基于云遗传算法的防空导弹目标分配问题

针对传统遗传算法在防空导弹目标优化分配中存在的缺陷，提出了一种更为有效的云遗传算法。通过该算法对防空导弹目标分配模型进行仿真求解，得出防空导弹射击目标的最优目标分配方案。通过算例分析，云遗传算法相比传统遗传算法收敛速度快，搜索效率高出一倍左右，对产生局部最优解情况进行了合理有效的控制，可操作性、优越性更强。     

Characteristics structure analysis on debris cloud in the hypervelocity impact of disk projectile on thin plate

In this paper, the gauge points setting is introduced in the SPH simulation to analyze the debris cloud structure generated by the hypervelocity impact of disk projectile on thin plate. Compared with the experiments, more detailed information of the debris cloud structure can be classified from the numerical simulation. However, due to the solitary dispersion and overlap display of the particles in the SPH simulation, accurate comparison between numerical and experimental results is difficult to be performed. To track the velocity and spatial distribution of the particles in the debris cloud induced from disk and plate, gauge points are locally set in the single-layer profile in the SPH model. By analyzing the gauge points’ spatial coordinate and velocity, the location and velocity of characteristic points in the debris cloud are determined. The boundary of debris cloud is achieved, as well as the fragments distribution outside the main structure of debris cloud.     

基于动态模糊综合评判的反后坐装置故障预测模型

针对反后坐装置故障预测中的诸多模糊信息和模糊因素,基于传统的模糊综合评判方法,提出将动态模糊综合评判方法用于故障预测,给出了动态权重系数及模糊关系矩阵的确定方法,以反后坐装置为例对动态模糊综合评判方法予以说明。并将模糊综合评判与产生式规则融合,利用复合推理机制提高预测结果的准确性。     

基于ANP和云模型的军事通信系统效能评估

将网络层次分析法(ANP)和云重心评判法相结合应用于军事通信系统的效能评估中,并指出有无卫星支援下军事通信系统的效能对比。首先,针对军事通信系统的特点,构建通信系统评估的指标体系,建立ANP模型;其次,根据通信系统各指标之间的关联性,采用网络层次分析法构造极限超矩阵来确定指标的权重,并与AHP确定的指标权重相比较,指出ANP提高了指标权重的科学性;最后,利用云模型处理定性指标和定量指标之间的转换,给出有卫星支援下的军事通信系统效能的提升度,并与模糊综合评判法相比较,结果证明了网络层次分析法和云重心评价法相结合在军事通信系统效能评估中的可行性和科学性。     

To wait or not to wait: Optimal ordering under lead time uncertainty and forecast updating

There has been a dramatic increase over the past decade in the number of firms that source finished product from overseas. Although this has reduced procurement costs, it has increased supply risk; procurement lead times are longer and are often unreliable. In deciding when and how much to order, firms must consider the lead time risk and the demand risk, i.e., the accuracy of their demand forecast. To improve the accuracy of its demand forecast, a firm may update its forecast as the selling season approaches. In this article we consider both forecast updating and lead time uncertainty. We characterize the firm's optimal procurement policy, and we prove that, with multiplicative forecast revisions, the firm's optimal procurement time is independent of the demand forecast evolution but that the optimal procurement quantity is not. This leads to a number of important managerial insights into the firm's planning process. We show that the firm becomes less sensitive to lead time variability as the forecast updating process becomes more efficient. Interestingly, a forecast‐updating firm might procure earlier than a firm with no forecast updating. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

稳像火控系统误差分析

通过对坦克稳像火控系统预测模型和目标运动状态测量的误差分析,提出提高测量精度和射击命中率的措施。     

基于支持向量分类的装备完好性预测模型

对抗的战场环境和任务的变化，越来越需要装备战备完好性来保障作战行动。保持或提高装备战备完好性是装备保障的核心和中心工作。利用基于结构风险最小化的支持向量分类（Support Vector Classification，SVC）方法对装备的战备完好性进行了预测，提高了机器学习方法的预测能力。并以车辆装备发动机的技术状况数据为实例，建立了预测模型，通过参数选择，提高了模型预测的正确率、命中率等指标。结论表明：支持向量分类方法是预测装备战备完好性的有效方法。     

基于云计算的航天发射场业务网络体系架构

随着信息技术的不断发展，网络信息系统正不断向云计算、大数据不断演进。本文针对当前航天发射场网络体系存在的不足，结合信息技术发展趋势，提出了基于云计算的航天发射场网络体系架构设计。同时，结合航天发射场网络体系架构现状和实际，提出了首先实现发射场中心数据处理能力云化，再逐步实现发射场装备终端云化的演进策略，最终实现无中心化的分布式网络体系架构，将为有效解决航天业务信息系统体系弹性差、体系对抗能力弱等突出问题提供可选方案。     

一种组合预测模型及预测值的模糊分级

基于多元线性回归模型及ＧＭ（１，ｎ）模型，给出了一种组合预测模型，进行了组合预测的精度分析及预测值的等级分类，并讨论了其在实际问题中的应用．     

基于预计和评估结果融合的电子装备可靠性预测方法

分析了目前获得电子装备可靠性水平的可靠性预计和评估两种方法各自的优缺点,确立了融合两种方法所得结果以解决各自方法不足的思想.基于证据决策理论,以电子装备累积故障概率作为目标集,将可靠性预计结果和评估结果分别作为两批证据对目标集进行支持.利用信息融合方法,对两个利用不同源信息得出的预计结果和评估结果进行了融合,并得到了准确、实用的可靠性预测结果.最后以某型雷达为例进行实例分析,验证此方法的可行性.