The building evacuation problem with shared information

In this article, the Building Evacuation Problem with Shared Information (BEPSI) is formulated as a mixed integer linear program, where the objective is to determine the set of routes along which to send evacuees (supply) from multiple locations throughout a building (sources) to the exits (sinks) such that the total time until all evacuees reach the exits is minimized. The formulation explicitly incorporates the constraints of shared information in providing online instructions to evacuees, ensuring that evacuees departing from an intermediate or source location at a mutual point in time receive common instructions. Arc travel time and capacity, as well as supply at the nodes, are permitted to vary with time and capacity is assumed to be recaptured over time. The BEPSI is shown to be NP‐hard. An exact technique based on Benders decomposition is proposed for its solution. Computational results from numerical experiments on a real‐world network representing a four‐story building are given. Results of experiments employing Benders cuts generated in solving a given problem instance as initial cuts in addressing an updated problem instance are also provided. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

在ROBINSON-LUXEMBERG 框架下的近初等过程论

本文在Ｒｏｂｉｎｓｏｎ－Ｌｕｘｅｍｂｅｒｇ框架下重建了由Ｎｅｌｓｏｎ所创立的近初等过程论,更有意义的是我们由近初等过程可找回原来的标准过程,为在此框架下运用近初等过程论做随机分析打下了基础。     

Generating Pareto‐optimal boundary points in multiparty negotiations using constraint proposal method

In this paper a constraint proposal method is developed for computing Pareto‐optimal solutions in multiparty negotiations over continuous issues. Constraint proposal methods have been previously studied in a case where the decision set is unconstrained. Here we extend the method to situations with a constrained decision set. In the method the computation of the Pareto‐optimal solutions is decentralized so that the DMs do not have to know each others' value functions. During the procedure they have to indicate their optimal solutions on different sets of linear constraints. When the optimal solutions coincide, the common optimum is a candidate for a Pareto‐optimal point. The constraint proposal method can be used to generate either one Pareto‐optimal solution dominating the status quo solution or several Pareto‐optimal solutions. In latter case a distributive negotiation among the efficient points can be carried out afterwards. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 210–225, 2001     

后方油库整体生存概率分析计算

针对我军后方油库特点,探讨了油库整体生存概率计算的基本思路和方法,分析了各类分项目标生存概率的计算方法,采用层次分析对后方油库各分项目标权值进行了详细分析计算,可为后方油库伪装防护效能评估提供依据。     

Effectiveness of (R,Q) policies in one‐warehouse multiretailer systems with deterministic demand and backlogging

Consider a distribution system with a central warehouse and multiple retailers. Customer demand arrives at each of the retailers continuously at a constant rate. The retailers replenish their inventories from the warehouse which in turn orders from an outside supplier with unlimited stock. There are economies of scale in replenishing the inventories at both the warehouse and the retail level. Stockouts at the retailers are backlogged. The system incurs holding and backorder costs. The objective is to minimize the long‐run average total cost in the system. This paper studies the cost effectiveness of (R, Q) policies in the above system. Under an (R, Q) policy, each facility orders a fixed quantity Q from its supplier every time its inventory position reaches a reorder point R. It is shown that (R, Q) policies are at least 76% effective. Numerical examples are provided to further illustrate the cost effectiveness of (R, Q) policies. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 422–439, 2000     

Optimal policies for M/M/m queue with two different kinds of (N,T)‐policies

In this paper, two different kinds of (N, T)‐policies for an M/M/m queueing system are studied. The system operates only intermittently and is shut down when no customers are present any more. A fixed setup cost of K > 0 is incurred each time the system is reopened. Also, a holding cost of h > 0 per unit time is incurred for each customer present. The two (N, T)‐policies studied for this queueing system with cost structures are as follows: (1) The system is reactivated as soon as N customers are present or the waiting time of the leading customer reaches a predefined time T, and (2) the system is reactivated as soon as N customers are present or the time units after the end of the last busy period reaches a predefined time T. The equations satisfied by the optimal policy (N*, T*) for minimizing the long‐run average cost per unit time in both cases are obtained. Particularly, we obtain the explicit optimal joint policy (N*, T*) and optimal objective value for the case of a single server, the explicit optimal policy N* and optimal objective value for the case of multiple servers when only predefined customers number N is measured, and the explicit optimal policy T* and optimal objective value for the case of multiple servers when only predefined time units T is measured, respectively. These results partly extend (1) the classic N or T policy to a more practical (N, T)‐policy and (2) the conclusions obtained for single server system to a system consisting of m (m ≥ 1) servers. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 240–258, 2000     

并行工程中的结构分析

简要介绍了并行工程的概念 ,分析了防空导弹弹体结构件传统设计、分析过程中存在的问题 ,提出了实现并发设计的途径并在实践中应用验证。结合研究与实践探索 ,提出本领域的发展设想。进一步指出 :设计与分析的并行是必然的发展趋势