基于消防响应时间满意度的消防站布局优化研究

消防站布局是否合理是及时扑灭火灾的关键,当前城市消防站规划方法主观性较大,缺乏量化数据支持,研究科学合理的城市消防站布局优化方法,具有十分重要的意义。在吸收前人研究的基础上,运用区域火灾风险评估、ARCGIS、遗传算法等,在构建消防响应时间满意度函数的基础上,构建了基于消防响应时间满意度的消防站布局优化选址方法。该方法从消防需求角度对研究区域的消防站布局进行了规划,达到用最少的消防站覆盖全部的消防需求点,以实现消防资源的最优化配置。     

Inventory control and replenishment with flexible delivery‐time upgrade

We consider a capacitated inventory model with flexible delivery upgrades, in which the seller allocates its on‐hand inventory to price‐ and delivery‐time‐sensitive customers. The seller has two decisions: inventory commitment and replenishment. The former addresses how the on‐hand inventories are allocated between the two classes of customers within an inventory cycle. The latter addresses how the inventory is replenished between inventory cycles. We develop optimal inventory allocation, upgrade, and replenishment policies and demonstrate that the optimal policy can be characterized by a set of switching curves. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 418–426, 2014     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

不确定数据流多维建模方法*

由于不确定数据流应用的出现,给传统的精确、静态数据环境下的多维建模带来了巨大挑战。针对不确定数据流动态、无限和不确定等特征,提出了一种不确定数据流多维模型。该模型中引入了不确定对象来描述不确定事实元组,并且通过定义时间维度的层次时间窗口,很好地反映了数据流的动态性和无限性,最后还对此多维不确定数据流模型的基本代数操作和分析代数操作进行了形式化定义,为不确定数据流多维查询与分析提供了理论依据。     

某型运载火箭地震响应分析及减震设计

竖立状态的运载火箭一旦遭遇地震,极易造成箭体倾倒等灾难性后果。为了确保运载火箭在地震中的安全,针对某型运载火箭,采用时程分析法对其进行地震响应分析,得到了火箭的弯矩、位移响应峰值沿箭体纵向的分布规律。分析了火箭关键位置处弯矩响应的频域特性,设计了火箭的减震措施,并分析了火箭与发射台的连接刚度、隔震支座刚度对火箭地震响应的影响规律。结果表明:火箭弯矩响应的最大值发生在靠近火箭尾段的位置,位移响应的最大值发生在火箭头部位置;改变火箭与发射台连接刚度以及在发射台底部加装隔震支座的方式可以有效地减小火箭的地震响应。     

舰炮火控雷达实测误差时序特性分析建模

针对舰炮火控雷达高精度实时仿真建模的问题,运用高斯分布和正态平稳过程的两种误差序列生成方法,建立火控雷达简化仿真模型。通过对某火控雷达实测数据误差的统计及时序相关性分析,完成误差序列仿真生成与验证,给出了实现舰炮火控雷达探测误差仿真的优选方法。实践证明,正态平稳模型的误差生成方法可以有效满足新型舰炮仿真试验火控雷达建模要求。     

利用时间窗权重进行航迹关联

提出一种利用传感器测量数据的时间窗权重进行航迹关联的方法,将目标运动状态的多维向量(如距离、方位角、俯仰角等)分解为多个一维状态标量;根据每个状态标量与时间的关系,提取两条航迹的共同测量时间区间,将其划分为若干个时间窗,计算对应时间窗内的权重;根据时间窗权重差计算每一个状态标量的航迹相似度;应用DS理论或Bayes理论进行航迹关联决策。     

一类具有时滞和Gompertz增长率的捕食系统的稳定性与Hopf分支

研究一类具有时滞和Gompertz增长率的捕食系统,通过分析系统的特征方程,得到正平衡点的局部稳定性和系统出现Hopf分支的条件,并利用中心流形定理和规范型理论,得到确定Hopf分支方向和分支周期解稳定性的计算公式．     

一类具有时滞的生态一流行病系统的稳定性和Hopf分支

讨论一类食饵染病的时滞捕食一被捕食者模型,通过分析特征方程,得到正平衡点局部稳定和Hopf分支存在的条件．同时,应用中一tl,流形定理和规范型理论研究正平衡点处Hopf分支方向和分支周期解的稳定性．最后,通过数值模拟对理论结果进行了说明．     

具有时滞的Cohen—Grossberg神经网络的Hopf分支全局存在性研究

摘要：利用泛函微分方程的度理论,研究一类具有时滞的Cohen-Grossberg神经网络的全局分支的存在性,研究结果为该类神经网络的应用设计提供理论基础．