Democracy index for Africa, 2010

ABSTRACT

Natural resource-based conflicts continue to occur in different parts of Nigeria with negative implications. This study investigated the phenomena of natural resource conflicts vis-à-vis their propensities to impact political economy and national security negatively. Data for the study were sourced from theoretical and empirical evidence. Empirical data were sourced from existing studies selected on the basis on their relevance to the study and analysed based on their content. The limitation to this approach is the obsolete and subjective nature of some the literature. This limitation was, however, addressed among others through the author’s knowledge of the issues under study. The study found that Nigeria is enmeshed in conflict over ownership, distribution, access to or competition over natural resources such as petroleum resources and agricultural land and these conflicts have undermined democracy, human rights, the economy and the nation’s security. The paper identified poor resource governance, environmental factors and poor political leadership as the causes and drivers of these conflicts. It recommends natural resource governance among others, as a way out of the problem.     

Trade,conflict and alliances

This study examines the relationship between alliance conflict and international trade. Two schools of thought exist on this issue: some prominent writers suggest that alliance conflict reduces trade between two countries (the externality cost argument), while others suggest that it increases trade between certain countries at the cost of others (the alignment incentive argument). The study empirically tests the two propositions by analyzing the data on trade and conflict during the post‐WWII period. It is found that the relationship between trade and alliance conflict is statistically significant. The externality cost phenomenon occurs to allies, whereas the alignment incentive argument is true of neutrals. In addition, the findings of this study support the fundamental assumptions and major results in the studies of trade and conflict at the dyadic level.     

A Territorial Conflict: Trade-offs and Strategies

We study a war scenario in which the winner occupies the loser’s territory. Attacking a territory increases the chance of winning, but also causes harm, which in turn decreases the territory’s value (i.e. the reward of winning). This paper highlights the effects of this trade-off on the equilibrium strategies of the warring states in a contest game with endogenous rewards. Providing both static and dynamic models, our analysis captures insights regarding strategic behavior in asymmetric contests with such conflict.     

STCN的对岸打击时间协同冲突消解研究

为验证航空兵对岸打击中时间协同计划的可行性以及快速地调整时间协同计划,建立了任务间的简单时间约束网络(STCN),并转化成权值矩阵的形式.根据权值矩阵特点,提出了一种检测STCN一致性的权值矩阵法,大大降低了算法复杂度.为加快时间协同计划的调整速度,基于检测结果,提出了一种代价最小的冲突消解方法,避免了消解过程中的重复检测问题,提高了效率,使计划调整更加快捷高效.     

Establishment,simulation and verification of firepower safety control model

On a narrow warship platform, the coordinated use of shipborne weapon systems may cause firepower conflicts, which seriously endangers the ship safety. Meanwhile, with directed-energy weapons mounted on ships, firepower conflicts between weapons become a “high probability event”. Aiming at the problem of firepower safety control, based on the research about the collision probability model of air crafts and space targets and according to the cone of fire model of conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons, this paper solved the firepower conflict probabilities between conventional weapons as well as between conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons respectively using the methods of probability theory, and established the firepower safety control model. Then the calculation of firepower conflict probability was carried out using the dimensionality reduction method based on the equivalent conversion of polar coordinates and the power series method based on Laplace transform. The simulation results revealed that the proposed model and calculation methods are effective and reliable, which can provide theoretical basis and technical support for resolution of firepower conflicts between weapons.     

基于D-S推理的灰关联通信电台识别研究

为了解决通信电台识别问题,在灰关联识别的过程中,引入D-S证据理论,通过对信号的积累和对信任度的重新分配,对识别结果进行了有效的融合,提高了辐射源的正确识别率。仿真结果表明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于DS/AHP的导弹发射阵地选择方法

战术导弹发射阵地选择是导弹作战兵力运筹的重要组成部分,其本质是一多准则多属性决策问题。传统的层次分析法无法明确描述这类问题中所蕴涵的不确定性,通过DS证据理论的引入,研究了战术导弹发射阵地选择的DS/AHP方法,应用实例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于STN的任务执行过程中的资源冲突自动消解

任务在执行过程中受到各种因素的影响,任务时间可能会偏离预定计划,在资源数量有限的情况下,由于要满足时间的约束,往往会出现时间重叠而发生资源冲突。消解这种资源冲突的一个最直接的方法是及时调整任务计划时间消解潜在的资源冲突。针对任务执行过程中冲突消解人工决策耗时较长的问题,设计了一种基于STN的任务在执行过程中的自动消解方法,通过案例仿真,证明方法是可行的,并且能够比人工决策方式节约时间。     

基于时空序贯融合的TBM拦截效果评估

基于时空信息进行了TBM拦截效果评估的研究。首先分析了拦截效果评估信息的特征,建立了TBM拦截效果评估流程;在此基础上提出了基于"空间特征级-时间决策级"思想的序贯融合评估模型;融合评估算法中,空间域选取模糊神经网络进行特征级融合,时间域选取D-S证据理论完成决策级融合,空间特征级融合模糊神经网络的各层映射函数分别由模糊隶属函数和采用贝叶斯网络的方法来获取;最后通过实验仿真了评估流程,验证了融合评估模型及融合算法的有效性。     

一种改进的证据权重确定方法

针对Dempster方法在合成高冲突证据时存在的问题,分析了现有改进方法的缺点,提出了一种新的改进方法。该方法首先利用证据之间的相似系数求出各证据的初级权重;然后引入权重折扣因子,将冲突证据的权重按折扣因子折算后并入到其他证据的权重中,得到各证据的综合权重;最后对证据加权平均后再利用D-S组合规则进行组合,通过算例比较表明改进后的方法合成结果更加有效。