Bayesian inference based on partial monitoring of components with applications to preventive system maintenance

Consider a binary, monotone system of n components. The assessment of the parameter vector, θ, of the joint distribution of the lifetimes of the components and hence of the reliability of the system is often difficult due to scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. For instance, prior knowledge is often of importance and can indeed conveniently be incorporated by the Bayesian approach. It may also be important to continuously extract information from a system currently in operation. This may be useful both for decisions concerning the system in operation as well as for decisions improving the components or changing the design of similar new systems. As in Meilijson [12], life‐monitoring of some components and conditional life‐monitoring of some others is considered. In addition to data arising from this monitoring scheme, so‐called autopsy data are observed, if not censored. The probabilistic structure underlying this kind of data is described, and basic likelihood formulae are arrived at. A thorough discussion of an important aspect of this probabilistic structure, the inspection strategy, is given. Based on a version of this strategy a procedure for preventive system maintenance is developed and a detailed application to a network system presented. All the way a Bayesian approach to estimation of θ is applied. For the special case where components are conditionally independent given θ with exponentially distributed lifetimes it is shown that the weighted sum of products of generalized gamma distributions, as introduced in Gåsemyr and Natvig [7], is the conjugate prior for θ. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 551–577, 2001.     

Applying Lanchester's linear law to model the Ardennes campaign

In modern warfare, many believe the decisive factor in winning a battle is seizing the right moment to shift from defense to attack, or vice versa. This paper attempts to bring that perspective to Lanchester's differential equations of warfare, and continues the application of Lanchester's linear law to the analysis of the World War II battle of Ardennes, as reported in earlier issues of Naval Research Logistics by Bracken and by Fricker. A new variable, shift time, accounting for the timing of the shift between defense and attack is explicitly included in our version of the model, and it helps obtain improved goodness of fit to historical data. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:653–661, 2001     

基于AHP和模糊数学的课程评估系统初探

给出课程评估的因素和指标体系,提出模糊数学与AHP相结合进行课程综合评价的原理与方法,使对问题的定性分析与定量分析得到有机结合,评估结果科学合理.     

自适应数据融合算法

以防空导弹指控系统作战单位为背景,通过对现有经典算法及工程化算法的分析,结合专家经验,提出了基于算法间联系的工程化自适应数据融合算法.对自适应算法的思想、规则集、算法库、推理组成和算法的实现作了详细的描述.     

D-S证据论在空中目标分类中的应用

首先叙述识别、分类空中目标时需使用多传感器融合技术,分析可利用的各类传感器和从其可得到的各种目标属性参数,以及各种数据融合方法.然后详细介绍了基于D-S证据论的3种多源信息融合分类空中目标方法,并对具体仿真应用结果作了比较.     

基于多通道通信技术的高速数据采集器的研制

主要介绍应用多通道通信技术开发研制的高速数据采集器的功能特点 ,对实际研制和使用中的几个关键技术进行了较详细的分析讨论 .应用于流场测试试验的结果表明 ,该系统速度快、稳定性好、功能齐全且自动化程度高 .该系统具有的高精度非常适合于流场测试 ,能确保测试的准确性     

基于小波变换模极大值恢复的信号消噪方法

大多数的信号常具有某种奇异性 ,并携带有随机噪声 .首先回顾了信号奇异性与小波变换模极大值之间的关系 ,然后利用信号与噪声的Lipschitz指数的符号不同 ,在S .Mallat等人工作的基础上 ,给出了从信号中去除噪声的具体算法     

PB7.0配置数据源的自动实现

在深入理解Windows注册表的基础上 ,揭示了配置ODBC型数据源的实质 ,并用程序实现了数据源的自动配置 ,从而提高了数据库应用程序的完整性和独立性     

自适应数据库应用系统的开发方法与实现

在数据库应用系统开发过程中 ,往往需要考虑系统的自适应性。介绍用PowerBuilder实现动态修改表结构、数据处理界面和打印表格格式的方法 ,从而达到使系统具有自适应性的目的。     

基于马尔科夫链的一种评价方法

应用了数理统计与随机过程理论,从分析动态系统的状态以及状态转移情况给出了一种合理的评价方法,经过实例验证,该方法效果较好.