美军针对高超声速武器的反导预警能力发展态势分析

高超声速武器具有飞行速度快、精确毁伤和高效突防等特点,具有重要的战略威慑和实战应用价值,它能够大幅改变未来战争的态势,已成为大国打破战略平衡、打赢未来战争的新型“杀手锏”。随着高超声速武器逐步走向战场,世界各主要国家的反导防御体系将向更高预警维度、更快反应速度和更大打击力度的天地一体联合防御方向发展。本文分析了高超声速武器作战优势及其对未来战争的影响和威胁,阐述了美军现有反导预警能力的基本架构与能力缺陷,对其未来反高超声速武器的预警能力建设及发展态势进行了研判与预测。美军“优先发展天基反导作战体系,发挥低轨卫星主体作用”的反高超声速武器发展思路对于军队反导反高超声速武器能力建设具有一定的启示和借鉴作用。     

Performances of the defense industrial base in France: the role of small and medium enterprises

This paper employs an economic and statistical approach to get an overview of the defense industrial base (DIB) in France. It allows us to identify its main characteristics and to measure the role of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). An original data-set was built, thanks to the information from the Ministry of Defense (MOD), the French Customs Central and National Administration, the Organization for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and all the most relevant organizations specialized in the development, production or maintenance, repair, and overhaul of military goods in France. Overall, the DIB turns out as being composed of about 1800 enterprises in France (subcontractors included), of which three-third are SMEs. Along with high market concentration ratios, these enterprises are characterized by a significant military/civil duality, high labor productivity rates, and intensity in Research and Development.     

国防科技风险投资基金“一体两翼”发展构想

发展国防科技风险投资基金是提高国防科技创新能力、推进武器装备投融资机制改革的重要途径。本文在论述设立国防科技风险投资基金必要性的基础上,明确了基金设立的三种基本类型,设计了"一体两翼"模式构想,为国防科技风险投资基金发展提供了遵循。     

US strategic preferences in the early twenty-first century

This article investigates how US national security planners have envisioned the emerging strategic environment during the early twenty-first century and evaluates how their perceptions of this strategic environment have changed during these years. This conceptual evolution can be seen in how defense planners define threats, identify defense priorities, and design security strategies. Five key strategic planning documents serve as the basis for this analysis and illustrate significant shifts in how the US government has envisioned its own security requirements as well as the context within which its strategic vision will need to be realized. These planning documents are: (1) Joint Vision 2020, (2) the Bush Administration's 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States, (3) the Obama Administration's 2010 National Security Strategy, (4) US Strategic Defense Guidance entitled Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21^st Century Defense, and (5) the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Joint Force 2020.     

The Shifting Determinants of Defense Spending Preferences Between 1980 and 2008

This paper analyzes defense spending preferences using ordered logit regression analysis of American National Election Survey data from 1980 through 2008. Our results indicate that as opposed to having the ideology of isolationism, political party identification towards the Republican Party or having economic stakes in defense spending always play a significant role in increased preference towards defense spending. Demographic groups such as Native Americans, Hispanics, and retired women, a demographic subgroup, display generally positive preferences towards defense spending. Somewhat surprisingly, another demographic subgroup, ‘security moms,’ do not show a preference. Our analysis also displays lower (higher) preference in the early 1990s (2000s) for defense spending compared to the year 2008.     

一种用于SEAD任务的改进型Voronoi图

根据雷达所在位置构造Delaunay三角形,取它的外心作为Voronoi图的顶点,构造常规Voronoi图,使用随机搜索算法可以为无人战斗机规划安全路径。由于战场环境威胁各异,使用常规Voronoi图不再能表征真实的SEAD任务,增大了无人战斗机的威胁,本文提出了一种新的Voronoi图的改进方法,以提高无人战斗机在执行SEAD任务时的生存概率。首先,根据可能出现的各种情况进行了分析,提出了改进型Voronoi图的构图原则。然后,提出了在不同威胁体下,基于"Delaunay多边形"构造改进型Voronoi图的方法。最后,进行了仿真。仿真算例的结果验证此方法可以明显地提高无人战斗机的生存概率。     

国防工程智能信息系统效能评估研究

在简要介绍国防工程智能信息系统组成和功能的基础上,提出了系统效能评估指标体系,分别用BP神经网络和AHP法建立了国防工程智能信息系统效能评估模型,并对系统的设备监控管理能力进行了评估。仿真结果表明,BP神经网络法克服了传统评估方法精度低、模型复杂和计算量大的缺点,可将以往的专家经验知识进行分析学习,能够实现实时方便的在线评估;AHP法对多层次的指标体系具有较强的处理能力,但是存在指标权重确定主观性强,计算量大的问题。     

Can Smart Defense work? A suggested approach to increasing risk- and burden-sharing within NATO

“Smart Defense” is NATO's new approach to risk- and burden-sharing, which has been a chronic problem within the alliance since the 1950s. Numerous solutions have been proposed, but initiatives resulting in more equitable burden-sharing have never been fully implemented. There are two driving forces influencing a county's willingness to support such initiatives – the economic theory of alliances and the risks posed by the implementation of capability sharing. The authors examine each of these and propose that rather than aiming for group consensus on the production of capabilities, NATO should focus on interoperability through support functions. This approach provides the most likely solution for connecting the forces, doctrine, procedures, standards and other factors of joint capability production such that country leaders find the risks of doing so to be politically and militarily acceptable.     

A passive method to stabilize an airborne vehicle

A method of augmenting an airborne vehicle for short-period dynamics and stability by passive means is presented in this study. A trajectory-phase disturbance rejection capability is achieved for an unguided fin-stabilized vehicle by flexible mounting of the fins to the vehicle body. The deflecting fins lag the body oscillation such that the harmonic oscillation can be quickly dampened. The amount of fin deflection may be chosen by a hinge-line location; among other things, the vehicle damping behaviour is largely determined by this choice. Linear theory is applied and 6-DOF simulations are carried out to demonstrate the approach suitability for the task.     

Israeli foreign policy and the arms race in the Middle East 1950–1960

Previous accounts of the arms race in the Middle East during the 1950s have focused on the imbalance that resulted from the ‘Czech deal’ of September 1955. While that transfer of weaponry by the Soviet Union to Egypt constituted both a historical turning point and sharp acceleration of the arms race, it was only one of several changes in the regional strategic balance of that decade. This article makes extensive use of archival material in order to identify five phases of the arms race of the 1950s and analyze the manner in which Israeli policy‐makers dealt with the exigencies of procurement during each phase. Except for a brief period following the arms deals with France in 1956 that marked the beginning of the fifth phase examined below, the Israelis never abandoned the attempt to obtain arms from the United States. Israel's success in maintaining a high degree of independence in foreign policy throughout this period was the result of arms purchases from Britain and France that marked each phase of the arms race examined here. Yet, the Israelis considered arms from both of these Western powers to be temporary substitutes for the arms relationship with the USA that came about during the 1960s.