Replacing nonidentical vital components to extend system life

We consider a system that depends on a single vital component. If this component fails, the system life will terminate. If the component is replaced before its failure then the system life may be extended; however, there are only a finite number of spare components. In addition, the lifetimes of these spare components are not necessarily identically distributed. We propose a model for scheduling component replacements so as to maximize the expected system survival. We find the counterintuitive result that when comparing components' general lifetime distributions based on stochastic orderings, not even the strongest ordering provides an a priori guarantee of the optimal sequencing of components. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Dynamic order acceptance and capacity planning on a single bottleneck resource

We present a tactical decision model for order acceptance and capacity planning that maximizes the expected profits from accepted orders, allowing for aggregate regular as well as nonregular capacity. The stream of incoming order arrivals is the main source of uncertainty in dynamic order acceptance and the company only has forecasts of the main properties of the future incoming projects. Project proposals arrive sequentially with deterministic interarrival times and a decision on order acceptance and capacity planning needs to be made each time a proposal arrives and its project characteristics are revealed. We apply stochastic dynamic programming to determine a profit threshold for the accept/reject decision as well as to deterministically allocate a single bottleneck resource to the accepted projects, both with an eye on maximizing the expected revenues within the problem horizon. We derive a number of managerial insights based on an analysis of the influence of project and environmental characteristics on optimal project selection and aggregate capacity usage. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

谈算法研究

算法是计算机程序设计的核心。本文结合实际应用,通过研究算法所取得的成效,说明算法研究的必要性和重要作用。     

42－160柴油机离合器换向拨叉叉头优化设计的光弹验证

本文用光弹性实验方法验证了有限元法对４２—１６０柴油机离合器换向拨叉优化设计的结果。实验证明,有限元优化设计是正确、可靠的,效果是非常好的。     

表格驱动程序设计方法

本文提出了一种具有广泛应用前景的程序设计方法——表格驱动(Formdriven)程序设计方法(以下简称表格驱动法)。文中首先描述了表格驱动法的基本思想、解的结构;分析了这种方法的特点与适用性;剖析了基于表格驱动法的办公自动化软件ALL-IN-1的设计思想,并指出表格驱动法特别适合于设计软件开发工具。     

用非线性规划求解有限推力最优交会

利用非线性规划方法研究了航天器的有限推力最优交会问题。这种方法利用了近年来发展起来的直接优化技术,用分段多项式来表示整个轨道的状态和控制向量,将最优控制问题转化为非线性规划问题。在应用这种方法时,先将整个轨道分为若干推力段和无推力段,然后利用配置方法产生推力段的约束段,利用状态转移矩阵来产生无推力段的约束。最后,对共面轨道情况下的交会进行了数值仿真,验证了方法的有效性和鲁棒性。     

The stochastic single resource service‐provision problem

The service‐provision problem described in this paper comes from an application of distributed processing in telecommunications networks. The objective is to maximize a service provider's profit from offering computational‐based services to customers. The service provider has limited capacity and must choose which of a set of software applications he would like to offer. This can be done dynamically, taking into consideration that demand for the different services is uncertain. The problem is examined in the framework of stochastic integer programming. Approximations and complexity are examined for the case when demand is described by a discrete probability distribution. For the deterministic counterpart, a fully polynomial approximation scheme is known 2 . We show that introduction of stochasticity makes the problem strongly NP‐hard, implying that the existence of such a scheme for the stochastic problem is highly unlikely. For the general case a heuristic with a worst‐case performance ratio that increases in the number of scenarios is presented. Restricting the class of problem instances in a way that many reasonable practical problem instances satisfy allows for the derivation of a heuristic with a constant worst‐case performance ratio. Worst‐case performance analysis of approximation algorithms is classical in the field of combinatorial optimization, but in stochastic programming the authors are not aware of any previous results in this direction. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

A parallel machine replacement model

This paper considers a finite horizon parallel machine replacement problem where a fixed number of machines is in operation at all times. The operating cost for a machine goes up as the machine gets older. An older machine may have to be replaced by a new one when its operating cost becomes too high. There is a fixed order cost associated with the purchase of new machines. Machine purchase prices and salvage values may depend on the period in which they were purchased. The objective is to find a replacement plan that minimizes the total discounted cost over the problem horizon. We believe that the costs in our model are more commonly observed in practice than those previously used in the literature. The paper develops properties of optimal solutions and an efficient forward‐time algorithm to find an optimal replacement plan. A dominance property is developed that further limits the options to be considered, and a simple forecast horizon result is also presented. Future research possibilities are mentioned. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 275–287, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (http://www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10012     

A model of supply-chain decisions for resource sharing with an application to ventilator allocation to combat COVID-19

We present a stochastic optimization model for allocating and sharing a critical resource in the case of a pandemic. The demand for different entities peaks at different times, and an initial inventory for a central agency are to be allocated. The entities (states) may share the critical resource with a different state under a risk-averse condition. The model is applied to study the allocation of ventilator inventory in the COVID-19 pandemic by FEMA to different U.S. states. Findings suggest that if less than 60% of the ventilator inventory is available for non-COVID-19 patients, FEMA's stockpile of 20 000 ventilators (as of March 23, 2020) would be nearly adequate to meet the projected needs in slightly above average demand scenarios. However, when more than 75% of the available ventilator inventory must be reserved for non-COVID-19 patients, various degrees of shortfall are expected. In a severe case, where the demand is concentrated in the top-most quartile of the forecast confidence interval and states are not willing to share their stockpile of ventilators, the total shortfall over the planning horizon (until May 31, 2020) is about 232 000 ventilator days, with a peak shortfall of 17 200 ventilators on April 19, 2020. Results are also reported for a worst-case where the demand is at the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval. An important finding of this study is that a central agency (FEMA) can act as a coordinator for sharing critical resources that are in short supply over time to add efficiency in the system. Moreover, through properly managing risk-aversion of different entities (states) additional efficiency can be gained. An additional implication is that ramping up production early in the planning cycle allows to reduce shortfall significantly. An optimal timing of this production ramp-up consideration can be based on a cost-benefit analysis.     

函数变换提高灰色预测模型精度的条件

指出选择函数变换来提高模型精度主要与三个方面的因素有关：提高数据序列的光滑比、调整数据序列的级比和确保凸凹性。在调整级比方面，扩充了级比压缩变换的相关定理，并讨论了几种常用的函数变换在上述三个方面的关系。最后结合实例提出，对于变换后的数据序列若不满足这三方面的要求可以再进行函数变换以达到提高模型精度的目的。