极限概念及其发展的哲学解析

极限是微积分学的核心概念。极限概念及其发展过程中充满辨证思维,蕴含着深刻的哲学思想,体现了辨证法的联系论、对立统一律、否定之否定律。     

论化学灾害事故处置的指挥决策及其实施

化学灾害事故处置的指挥决策及其实施水平尤为重要,在分析当前指挥决策存在不足的基础上,从完善指挥决策组织、拓展依据、突出决策重点、加强人员装备,以及科学处理一些关系等方面进行了探讨。     

隧道防火涂料的研究进展与发展趋势

对隧道防火涂料的组成、工作原理、生产工艺流程及技术指标等作了简要阐述,并对近年来国内外隧道防火涂料研究中存在的问题及今后的发展方向进行了探讨与展望,认为隧道防火涂料既要满足隧道防火设计的要求,又要具有较高的性价比及环保性。     

任务分配问题的对称群方法

探讨了无人飞行器(UAV)编队的任务分配问题。任务分配是UAV协同控制的基础,其解是任务区域内各任务的一个排列。求解UAV任务分配问题的有效方法是能在合理的计算时间内找到近似最优解的启发式算法。用对称群描述UAV任务分配的搜索空间,基于右乘运算构造搜索邻域。仿真结果验证了群论禁忌搜索算法的有效性。     

基于神经网络的模糊理论在桥梁状态评估中的应用

探讨了模糊数学中的隶属函数在桥梁技术等级状态评估中的应用.在研究现有桥梁状态评估方法的基础上,把人工神经网络和模糊数学理论结合起来应用于大跨度预应力斜拉桥的等级状态评估,建立了基于三层神经元的模糊神经网络模型,并建立结构损伤度函数及等级隶属度模型,通过样本学习训练,获取评估专家的知识及直觉思维,最终确定桥梁所对应的技术状态等级.以检测的480组索力数据作为学习样本,另外4组作为验证样本进行了索力状态评估预测.计算结果表明,网络预测值与期望值吻合良好.     

基于熵理论的战场情报评估方法

熵是度量信息有效性和可靠性的重要理论工具,分析了信息熵和条件熵,并深入研究了熵作为不确定性的度量在战场情报中的评估应用,最后举例说明了既要考虑信息的价值又要考虑其风险程度这一新的情报分析方法,使得决策过程透明化,降低了决策的风险。     

Optimal maintenance policies for a safety‐critical system and its deteriorating sensor

We consider the integrated problem of optimally maintaining an imperfect, deteriorating sensor and the safety‐critical system it monitors. The sensor's costless observations of the binary state of the system become less informative over time. A costly full inspection may be conducted to perfectly discern the state of the system, after which the system is replaced if it is in the out‐of‐control state. In addition, a full inspection provides the opportunity to replace the sensor. We formulate the problem of adaptively scheduling full inspections and sensor replacements using a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted costs associated with system operation, full inspection, system replacement, and sensor replacement. We show that the optimal policy has a threshold structure and demonstrate the value of coordinating system and sensor maintenance via numerical examples. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 399–417, 2017     

Alleviating time inconsistent behaviors via a competition scheme

Under quasi‐hyperbolic discounting, the valuation of a payoff falls relatively rapidly for earlier delay periods, but then falls more slowly for longer delay periods. When the salespersons with quasi‐hyperbolic discounting consider the product sale problem, they would exert less effort than their early plan, thus resulting in losses of future profit. We propose a winner‐takes‐all competition to alleviate the above time inconsistent behaviors of the salespersons, and allow the company to maximize its revenue by choosing an optimal bonus. To evaluate the effects of the competition scheme, we define the group time inconsistency degree of the salespersons, which measures the consequence of time inconsistent behaviors, and two welfare measures, the group welfare of the salespersons and the company revenue. We show that the competition always improves the group welfare and the company revenue as long as the company chooses to run the competition in the first place. However, the effect on group time inconsistency degree is mixed. When the optimal bonus is moderate (extreme high), the competition motivates (over‐motivates) the salesperson to work hard, thus alleviates (worsens) the time inconsistent behaviors. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 357–372, 2017     

Strategy,theory, and history: Operation Husky 1943

In his 1987 work Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1987), Edward Luttwak described strategy as a field of activity characterised not only by an innately complex relationship between designs, actions and outcomes, but so too by the frequent disparity between its theory and praxis. Similar observations on this subject have since been made by Richard K. Betts, Lawrence Freedman and Antulio Echevarria II. This article will use the Allied invasion of Sicily in July–August 1943 as a vehicle through which to test these theories against a signal event in the European theatre of the Second World War. It will illustrate how Operation Husky and its aftermath are a paradigm of the confusing and often illogical course of events associated with the process of formulating strategy and waging war. In so doing it demonstrates the benefits of using strategic theory to illuminate events and so move beyond the often insular focus of campaign histories, and simultaneously reinforces the importance of military history in informing a theoretical understanding of strategy.     

基于核与灰度的区间灰数多属性群决策方法

针对属性值为区间灰数且专家权重未知、属性权重部分已知的不确定多属性群决策问题,提出了一种基于区间灰数的核和灰度的决策方法。给出了区间灰数的基于核和灰度的简化形式,充分利用区间灰数的核和灰度的信息建立优化模型求得属性的权重。在求出属性权重的基础上,运用灰色关联方法分别求取各专家的核与灰度距理想方案值的关联系数,综合两者得到专家权重,最终综合专家意见并对方案比较排序得出最优结果。鉴于此,提出一种基于区间灰数相对核与灰度的决策方法。最后以一个算例验证该方法的有效性和可行性。